RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2008 11:15:00 PM
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Compendium of Tanta's Posts
Tanta wrote a variety of posts. Many long, some short. Sometimes she would post a few short excerpts from articles, usually to cover for me while I was away from my desk.
To publish her first several posts, Tanta would email her article to me, and I'd publish it - so the byline says "Calculated Risk". Starting in March 2007, she started writing under her own byline.
I suggest reading the comments to some of the posts too. Tanta was quick witted, and very funny.
This is chronological.
Let Slip the Dogs of Hell 12/15/2006
On Hybrids, Teasers, and Other Mortgage Guidance Problems 12/21/2006
Information is Power, Which is Why You Don’t Get Any 1/15/2007
Tanta on "Scratch and Dent" Loans 1/31/2007
Mortgage Servicing for UberNerds 2/20/2007
A Tantamentary on "Messier Mortgages" 3/05/2007
NOTE: This is Tanta's first post under her own byline:
The Dawn of A New Era 3/21/2007
Private Mortgage Insurance for UberNerds I: The Loss Severity 3/21/2007
Cole Testimony: Cui Bono? 3/22/2007
Private Mortgage Insurance for UberNerds II: Flows, Pools, Bulks, and Captives 3/22/2007
FHA: Out of the Dark Ages 3/24/2007
Freddie Mac Reports 3/25/2007
Charlotte Observer: The Power of the Press 3/25/2007
Unwinding the Fraud for Bubbles 3/26/2007
The Other Shoe About to Drop: Subprime Servicing 3/27/2007
Braunstein Testimony on Subprime: Supply or Demand? 3/28/2007
ARM Disclosures: This Is Only a Test 3/29/2007
AP: Late Payments on Consumer Credit 3/29/2007
Dr. Goolsbee: I’ll Stop Impersonating an Economist If You Quit Underwriting Mortgage Loans 3/30/2007
Fulton Financial Alt-A Repurchases 3/31/2007
Washington Post on Michigan Foreclosures 3/31/2007
Take a Calculated Risk on Me 3/31/2007
A Walk Down the Subprime Memory Lane 4/01/2007
Hark! The Herald Angelo Sings! 4/02/2007
Tanta Makes a Confession 4/03/2007
Alt-A: Another Exceptionally Well-Disguised Blessing 4/05/2007
UBS Sues New Century 4/05/2007
While You Were Out . . . 4/06/2007
I Took a Little Calculated Risk . . . 4/07/2007
Foreclosure Sales and REO For UberNerds 4/07/2007
Unpaid Condo Dues Threaten More Foreclosures 4/09/2007
How to Catch a Falling Knife 4/10/2007
Bagholder Bondholder Liability: Can’t Have That 4/10/2007
Option ARMs: The Band Plays On 4/11/2007
Washington Post: Bailout Update 4/12/2007
Fannie Mae on 2007 ARM Resets 4/12/2007
Foreclosure Moratorium: See "Details, Devil In" 4/19/2007
FHA and Subprime: Who Is Taking the Fraud Risk? 4/13/2007
My Calculated Risk Has Just Been Sold! 4/14/2007
Saturday Box of Rocks Blogging 4/14/2007
MBS for UberNerds I: GSE Pass-Throughs 4/14/2007
Fitch on Subprime Early Defaults 4/16/2007
GSEs Announce New Subprime Take-Outs 4/17/2007
Alt-A Update: "Completely Manageable" 4/17/2007
Alt-A Update: Downey Reports 4/18/2007
Neg Am and Lender Accounting 4/18/2007
Freddie Mac's Syron on Subprime 4/18/2007
Fannie Mae's Mudd on Subprime 4/19/2007
"Bailouts" for UnterNerds: The Freddie Mac Story 4/19/2007
Foreclosures Bring the Frauds Out 4/19/2007
Alt-A Update: Bear Goes Bearish 4/19/2007
MBS For UberNerds II: REMICs, Dogs, Tails, and Class Warfare 4/20/2007
Things You Don't Need to Know About Subprime 4/20/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: I'm Not Subprime . . . 4/21/2007
Massachusetts Mortgage Summit Recommendations 4/23/2007
Mortgage Fraud Update: Wall Street Gets Fleeced By the Little Guy 4/25/2007
Alt-A Update: First Federal Reports 4/25/2007
Prime Update: Freddie Mac Delinquencies 4/25/2007
Regulatory Response Update: Hit Me Again 4/26/2007
But Is the Message Worth the Money? 4/27/2007
Ranieri on the MBS Market: It's Broke 4/28/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: Roaring Twenties Edition 4/28/2007
Subprime: The 50% Problem 4/29/2007
Subprime Update: Let the Litigation Begin 4/30/2007
Alt-A Update: AHM Reports Tail Period 4/30/2007
The New York Times Needs a Business Reporter 5/01/2007
Pending Home Sales Down 5/01/2007
Freddie Mac Reports On Cash-Outs 5/02/2007
Beazer Update: Money Can Buy Me Love 5/03/2007
New Century Update: "Hardship" Is Relative, I Guess 5/04/2007
MBS For UberNerds III: Credit Risk, Credit Enhancement, and Ratings 5/05/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 5/05/2007
Subprime Update: The Other Sorry Anecdote 5/07/2007
New Century Update: NEW Knew News 5/07/2007
Mother Theresa Update: The Ownit Story 5/08/2007
Paging Mr. Keynes 5/08/2007
HUD Proposes Ban on Seller Down Payment (Again) 5/09/2007
Unclear on the Concept 5/11/2007
U.S. Retail Sales 5/11/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 5/12/2007
Lies, Damned Lies, and Default Rates 5/13/2007
Strategic Financing: A Bridge Loan Too Far 5/14/2007
You Can Get "New Car Smell" For $3.99 at Target 5/14/2007
Subprime Update: "Turbulent" Is Today's Word 5/14/2007
Fraud and Collateral Risk Index 5/15/2007
Lender Beware 5/15/2007
Why I Am Not An Analyst 5/17/2007
Why Aren't Loans Designed For People Who Don't Need Them? 5/18/2007
Brookings on Low-Income Debt Patterns 5/19/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: The Broker 5/19/2007
Am I the Only One Who Hears the Screams? 5/20/2007
Anti-Crimes Rhymes in the Times 5/21/2007
If Option ARMs Are Outlawed, Only Outlaws Will Have Option ARMs 5/21/2007
More Mozilo 5/21/2007
MEWPEE: It's Not Just For Ferraris Any More 5/22/2007
Servicing Update: About Those Modifications . . . 5/23/2007
Stated Income Update: Dugan Opens Fire 5/23/2007
All Your Access to Money Are Belong To Us 5/25/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: Coast CEO Catches the Bus 5/26/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging II: Whalen Gets the Willies 5/26/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging III: Every Man Needs Protection 5/26/2007
Reverse Mortgages: An UberNerditorial 5/28/2007
Subprime and The Press, Version Eleventy Jillion 5/31/2007
I Bet On Losses, I Want to See Some Losses 6/01/2007
Subprime Update: We Built This City on Rock and Roll 6/01/2007
Whatever 6/01/2007
Reelin' In the Suckers 6/02/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: In Your Pension, Your Peaceful Pension . . . 6/02/2007
Economics: The Stories We Tell Ourselves 6/03/2007
The New Piggybacking: Lipstick on a FICO 6/04/2007
Fitch Report on Loan Modifications 6/04/2007
Homebuilder X: By Any Means Necessary 6/05/2007
Builders Forgive Illegal Second Liens 6/05/2007
Modifications, Buybacks, True Sales, and Puzzlement 6/07/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: Ah, What's Puzzling You? 6/09/2007
“Uneconomic Transactions,” Or Why I Hate Wall Street 6/10/2007
Efficient Markets 6/11/2007
Paulson v. Bear, Again 6/11/2007
Borrower Counseling: Where the Rubber Meets the Road 6/12/2007
BK-O-Matic 6/15/2007
Mortgage Fraud Update: Back to the Beginning 6/16/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 6/16/2007
GMAC: Still Dumber Than WaMu 6/18/2007
A Busted Slump? 6/18/2007
Hedgies Grab the Other Third Rail 6/18/2007
Fannie Mae on 2/28 Delinquencies 6/18/2007
Truth-Seekers Are Always Misunderstood 6/18/2007
Toward a Unified Theory of Asset Preservation 6/19/2007
The Drag Stops Here 6/20/2007
The Bear Stearns Reporting Contest 6/21/2007
The Pig Files: Corporate Debt is Out There 6/21/2007
Bear Stearns Update: The Love of a Mother 6/22/2007
CMO? CDO? There's a Difference? 6/22/2007
Things Are Looking Up on the Supply Side 6/22/2007
If It's Friday, Fitch Ratings Cut May Involve Bear Stearns Hedge Fund 6/22/2007
A Tale of Two Hedge Funds 6/23/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: I Smell a Rat 6/23/2007
BONG HiTS 4 BEAR* 6/26/2007
BONG HiTS 4 BILL GROSS! 6/26/2007
Bear Stearns: A Brat Sneers 6/26/2007
Subprime and CDOs: Illiquifying the Liquified 6/28/2007
Subprime and CDOs II 6/28/2007
It Depends On How You Define "Unlucky" 6/28/2007
Countrywide Subprime Second-Lien ABS Downgraded 6/28/2007
Bloomberg's Numbers 6/29/2007
Brookstreet Update: It Depends On What You Mean By "Lunch" 6/30/2007
Brookstreet Update II: "A Notional Pricing Disparity" 6/30/2007
Brookstreet Update III: The Marks Speak 6/30/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: Scenes From a Brookstreet Investors' Meeting 6/30/2007
Bloomberg: The Backyard Possum Theory of Financial Markets 7/02/2007
Mortgage Lender Quote of the Day 7/02/2007
Mortgage Fraud Watch List Wins Round 1 7/05/2007
Delinquencies and Defaults for UberNerds 7/06/2007
Saturday Rock Opera Blogging 7/07/2007
It's Not the Default, It's the Deleveraging 7/07/2007
The Compleat UberNerd 7/08/2007
More Ratings News: Moody's Downgrades 399 7/10/2007
Alt-A: The New Home of Subprime? 7/11/2007
Ooops 7/12/2007
Rating Agency Miscellany 7/12/2007
Utter Worthlessness From Chicago Fed 7/13/2007
Retail Sales, June 7/13/2007
Flight to Quality 7/13/2007
Stockpuppets 7/14/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 7/14/2007
Conforming Loan Limits: The Subprime Excuse 7/15/2007
Which Is Not What the Big Bucks Are Paid For 7/16/2007
Stunned But Not Surprised 7/16/2007
Alt-A Update: Time to Stop Telling That Story, I'd Say 7/16/2007
There's Always Something To Distract Investors 7/17/2007
Fitch: Actual Downgrades of Alt-A Trusts 7/17/2007
In Ur Boardroom Readin Ur Posts 7/18/2007
Nobody Loves You When You're Downgrading and Out 7/18/2007
News Flash: You Can Get an AAA Rating on Tranches of Junk Loan Pools 7/18/2007
WaMu Staying Committed to Subprime 7/19/2007
S&P Downgrades 419 Second Lien Classes 7/19/2007
Today's Nugget of Wisdom 7/20/2007
Today's Nugget of Hilarity 7/20/2007
Friday Night Downgrades: More Alt-A 7/20/2007
Leverage, Ratings and Forced Unwind 7/22/2007
New and Improved Tools 7/23/2007
Wall Street Heads For the Diaper Aisle 7/24/2007
It Takes One To Know One 7/24/2007
CFC Reports A Little Prime Problem 7/24/2007
Life Is Like A Box of Subprime Loans 7/25/2007
Alt-A Update: CDR Goes Mainstream 7/25/2007
Wounded Innocence 1, Seasoned Vigilance 0 7/28/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: Speechless 7/28/2007
Marginal Credit Tightening 7/30/2007
Perhaps We Should Contain Our Metaphors 7/30/2007
Metaphor Watch: Bloomberg Takes the Lead 7/30/2007
AHM: Incompetent, Dishonest, or Both? 7/30/2007
C-BASS Update: The July Margin Massacre 7/31/2007
Alt-A Update: IndyMac Reports 7/31/2007
Quote of the Day 7/31/2007
Beyond the Wall of Worry: The Pier of Pain 7/31/2007
MMI: Stabilizing 8/01/2007
More Viscous Cycle 8/01/2007
Fitch Downgrades 8/01/2007
In Which Due Diligence Is Discovered 8/02/2007
LEND Reports: Going Concern Problem 8/02/2007
MMI Update: Decliners Lead Advancers 8/02/2007
LAT on Hedge Funds 8/02/2007
Even More on Alt-A 8/02/2007
AHM Throws in the Towel 8/02/2007
MMI: Gamma Deltas the Alphas With a Beta 8/03/2007
Andrew Davidson on the Securitization Food Chain 8/03/2007
MMI: Intraday Volatility 8/03/2007
Fannie and Freddie Limiting the Bailout 8/03/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: All The Pain Money Can Buy 8/04/2007
Bonus: Saturday Poll Rocking 8/04/2007
SFAS 140: Like A Bridge Over Troubled Bong Water 8/05/2007
Stop Making Sense 8/06/2007
NYT Securitization Artwork 8/06/2007
LUM Announcement 8/06/2007
Yea, Though I Walk Through the Valley of the Shadow of the Bond Market 8/07/2007
They're Just Mortgages. We're Not Expected to Understand Them. 8/07/2007
"Nouveau Riche University" 8/07/2007
MMI: Perhaps It's Just That Time of the Month 8/08/2007
Broker Application Practices 8/09/2007
Containment Spreads to Europe 8/09/2007
"Soft Landing" Is Still Operative 8/09/2007
Techie Stuff 8/09/2007
Alt-A Update: We Prefer Subprime, Thanks 8/10/2007
That's Why They Call It a "Crunch" 8/10/2007
Floyd Norris on the Fed 8/10/2007
Quote of the Day 8/10/2007
S&P on FICOs and Purchases 8/11/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging: Guest Artist Edition 8/11/2007
Not If They Snorted It First 8/12/2007
A Story: Write Your Own Moral 8/12/2007
Quote of the Day 8/13/2007
What Goes to Jesus Comes to Jesus 8/13/2007
Thornburg's Trouble 8/14/2007
Dean Baker on Hedge Fund Bailouts 8/14/2007
MMI: Earthquakes! Funerals! Jiffy Lube! 8/14/2007
Sentinel "Money Market" Update 8/15/2007
Freddie Mac and Alt-A Purchases 8/15/2007
GMMI: And We All Know What a "Final Residing Place" Is 8/16/2007
Quote of the Day 8/16/2007
Countrywide Goes Thrifty 8/16/2007
Fannie Mae Reports on Credit Quality 8/16/2007
Lookback-ward, Angel 8/17/2007
Bail Out Countrywide! 8/17/2007
Modifications and Adverse Self-Selection 8/18/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 8/18/2007
Sunday Morning Reflections 8/19/2007
MMI: We Have Met the Waldo and It Is Subprime 8/20/2007
MMI: It's Getting Ugly Out There 8/21/2007
Misunderquantifying 8/21/2007
OTS "Kept Up At Night" 8/22/2007
Just Say No To Stated Income 8/22/2007
MMI: Calling All Tools 8/23/2007
Trouble In SIV-Lite Land 8/23/2007
Not All Modifications are Created Equal 8/23/2007
Short Sales and Short Arms 8/24/2007
Credit Crunch, Yet Monitor Litter Continues 8/25/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 8/25/2007
Sunday Gross Blogging 8/26/2007
The Global Credit Crunch Scrambles the Picture 8/27/2007
Those Other Incomprehensible Ratings 8/27/2007
MMI: The Eagle Soars or the Vulture Circles? 8/28/2007
Subprime Borrower Refi Options 8/28/2007
Another Tidbit on Refis 8/28/2007
"Delusional Borrowers" and Reality Checks 8/28/2007
MMI: The Answer Is Blowing In the Wind 8/29/2007
IndyMac Hires Retail Loan Officers 8/29/2007
Weiling About Modifications, Again 8/29/2007
Stories From the Credit Crunch 8/30/2007
Loan Modification Data 8/30/2007
Freddie Mac Q02 Report 8/30/2007
MMI: It's Official 8/31/2007
About GSE Portfolio Caps 8/31/2007
Bush's Subprime Plan 8/31/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 9/01/2007
Dear Investor 9/01/2007
Bear Stearns Fund's "Qualified Investors" 9/02/2007
More Leamer 9/03/2007
MMI: Staying Ignorant in Five Easy Steps 9/04/2007
Interagency Statement on Modifications 9/04/2007
Why S&P Is Not to Blame 9/04/2007
It's Not All Bubble Markets 9/05/2007
MMI: From the Department of You Call This Insurance? 9/06/2007
Home Equity Loans and Credit Cards 9/06/2007
MBA Foreclosure Starts and Inventory 9/06/2007
How Many Mortgages Are Brokered? 9/07/2007
Poor People Are Sharks 9/07/2007
Mortgage Origination Channels for UberNerds 9/07/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 9/08/2007
Reich on Moral Hazard 9/08/2007
Net Branching 9/09/2007
Meet the New Fox: Just Like the Old Fox 9/09/2007
MMI: The Vegas Temptation 9/10/2007
MMI: Congress Enters the Food Chain 9/11/2007
Ackerman on Rating Agencies: It's a Criminal Conspiracy 9/11/2007
FTC "Advises" About Deceptive Mortgage Ads 9/11/2007
Ready, Set, Reset 9/12/2007
WSJ on AHM Servicing 9/12/2007
In a Hole? Keep Digging! 9/12/2007
Prepayment Penalties and Bologna Sandwiches 9/13/2007
CFC's August Operational Report 9/13/2007
See CFC See FC, by BD 9/13/2007
Nerdfest! 2006 HMDA Data Analysis is Here! 9/14/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 9/15/2007
Risk Based Pricing for UberNerds 9/16/2007
MMI: Looks Like a Flotation Device is in Order Here 9/17/2007
PHH Sale Problems: Update Your Scorecard 9/18/2007
Roll Us Over, LEH Us Down 9/18/2007
LEND 10-Q: A Heapin' Helpin' of HorseHockey™ 9/18/2007
Quote of the Day 9/18/2007
The Hanging Out Revolution 9/18/2007
MMBS: Mountain-Molehill Befuddlement Syndrome 9/19/2007
GSE Portfolio Caps 9/20/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 9/22/2007
Want To Buy A Second Home? 9/23/2007
A New Bear Stearns Deal 9/24/2007
"Captain Tanta" Has a Nice Ring to It . . . 9/24/2007
MMBS: Bikes on the Balcony! 9/24/2007
A Clockwork Mortgage 9/25/2007
Undercapitalized Bond Insurers? 9/25/2007
LIBOR or SLIMBOR? 9/26/2007
Modification Update 9/26/2007
Thursday Close Harmony Blogging 9/27/2007
Who Should Pay the Rating Agencies? 9/27/2007
There's a New Nerd in Town 9/28/2007
From the Department of Credit Tightening 9/28/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 9/29/2007
What's Really Wrong With Stated Income 9/29/2007
Morgenson Watch 9/30/2007
MMBS: At a Loss 10/01/2007
More MMBS: What is "Profit"? 10/01/2007
MBA on Fraud: We're the Victims Here 10/01/2007
More Fun With Stated Income 10/02/2007
Subprime Performance: We've Entered the Boring Stage 10/02/2007
New Game 10/02/2007
Go Big Orange! 10/03/2007
Oh Look, More Innovations 10/04/2007
It's All Very Simple 10/04/2007
More Moody's Subprime Data 10/04/2007
Excellent Hedge, There, But Your Tie is Ugly 10/05/2007
Saturday Rock Blogging 10/06/2007
Just Say Yes To Cram Downs 10/07/2007
Context Is Everything 10/08/2007
Subprime 2000-2006 10/09/2007
Dugan On Bank Lending Standards 10/09/2007
One For the Moral Hazard Brigade 10/09/2007
MBS Market Data 10/10/2007
Downey Visits the Confessional 10/10/2007
HMDA Data on High Priced Loans 10/11/2007
More Subprime Mortgage Data 10/12/2007
Paulson: Shorts For BK Reform 10/12/2007
Saturday Slumming 10/13/2007
Musical SIVs 10/15/2007
Institutional Risk Analytics on MLEC 10/16/2007
Survey Shows 73% of Borrowers Are Not Crazy 10/16/2007
OFHEO: Conforming Loan Limit Will Not Drop 10/16/2007
Earning the BS at Subprime U 10/18/2007
The American Dream Strikes Back 10/18/2007
DAP for UberNerds 10/19/2007
MMI: I Am Subprime, Destroyer of Worlds 10/22/2007
Lessons From the Foreclosure Crisis 10/22/2007
BKUNA Neg Am Portfolio 10/23/2007
It's 10:00 a.m. Do You Know Where Your Loan File Is? 10/23/2007
Subprime: Winners are Losers, Too 10/24/2007
Foreclosure Predictions 10/25/2007
BoA Exits Wholesale Mortgage Business 10/25/2007
AHM v. LEH: The Revenge of Mark to Model 10/26/2007
Snow on MLEC 10/26/2007
JEC On Subprime Crisis 10/26/2007
MMI: Maternal Merrill Comes to Me 10/29/2007
Meanwhile, on the Option ARM Front 10/29/2007
Option ARM Performance 10/30/2007
Ora Pro Nobis Peccatoribus 10/30/2007
Accounting For Negative Amortization 10/31/2007
MMI: Elevated Threat 11/02/2007
Mortgage Risk Perception 11/03/2007
GM Watch, Again: Foreclosures and Fees 11/06/2007
RIHPOs 11/06/2007
Freddie Mac Cash-Out Report 11/07/2007
MMI: Smells Like Accounting Spirit 11/07/2007
Doo Diligence 11/07/2007
WaMu and The Rep War 11/08/2007
UPDATED: Lockhart to Cuomo: Unclear on the Concept 11/09/2007
WAMU Credit Default Swaps 11/09/2007
What's Wrong With Approved Appraiser Lists 11/10/2007
Veterans Day 11/11/2007
That Was Then And This Is Now 11/11/2007
Countrywide AVMs 11/13/2007
Hot Potato 11/13/2007
Deutsche Bank FC Problems and Revenge of the Nerd 11/14/2007
In Re Foreclosure Cases 11/14/2007
GM Watch: The Flap Continues 11/15/2007
GSEs Tighten Up Loan Pricing 11/16/2007
The Corporate We or the Editorial We? 11/16/2007
NAR: Repeat Buyers With No Down 11/16/2007
Fannie Mae's Credit Loss Ratio: Fuzzy Math or Fuzzy Reporter? 11/17/2007
Protections for Renters in Foreclosures 11/19/2007
Oh Good, Now We Can Fire the Intern 11/19/2007
Dear Mr. Paulson 11/21/2007
Thanks 11/22/2007
Homeowner's Insurance: Risk Shifting 11/23/2007
We're All Subprime Now 11/23/2007
In Which Floyd Meets Nina 11/23/2007
What Is "Subprime"? 11/25/2007
Shiller: A Bold New Deal? 11/25/2007
WSJ on Merrill: How Did This Happen? 11/26/2007
CFC BK Investigation: It's About Costs, Again 11/28/2007
Fitch Opens Loan Files: Results Not Pretty 11/29/2007
MGIC Tightens Alt-A 11/29/2007
Foreclosure Mills: It's Your Reputation, Stupid 12/01/2007
A New Theory of ARMs 12/03/2007
Cuomo Lifts Another Rock 12/05/2007
FHASecure, OK. FHA Modernization, Not OK. 12/05/2007
More on the Freeze Plan 12/05/2007
About Mod Re-Defaults 12/06/2007
The Plan: My Initial Reaction 12/06/2007
You Can't Make Stuff Like This Up 12/06/2007
Subprime ARM Initial Rates 12/07/2007
Bailouts and Bailins 12/09/2007
Sunday Self-Congratulatory Rock Blogging 12/09/2007
It's About Not Having To Work Very Hard 12/10/2007
Freddie Mac: DQ Loans Stay in Pools 12/11/2007
House Considers Cram Downs 12/12/2007
We're All Subprime Now, Episode XVIII 12/12/2007
As Opposed to the RepoChopper 12/14/2007
Put These People on the RepoBus 12/14/2007
One Good Bongwater Deserves Another 12/15/2007
Hey! The Fed's Ready to Regulate! 12/18/2007
93 Banks Join Fed-Anon 12/20/2007
Supply Side Friday 12/21/2007
Paulsonomics 12/21/2007
No Cliff Diving for 08-1 12/21/2007
Fastest Downgrade Contest 12/22/2007
Mud-Luscious: Balloons for UberNerds 12/23/2007
A Very Nerdy Christmas 12/25/2007
Out of Foreclosure, In Reverse 12/27/2007
Welcome to Our World 12/28/2007
Option ARM Tightening 12/28/2007
On Option ARMs 12/29/2007
Let the Short Sale Scams Begin 12/29/2007
Gambling? In A Casino? 12/31/2007
Don't Take the Bait in 2008 1/02/2008
The Un-re-dis-inter-mediation Blues 1/03/2008
Foreclosure Fraud 1/03/2008
Jingle Liens 1/05/2008
For 2008 I Nominate "Bongwater" 1/05/2008
A Rolling Loan Gathers No Loss 1/07/2008
Turns Out Judges Don't Like "Efficient" Servicers 1/08/2008
Until CR Gets Up 1/08/2008
Foreclosure Investigator 1/09/2008
Realtors Exiting The Business 1/10/2008
BAC Takes The Bait in 2008 1/11/2008
Cleveland to Mortgage Industry: You're a Public Nuisance 1/11/2008
MBA: I Can Haz Accountentz? 1/11/2008
Cuomo: Due Diligence and Disclosure 1/12/2008
Phone Hustlers* Dislike Short Sale Processes 1/13/2008
Downey Restates NPAs 1/14/2008
Option ARM Update: "This is a stated income crisis" 1/14/2008
FED: Just Another Quadrupling of Reserves 1/15/2008
Mortgage Broker Spam 1/15/2008
The Economics of Second Liens 1/16/2008
Norris: Maybe Money Would Help 1/18/2008
MBA Report On Workouts 1/18/2008
GuestNerds: The Pig and The Balance Sheet 1/19/2008
Fed: Emergency Meeting Minutes 1/22/2008
We're All Jumbo Subprime Now 1/24/2008
Conforming Loan Limit Legislation 1/25/2008
Traders: Don't Put Jumbos in my TBAs 1/25/2008
Commenting 1/26/2008
Options Theory and Mortgage Pricing 1/29/2008
More Fig Leaves 1/31/2008
Another "Significant Discount" 1/31/2008
Clockwork Mortgages, Again 1/31/2008
It Takes One to Know One 2/01/2008
Private Mortagage Insurers Ratings Actions 2/01/2008
Beazer Shuts Mortgage Company 2/01/2008
Bair on Principal Reduction Modifications 2/01/2008
Why Doesn't the IRS Just Use Pay Pal? 2/04/2008
Kroszner on Proposed Mortgage Regulation 2/04/2008
ASF: Innovative Solutions on the Table 2/05/2008
Video of the Day: Bair v. Ross 2/05/2008
Moody's Proposes New Rating System 2/06/2008
The End of Off-Balance Sheet Securitization? 2/07/2008
Lockhart: No Jumbos Without More Oversight 2/07/2008
NAR: The Punch Bowl is Back! 2/08/2008
Let's Talk about Walking Away 2/10/2008
We're All Subprime Now 2/12/2008
IndyMac: We Were Not Greedy and Stupid 2/12/2008
Buffett Bids for EBS* 2/12/2008
Project Lifeline 2/12/2008
Super Duper Senior Bonds 2/13/2008
MGIC Reports: Ugly, Ugly, Ugly 2/13/2008
Freddie Mac: Project MI Lifeline? 2/14/2008
Happy Valentine's Day 2/14/2008
Triad Visits the Confessional 2/14/2008
NAHB: More Than Just A Touch Off 2/15/2008
Sauce for the Goose 2/15/2008
LFKAJ* Update 2/16/2008
Quote of the Day 2/16/2008
Walking Away or Hiding Away? 2/17/2008
Home Overimprovement Trending Down 2/19/2008
More Junk, Less Junk 2/21/2008
It's Reception, Not Deception 2/21/2008
OTS Plan: Negative Equity Certificates 2/21/2008
MBA and Cram-Downs 2/22/2008
The BoA Bailout 2/23/2008
Banks Freezing HELOCs 2/23/2008
Recommendations for Fixing Mortgage Securitization 2/24/2008
Lost Note Affidavits & Skeletons in the Closet 2/26/2008
Frank: Bailout-As-You-Go 2/27/2008
OFHEO Lifts GSE Portfolio Caps 2/27/2008
Fannie Mae 10-K 2/27/2008
Fannie Mae New Rules for Appraisals 2/28/2008
Fannie Mae HomeSaver Advance 2/29/2008
Walking Away and Reading Delinquency Reports 3/01/2008
NCC Refuses to Subordinate 3/03/2008
GM Watch: How Not To Tell A Story 3/04/2008
Countrywide: Incompetent, Not Malicious 3/06/2008
WAMU and the Art of Moral Hazard 3/07/2008
Temporary Jumbo Conforming Loan Limits 3/07/2008
We Are ALL Subprime Now 3/07/2008
Jumbo Conforming Loan Guidelines 3/07/2008
Judge Bohm and the Culture of Incompetence 3/07/2008
The Feldman Plan: Just Get Yourself a Latte 3/08/2008
Inside the Fed Meeting 3/10/2008
Quote of the Day 3/10/2008
Foreclosure-related 401(k) Withdrawals Up 3/11/2008
Calling All Forensic Nerdologists 3/11/2008
Freddie Mac Jumbo-Conforming Guidelines 3/12/2008
Another Brilliant Idea From Congress 3/13/2008
The Frank FHA Refinance Plan 3/14/2008
The Economics of Trust 3/15/2008
MMI: We're All Icebergs Now 3/16/2008
Stop Me If You've Heard This Story Before 3/17/2008
HUD Proposal on Good Faith Estimate I: The Context 3/19/2008
Commentary 3/19/2008
USA Today's Top Forecaster 3/19/2008
NYT: Journalistic Malpractice, Again 3/20/2008
The Cayne Mutiny and the Thornburg Carry 3/21/2008
A Tale of Real Estate Predation 3/22/2008
Renters Beware 3/23/2008
The Pig at the Trough Fed 3/25/2008
Entitlement 3/25/2008
There's Always Sick People 3/26/2008
New Century's Improper Accounting 3/26/2008
The HELOC As Disability Insurance 3/27/2008
More On Chase and the Zippy Tricks 3/28/2008
If You Don't Get It, It Might Be A Joke 3/30/2008
Thornburg Puts it on the Visa 3/31/2008
Good Riddance 3/31/2008
Vintages, Revintages, and Defaults 4/01/2008
Fannie Mae Tightens Guidelines Again 4/02/2008
The Day The Subprime Died 4/02/2008
Triad Troubles 4/02/2008
EMI: Wachovia Kinda Retreats on Option ARMs 4/03/2008
Wharton on the Future of Securitization 4/03/2008
Maricopa: Do It For the Children 4/06/2008
CRL: Brokered Loans Cost (Some People) More 4/09/2008
Imaginary Gardens With Real Toads 4/10/2008
More Picking On Mortgage Brokers 4/10/2008
The State of the No Down Market 4/11/2008
Maryland Foreclosure Law Changes 4/12/2008
Off Topic 4/12/2008
The Sorry Mess That Is Alphonso Jackson's HUD 4/13/2008
HELOC Nonsense 4/13/2008
We Are NOT All Subprime Now, Thank You 4/16/2008
We're All Busta Now 4/19/2008
International City? 4/19/2008
Women as Regulators 4/20/2008
Burning Away Joins Walking Away 4/21/2008
State FC Prevention Working Group Report 4/23/2008
Brokers Complain About Their Own Opinions 4/24/2008
Subprime in Greenwich 4/25/2008
FirstFed Reports 4/25/2008
Miss Busta and the Death of Satire 4/26/2008
Walkaways Are Over Already? 4/28/2008
Another "Unnecessary" Foreclosure? No. 4/29/2008
Don't Get Lost . . . 4/29/2008
HOP Is Not A Plan 5/01/2008
A Real Live Walkaway 5/02/2008
Condo Flipper Rental Woes 5/04/2008
The Psychology of "Walking Away" 5/05/2008
Treasury Meets With Servicers 5/06/2008
Fannie Mae's 120% Refinances 5/07/2008
Severely Underwater Vehicles 5/09/2008
Sauce For The Goose 5/09/2008
A Skeptical Look At Walk Aways 5/10/2008
LIBOR Correction Coming 5/13/2008
FBI 2007 Mortgage Fraud Report 5/14/2008
A Sorry Tale of A Second Lien Security 5/17/2008
Taxes in Process of Grieving!!!!! 5/17/2008
Shiller on the Psychology of Foreclosure 5/18/2008
The Mortgage Fraud Employee Benefit Program 5/18/2008
FHA Rolls Out Risk-Based Premiums 5/19/2008
Class Action Salad 5/19/2008
Trash Outs and Cash For Keys 5/20/2008
Freddie Mac's Balance Sheet 5/20/2008
MMI: Fractured Fairy Tales 5/20/2008
Which Ratings Model is Broken? 5/21/2008
Crackdown on Foreclosed Kids? 5/21/2008
World Savings Option ARM Training Video 5/21/2008
How Not to Write a Hardship Letter 5/22/2008
UPDATED: A Congressional Speculator? 5/24/2008
Military Foreclosures 5/27/2008
NPR on Mortgage Quality Control 5/27/2008
Appraisal Tightening: No More Mailbox Money For You! 5/28/2008
BK Judge Rules Stated Income HELOC Debt Dischargeable 5/29/2008
Bloomberg's Weird Numbers 5/30/2008
More Weird Numbers 5/30/2008
Your Friday Bank Failure 5/30/2008
Another Nefarious Countrywide Plot 5/31/2008
HSBC On Mortgage Workouts 6/02/2008
"House of Pain" 6/03/2008
Bad Press Didn't Stop Lenders 6/06/2008
Mortgage Defaults Highest Since 1979 6/06/2008
FHA Going After DAP Again? 6/10/2008
Richardson Update: This Workout Smells 6/10/2008
OCC Mortgage Metrics Report 6/11/2008
FBI Diverting Resources to Mortgage Fraud 6/12/2008
When Jumbos Freeze Over 6/12/2008
OCC Report vs. Hope Now 6/13/2008
Community Bank Troubles 6/17/2008
Option ARMs: Then What? 6/18/2008
It's Not A Real RE Bust . . . 6/19/2008
GSEs Refuse To Save The Day 6/24/2008
Illinois Sues Countrywide 6/25/2008
When In Doubt, Blame the Accountants 7/01/2008
Shoot Outs . . . 7/08/2008
Lockhart on GSE Capitalization 7/08/2008
Déjà vu 7/08/2008
Pearlstein on Purists and Pragmatists 7/11/2008
Paulson Releases Statement 7/11/2008
Prepayment Penalties 7/11/2008
IndyMac Closed By FDIC 7/11/2008
Freddie and the Fed Rumors 7/12/2008
On Maes and Macs 7/12/2008
Krugman on the GSEs 7/14/2008
Perfect Timing 7/14/2008
Moody's on Modification Re-Defaults 7/14/2008
Article Reads like "Infomercial" to Tanta 7/15/2008
Open Thread 7/15/2008
Moral Hazard Meets Hazardous Manners 7/16/2008
"It's FDIC, so who gives a damn?" 7/17/2008
Quote of the Day 7/17/2008
Duelling Discourses of Debt 7/20/2008
Brooks on Morgenson on McLeod 7/22/2008
Good For the Wall Street Journal! 7/22/2008
Downey's "Retention Mods" Performance 7/24/2008
The "Foreclosure Crisis" and Exploitation of a Suicide 7/25/2008
Appraisal Fraud at IndyMac 7/25/2008
Foreclosure Suicide Update: The Vultures Circle 7/26/2008
If This Is Victory 7/27/2008
Fraud in the 2008 Mortgage Vintage 7/30/2008
News of the Weird: Credit Union Failure 7/31/2008
IndyMac Holding Company Files BK 8/01/2008
Your Ownership Society In Action 8/01/2008
Your Friday Bank Failure 8/01/2008
FHA Personal Accounts 8/02/2008
Freddie Mac Foreclosure Timelines 8/03/2008
Open Thread 8/03/2008
What Isn't Wrong With Hope for Homeowners 8/04/2008
MMI: Krugman Catches Tanta Asleep 8/04/2008
NYT Hit Job on Freddie Mac 8/05/2008
WaMu Sued For Failing to Work Out Loan 8/05/2008
Freddie Fights Back 8/05/2008
2007 Vintage: Nowhere to Go? 8/07/2008
Another Version of the Infamous Syron Memo Dust-Up 8/07/2008
Too Much Risk or Too Little? 8/07/2008
Why We Have a Foreclosure Crisis in the First Place 8/08/2008
Fannie Mae Push-Back 8/08/2008
Fannie Mae: Q2 Ended in June, but July was Worse 8/08/2008
Trouble at Corporate Credit Unions 8/11/2008
Another Modification Horror Story 8/11/2008
Reflections on Alt-A 8/11/2008
Silliness on Alt-A 8/11/2008
We're All Not Golfers Now 8/12/2008
Subprime and Alt-A: The End of One Crisis and the Beginning of Another 8/12/2008
Reset Vs. Recast, Or Why Charts Don't Match 8/13/2008
My How Time Flies 8/13/2008
Another Reporter Gets Pwn3d* 8/15/2008
A Salute to the Ownership Society 8/15/2008
Default Statistics, Or Mortgage Math Is Hard 8/16/2008
Wingin' It at the IRS 8/17/2008
FDIC Recalls the Retired 8/17/2008
Mortgage Fraud News From Orange County, Nigeria 8/19/2008
FDIC Mod Plan: Welcome to the Real World 8/21/2008
MTI: WaPo Hears Mortgage Voices 8/22/2008
NYT: The GSEs Invent the Risk Premium 8/25/2008
More Advice on Hardship Letters 8/26/2008
We Get Mail 8/27/2008
Some Plan 8/27/2008
IndyMac Mods: Principal Forbearance Vs. Reduction 8/29/2008
The End is Nigh 8/29/2008
They Could Call It Moronic 9/02/2008
We're All Fraudulently Induced Now 9/05/2008
In a Word . . . 9/08/2008
Freddie Mac and the "Two Year Rule" 9/09/2008
Actually, They Hate You Too 9/10/2008
Mortgage Pig™ Fights Back 9/12/2008
Loan Modifications: Anecdotes and Data 9/13/2008
Gretchen's Modest Proposal 9/15/2008
What We Should Get For $700 Billion 9/21/2008
Good Morning 10/09/2008
Tanta's final post:
IndyMac-FDIC Mortgage Modification Plan: Still in the Real World 10/23/2008
And she concluded:
On a personal note: I was in the hospital earlier this week, and I'll be in and out for treatment on an out-patient basis tomorrow and early next week. It's chemo again, unfortunately. Even though I did leave the hospital with better pain pills than I had (yay!), I have no idea when I'll be able to post again. I suspect that if you keep your expectations at or below zero for the next week or so, you're unlikely to be disappointed. And now it's nap time . . .
Manhattan: Office Space for Lease Doubles
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2008 08:45:00 PM
From the NY Times: Manhattan Awash in Open Office Space
Almost 16 million square feet is currently listed as available in large blocks in 68 office buildings in Manhattan, according to Colliers ABR, a commercial brokerage firm. That is nearly double the space available a year ago, both in terms of the number of large office blocks — which in New York usually means 100,000 square feet or more — and in terms of total square feet.And just like in the previous downturn, sublease space is flooding the market:
By far the biggest increase in availability has been in the sublease market. Currently, at least 16 large office blocks are being marketed for sublease in Manhattan, up from just 3 listed at this time last year, according to Colliers ABR.And rents are down sharply:
Mr. Colacino [president of Studley, a real estate brokerage firm] estimates that the actual rents on deals signed in the last three months are down by as much as 20 to 30 percent from the going rents at the end of the summer ...There is much more in the article, and it sounds like the situation will get worse next year.
GM Requests $4 Billion to Survive 2008
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2008 04:13:00 PM
From Bloomberg: GM Asks U.S. Lawmakers for Up to $18 Billion in Aid
General Motors Corp. asked Congress for as much as $12 billion in loans to provide adequate funding through 2009, as well as a $6 billion line of credit should industry conditions worsen.The WSJ headline is:
...
GM anticipates an “initial draw” of $4 billion this month
GM ... in a more dire situation than previously thought. The company ... said it needs $4 billion immediately to stay afloat until the end of the year.
Chrysler sales off 47%
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2008 03:36:00 PM
Press Release: Chrysler LLC Reports November 2008 U.S. Sales
Chrysler LLC today reported total November 2008 U.S. sales of 85,260 units, down 10% versus October 2008 (94,530 units), and down 47% from the same month last year.This compares to Ford off 31%, Honda off 32%, Toyota off 34%, and GM off 41%.
GM Sales Off 41%
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2008 02:16:00 PM
From MarketWatch: GM U.S. November light vehicle sales drop 41.3%
Will Chrysler report any sales?
Ford sales off 31%, Toyota sales off 34%
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2008 12:56:00 PM
From MarketWatch: Ford, Toyota post steep sales declines
Ford Motor Co. on Tuesday reported a 30.6% drop in November U.S. vehicle sales, which served as a timely reminder of the brutal sales climate with automakers returning to Capitol Hill in hopes of gaining access to $25 billion in loans.GM and Chrysler report later today. Pretty grim numbers.
Toyota ... posted an even steeper decline, down 33.9%.
Credit Crisis Indicators
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2008 11:10:00 AM
Yesterday saw a stunning flight to treasuries across the board.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
The 10-year yield fell to a record low of 2.72%. The yield has fallen further this morning (currently at 2.70%)
The graph shows the 10 year yield since 1962.
The yield on 3 month treasuries is 0.05% (bad). This is essentially zero!
Here are a few other indicators of credit stress once again suggesting little progress over the last few days.
 | The TED spread is stuck above 2.0, and still too high. The peak was 4.63 on Oct 10th. I'd like to see the spread move back down to 1.0 or lower. A normal spread is around 0.5. |
This is the spread between high and low quality 30 day nonfinancial commercial paper. If the credit crisis eases, I'd expect a significant decline in this spread - and the graph makes it clear this indicator is still in crisis.
 |
For the LIBOR, the TED spread, and the two-year swap, there has been clear progress - but there is still a ways to go. For the A2P2 spread (and all treasury yields), the markets are still in crisis.
Mortgage Delinquency Rate to Rise Sharply in 2009
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2008 09:39:00 AM
From the WSJ: Delinquent Mortgages Set to Nearly Double in 2009
TransUnion LLC ... predicted that the proportion of consumers with mortgages that are 60 days or more past-due will hit 7.17% in the fourth quarter of 2009.We're all subprime now!
That would be the highest level reached since the Chicago credit bureau ... first started tracking these statistics in 1992. It compares with an expected delinquency rate of 4.67% at the end of 2008.
...
"There are a lot more loans that will be resetting throughout 2009 through 2011," says Ezra Becker, principal consultant in TransUnion's financial-services group, who notes that rising unemployment and depreciating home values are other contributing factors. "There may be an ongoing flow of consumers who may now be able to pay their mortgage but may not be able to a year from now."
Monday, December 01, 2008
A2/P2 Spread Blow Out
by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2008 11:48:00 PM
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
This graph shows the A2/P2 spread from the Fed's commercial paper report. The A2/P2 Spread hit 586 bp as of Friday.
When the A2/P2 spread spiked to 160 last year that was considered shocking; now that spike looks minor.
Maybe that was holiday related, but look at the 10 year Treasury yield: This shows the 10 year yield since 1962. The current yield is at 2.72%.
This is the lowest yield in the 46 year history of the 10 year treasury note.
This spike was probably because of comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the Fed might buy longer term treasuries.
[T]he Fed could purchase longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities. This approach might influence the yields on these securities, thus helping to spur aggregate demand.Neither of these graphs suggest anything positive for the credit markets or the economy.
