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Friday, August 12, 2022

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 28% Year-over-year; Inventory growth is slowing

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2022 11:29:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 28% Year-over-year

Excerpt:

As I noted earlier, Inventory will Tell the Tale about the housing market. And housing inventory is increasing, but the pace of growth has slowed in recent weeks.

As the housing market slows, we need to watch inventory very closely. This will give us a hint on what will happen with house prices.
...
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending August 6, 2022.. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.
Active inventory continued to grow, but the pace slipped to 28% above one year ago.  The rate of improvement actually slipped this week as the number of new listings continues to come in lower. The big positive for today’s shoppers is that they have more homes to consider than last year’s shoppers did. Nevertheless, our July Housing Trends Report showed that the active listings count still trails its 2020 and 2019 levels by more than 15% and 45%, respectively. More improvement in active inventory is likely needed to bring balance, but the recent trend may be at-risk if homeowner attitudes toward selling now continue to deteriorate.
...Realtor InventoryHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Early Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2022 10:09:00 AM

From BofA:

Looking ahead to next week, we will initiate our US GDP tracking for Q3 following the release of July retail sales. ... If our forecast for July retail sales prove accurate, it would suggest that household spending is off to a fast start in Q3 and pose upside risk to our forecast for another modest decline in real GDP in the quarter. [-0.5 percent Q3, perliminary estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.9% (qoq ar). [August 10 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.5 percent on August 10, up from 1.4 percent on August 4. [August 10 estimate]

Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2022 08:57:00 AM

With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.

I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic.

This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through July 2022, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).

Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.

South Lake Tahoe Click on graph for larger image.

Following the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak.

Currently inventory is still very low, but up almost 6-fold from the record low set in February 2022, and up 44% year-over-year.  Prices are up 9.9% YoY (but the YoY change has been trending down).

Thursday, August 11, 2022

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 5.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2022 03:59:00 PM

Following seasonal patterns, U.S. hotel performance fell slightly from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Aug. 6.

July 31 through Aug. 6, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

Occupancy: 69.9% (-5.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $154.48 (+15.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $108.04 (+8.5%)

*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is just below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will peak in seasonally in a few weeks.

Current State of the Housing Market

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2022 12:33:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Current State of the Housing Market

A brief excerpt:

This is a market overview for mid-August.
...
The early local market reports for July show inventory up over 46% YoY for these markets! These same markets were up 20% YoY in May, so the NAR report for July will show further increases in inventory.

It is important to realize inventory is both increasing and still very low. Here is a graph from Realtor.com’s July Housing Trends Report. This shows their estimate of active inventory over the last six years. Currently inventory is rising, but still far below normal.

Price ReductionsSince inventory was declining rapidly for most of 2020, and it is very likely that inventory will be up in August or September compared to 2020.
...
We are seeing a sharp slowdown in the housing market, with more price reductions, more inventory, and fewer sales. It will take some time to see the impact on house price growth, but that is coming too. However, inventory growth has slowed recently, and inventory is key for predicting house prices.

Next week, existing home sales will likely show a sharp year-over-year decline in sales for July - with sales below 5 million SAAR for the first time since the first few months of the pandemic. Housing starts will probably show further declines (and still a record number of homes under construction).

It is important to remember that housing is a key transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy. As long as inflation remains elevated, the Fed will keep raising rates - and that will impact the housing market (although mortgage rates have already jumped in anticipation of the FOMC actions).
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2022"

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2022 10:45:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2022

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.64 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. The delinquency rate was down 47 basis points from the first quarter of 2022 and down 183 basis points from one year ago.

“At 3.64 percent, the mortgage delinquency rate in the second quarter fell to its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979 – even beating out the previous pre-pandemic, survey low of 3.77 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019,” said Marina Walsh, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Most of the improvement across all product types – FHA, VA, and conventional loans - resulted from a decline in the loans that were 90 days or more delinquent but not in the foreclosure process.”

According to Walsh, of all the economic indicators that can lead to mortgage delinquencies, the U.S. unemployment rate seems to be the best gauge of loan performance. Despite inflationary pressures, stock market volatility, increases in mortgage rates, and two quarters of economic contraction – often defined as a recession – the job market remains incredibly strong. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in July – a half-century low that tracks closely with the record-low mortgage delinquency rate.

Added Walsh, “Foreclosure inventory levels and foreclosure starts remain well below historical averages for the survey – a strong indication that servicers are able to help delinquent borrowers find alternatives to foreclosure. Such alternatives include curing, loan workouts, home sales - with possible equity to spare, or cash-for-keys and deed-in-lieu options.”
emphasis added
MBA Delinquency by PeriodClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  Overall delinquencies decreased in Q2 to a record low.

From the MBA:
Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding to 3.64 percent, the lowest level in the history of the survey dating back to 1979. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate increased 7 basis points to 1.66 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate decreased 7 basis points to 0.49 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 47 basis points to 1.49 percent.
...
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 0.59 percent, up 6 basis points from the first quarter of 2022 and 8 basis points higher than one year ago. The foreclosure inventory rate remains below the quarterly average of 1.43 percent dating back to 1979.
This sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased in Q1 with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 262,000

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2022 08:36:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 262,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 12,000 from 260,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 252,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 7,250 from 254,750 to 247,500.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 252,000.

The previous week was revised down.

Weekly claims were at the consensus forecast.

Wednesday, August 10, 2022

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI

by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2022 08:27:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 263 thousand up from 260 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.4% increase in core PPI.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):


Hospitalizations have almost quadrupled from the lows in April 2022.

COVID Metrics
 NowWeek
Ago
Goal
New Cases per Day2107,077121,260≤5,0001
Hospitalized236,66337,632≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2395422≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts,
27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Deaths per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

Homebuyers Hit Brakes in July, Sellers Hold Back

by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2022 01:15:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Homebuyers Hit Brakes in July, Sellers Hold Back

A brief excerpt:

The big story for July existing home sales is the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story is that new listings are down YoY in July. Of course, active listings are up sharply.
...
Notes for all tables:

1. New additions to table in BOLD.

2. Northwest (Seattle), Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®

3. Totals do not include Atlanta, Denver (included in state totals)

Conforming Loan LimitAnd here is a table for new listings in July. For these areas, new listings were down 8.6% YoY.

Last month, new listings in these markets were up 3.9% YoY. Overall, we aren’t seeing a pickup in new listings in these markets. In most markets, new listings are down YoY.
...
Much more to come!
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2022 11:13:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in July. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here"Motor Fuel" decreased at a 61% annualized rate in July!


Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up between 3% annualized in the Northeast and almost 11% in the South with an average of close to 7.5%. The year-over-year increase was smaller in July than in June.  

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 6.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 7.0%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 5.9%. Core PCE is for June and increased 4.8% year-over-year.