by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 07:03:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	358🚩	346	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths were above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal for several weeks.

Weekly deaths were steadily decreasing following the winter pickup, however, weekly deaths increased this week.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 15th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This is moving towards the lows last May.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".

by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 12:35:00 PM

From BofA:

We initiated our 2Q GDP tracking after the April retail sales print. It moved up two-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.0% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking moved up a tenth to -0.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication [May 16th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales estimate by the same amount to +0.1%. Our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate stands at -0.5%. [May 16th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on May 16, down from 2.5 percent on May 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and the release of import and export price indexes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 0.4 percent to -3.0 percent. [May 1st estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 09:28:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April

A brief excerpt:

Total housing starts in April were at expectations and starts in February and March were revised up, combined.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were down 1.7% in April compared to April 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 7.1% YTD and multi-family up 13.4% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,361,000. This is 1.6 percent above the revised March estimate of 1,339,000, but is 1.7 percent below the April 2024 rate of 1,385,000. Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 927,000; this is 2.1 percent below the revised March figure of 947,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 420,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 1,481,000 and is 3.2 percent below the April 2024 rate of 1,459,000. Single family authorizations in April were at a rate of 922,000; this is 5.1 percent below the revised March figure of 972,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 431,000 in April.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased month-over-month in April.   Multi-family starts were up sharply year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) decreased in April and were down 12.0% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery.

Total housing starts in April were at expectations; and starts in February and March were revised up, combined.

I'll have more later …

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 08:26:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for April. The consensus is for 1.360 million SAAR, up from 1.324 million SAAR in March.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for May).

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 05:08:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 10 May

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 10 May. ...

4-10 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 64.6% (-2.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.57 (-0.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.08 (-3.0%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 02:01:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April

A brief excerpt:

This data suggests sales will be down year-over-year for the 3rd consecutive month in April, and that sales-to-date in 2025 are trailing sales in 2024 - and 2024 was the lowest sales year since 1995! Also, it seems sales in April might have a 3 handle (be under 4 million).
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase into the Summer.

Months in red are areas that are seeing 5 months of supply now and might see price pressures later this summer.
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 34, down from 40 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence

Builder confidence fell sharply in May on growing uncertainties stemming from elevated interest rates, tariff concerns, building material cost uncertainty and the cloudy economic outlook. However, 90% of the responses received in May were tabulated prior to the May 12 announcement that the United States and China agreed to slash tariffs for 90 days to allow trade talks to continue.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 34 in May, down six points from April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This ties the November 2023 reading, and is the lowest since the index hit 31 in December 2022.

“The spring home buying season has gotten off to a slow start as persistent elevated interest rates, policy uncertainty and building material cost factors hurt builder sentiment in May,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “However, the overwhelming majority of survey responses came before the tariff reduction announcement with China. Builders expect future trade negotiations and progress on tax policy will help stabilize the economic outlook and strengthen housing demand.”

“Policy uncertainty stemming in large part from the stop-and-start tariff issues has hurt builder confidence but the initial trade arrangements with the United Kingdom and China are a welcome development,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Still, the overall actions on tariffs in recent weeks have had a negative impact on builders, as 78% reported difficulties pricing their homes recently due to uncertainty around material prices.”

The latest HMI survey also revealed that 34% of builders cut home prices in May, up from 29% in April and the highest level since December 2023 (36%). Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in May, unchanged from the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 61% in May, the same rate as the previous month.
...
All three of the major HMI indices posted losses in May. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell eight points in May to a level of 37, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months edged one-point lower to 42 while the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped two points to 23.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell three points to 44, the Midwest moved one point lower to 40, the South dropped two points to 37 and the West posted a two-point decline to 33.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was well below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) was little changed in April as declines in manufacturing and mining output were offset by growth in utilities output. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.4 percent after increasing 0.4 percent in March. In April, manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.3 percent. The index for mining fell 0.3 percent, and the index for utilities rose 3.3 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in April was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization edged down to 77.7 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 77.7% is 1.9% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production was unchanged at 103.9. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was slightly below consensus expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2025 08:58:00 AM

From Fed Chair Powell: Opening Remarks. Excerpts:

The economic environment has changed significantly since 2020, and our review will reflect our assessment of those changes. Longer-term interest rates are a good deal higher now, driven largely by real rates given the stability of longer-term inflation expectations. Many estimates of the longer-run level of the policy rate have risen, including those in the Summary of Economic Projections.

Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s. We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks—a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks.

All rates will likely be higher this decade (barring an economic downturn) than in the 2010s.