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Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Wednesday: New Home Sales, Architecture Billings Index

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2024 07:22:00 PM

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from and are for top tier scenarios.

• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 640 thousand SAAR, up from 619 thousand in May.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

July Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.1 million SAAR, Up 1% YoY

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2024 02:29:00 PM

From WardsAuto: July U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking to Strongest SAAR So Far in 2024 (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

An expected boost to volume in July from lost sales in June, caused by a cyberattack affecting dealer management systems, will not be as big as initially expected. Dealers apparently were quite adept at finding alternative ways to reporting sales and lost volume was less than thought. Still, July’s forecast SAAR of 16.1 million units is the highest for any month this year and inventory will enter August at a five-year high for the period.
emphasis added
Vehicle Sales ForecastClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for July (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 16.1 million SAAR, would be up 5.3% from last month, and up 1.0% from a year ago.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.89 million SAAR in June; Median House Prices Increased 4.1% Year-over-Year

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2024 10:53:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.89 million SAAR in June


Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Existing Home Sales Year-over-yearSales declined 5.4% year-over-year compared to June 2023. This was the thirty-fourth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.
There is much more in the article.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.89 million SAAR in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2024 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slipped 5.4% in June; Median Sales Price Jumps to Record High of $426,900

Existing-home sales fell in June as the median sales price climbed to the highest price ever recorded for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions posted sales declines. Year-over-year, sales waned in the Northeast, Midwest and South but were unchanged in the West.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 5.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million in June. Year-over-year, sales also dropped 5.4% (down from 4.11 million in June 2023).
Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1.32 million units, up 3.1% from May and 23.4% from one year ago (1.07 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.7 months in May and 3.1 months in June 2023. The last time unsold inventory posted a four-month supply was May 2020 (4.5 months).
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in June (3.89 million SAAR) were down 5.4% from the previous month and were 5.4% below the June 2023 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.32 million in June from 1.28 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was up 23.4% year-over-year (blue) in June compared to June 2023.

Months of supply (red) increased to 4.1 months in June from 3.7 months the previous month.

The sales rate was lower than the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

Monday, July 22, 2024

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.23% in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2024 04:38:00 PM

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.23% in June

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.23% as of June 30, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 115,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.2 million borrowers since March 2020.

The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance increased 1 basis point to 0.11% in June 2024. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased by 5 basis points to 0.44%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) stayed flat at 0.31%.

“The number of loans in forbearance increased in June for the first time since October of 2022,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Furthermore, the performance of both loan workouts and overall servicing portfolios weakened, particularly for government loans.”

Added Walsh, “There were several factors that impacted homeowners, including the uptick of severe weather events that hit multiple regions of the country as well as early signs of consumer distress that could potentially impact borrowers’ ability to pay their mortgages. Additionally, June’s month-end fell on a Sunday, and the weekend timing typically leads to higher mortgage defaults in any given month.”
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At the end of June, there were about 115,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2024 03:21:00 PM

From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: June Sees Calendar-Driven Spike in Delinquencies; Foreclosures Remain Historically Low

• Coming off a near-record low in May and with June ending on a Sunday, the national delinquency rate jumped +14.5% (+45 basis points) to 3.49%, its second highest level in 18 months

• Sunday month-ends often lead to sharp, but typically temporary, spikes in delinquent mortgages, as payments made on the last day of a given month are not processed until the following month

• As such, June saw a +19.6% increase in the number of borrowers a single payment past due – the highest inflow since May 2020 – while 60-day delinquencies rose 11.8% to a five-month high

• Though up 5.1% from May, serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) were still down 8.5% year over year and 10.1% below pre-pandemic levels

• Foreclosure starts declined 6.2% in June – pushing active foreclosure inventory to its lowest point since the end of COVID-era moratoriums, now 34% below pre-pandemic levels

• 5.3K foreclosure sales were completed nationally in June, representing a -14.9% month-over-month decrease to their lowest level since February 2022, still well below pre-pandemic norms

• Prepayments eased -7.6% from May, breaking a six-month streak of increasing prepay activity as we near the typical seasonal peak of home sales, and affordability and rate constraints persist
emphasis added
Mortgage Delinquency RateClick on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

NMHC: "Apartment Market Conditions Continue to Loosen"

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2024 11:20:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC: "Apartment Market Conditions Continue to Loosen"


From the NMHC: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Conditions Continue to Loosen, Though Deal Flow Increased for the Second Straight Quarter Amidst More Favorable Conditions for Debt Financing
Apartment market conditions came in mixed in the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC’s) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for July 2024. While the Debt Financing (63) and Sales Volume (57) indexes indicated more favorable conditions this quarter, Equity Financing (49) and Market Tightness (47) came in below the breakeven level (50).
Concessions have become commonplace in markets with elevated levels of deliveries, as survey respondents reported overall looser market conditions for the eighth consecutive quarter,” noted NMHC Economist and Senior Director of Research, Chris Bruen.
NMHC Apartment Indx
The Market Tightness Index came in at 47 this quarter – below the breakeven level of 50 – indicating looser market conditions for the eighth consecutive quarter. Half of respondents, though, thought market conditions were unchanged compared to three months ago while 27% thought markets have become looser, down from 37% in April. Twenty-two percent of respondents reported tighter markets than three months ago.
The quarterly index increased to 47 in July from 41 in April. Any reading below 50 indicates looser conditions from the previous quarter.

This index has been an excellent leading indicator for rents and vacancy rates, and this suggests higher vacancy rates and a further weakness in asking rents. This is the eighth consecutive quarter with looser conditions than the previous quarter.
There is much more in the article.

Housing July 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.6% Week-over-week, Up 39.1% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2024 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.6% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 35.3% from the February seasonal bottom.

Altos Home Inventory Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of July 19th, inventory was at 668 thousand (7-day average), compared to 651 thousand the prior week.   

Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. 

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory
The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up 75% from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 39.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 38.1%), and down 30.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 31.5%). 

Inventory is now above 2020 levels for the same week.

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Sunday, July 21, 2024

Sunday Night Futures

by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2024 06:41:00 PM

Schedule for Week of July 21, 2024

• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 12 and DOW futures are up 36 (fair value).

Oil prices were lower over the last week with WTI futures at $80.13 per barrel and Brent at $82.63 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are up about 5% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.46 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.56 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.10 year-over-year.

Existing Home Sales Report: Watch Months-of-Supply

by Calculated Risk on 7/21/2024 10:16:00 AM

For house prices, probably the key number in the existing home sales report on Tuesday will be months-of-supply.

It is likely month-of-supply will be close to 4 months in the June report, the highest level since the start of the pandemic. In June 2019, months-of-supply peaked for the year at 4.3 months.

As I mentioned in a recent interview with Lance Lambert at ResiClub:

"I expect this measure to continue to increase, and be over 4 months soon – and to be above 2019 levels in a few months. This doesn’t mean national price declines, but it suggests price growth will slow significantly later this year. We might see national price decline with months-of-supply above 5 (as opposed to 6) since most potential sellers have substantial equity and might be willing to sell for a little less."