by Calculated Risk on 2/17/2025 06:23:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6.

• At 10:00 AM, The February NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 47, unchanged from 47 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 7 and DOW futures are down 75 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $71.39 per barrel and Brent at $75.29 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $80, and Brent was at $85 - so WTI oil prices are down about 11% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.26 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.14 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 2/17/2025 02:08:00 PM

I usually celebrate President Washington's birthday by reading his Farewell Address. A brief excerpt:

To the efficacy and permanency of your Union, a Government for the whole is indispensable. No alliances, however strict, between the parts can be an adequate substitute; they must inevitably experience the infractions and interruptions, which all alliances in all times have experienced. Sensible of this momentous truth, you have improved upon your first essay, by the adoption of a Constitution of Government better calculated than your former for an intimate Union, and for the efficacious management of your common concerns. This Government, the offspring of our own choice, uninfluenced and unawed, adopted upon full investigation and mature deliberation, completely free in its principles, in the distribution of its powers, uniting security with energy, and containing within itself a provision for its own amendment, has a just claim to your confidence and your support. Respect for its authority, compliance with its laws, acquiescence in its measures, are duties enjoined by the fundamental maxims of true Liberty. The basis of our political systems is the right of the people to make and to alter their Constitutions of Government. But the Constitution which at any time exists, till changed by an explicit and authentic act of the whole people, is sacredly obligatory upon all. The very idea of the power and the right of the people to establish Government presupposes the duty of every individual to obey the established Government.

All obstructions to the execution of the Laws, all combinations and associations, under whatever plausible character, with the real design to direct, control, counteract, or awe the regular deliberation and action of the constituted authorities, are destructive of this fundamental principle, and of fatal tendency. They serve to organize faction, to give it an artificial and extraordinary force; to put, in the place of the delegated will of the nation, the will of a party, often a small but artful and enterprising minority of the community; and, according to the alternate triumphs of different parties, to make the public administration the mirror of the ill-concerted and incongruous projects of faction, rather than the organ of consistent and wholesome plans digested by common counsels, and modified by mutual interests.

However combinations or associations of the above description may now and then answer popular ends, they are likely, in the course of time and things, to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people, and to usurp for themselves the reins of government; destroying afterwards the very engines, which have lifted them to unjust dominion.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 2/17/2025 10:47:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in January, down 3.5% from December’s preliminary pace and up 2.3% from last January’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Note that this month’s existing home sales release will incorporate new seasonal factors, which will probably “smooth” monthly sales a little for last year – with slightly slower SA sales for the February-May period and slightly higher SA sales for the June-October period. I am assuming this January’s seasonal factor won’t be materially different from last January’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in December. Last year, the NAR reported sales in January 2024 at 4.00 million SAAR.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/17/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week.

Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.2% from the bottom five weeks ago in January.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 29.2% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 27.8%), and down 22.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.1%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Feb 14th, inventory was at 638 thousand (7-day average), compared to 632 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2025 06:31:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. ...

2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 55.9% (-0.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.03 (-2.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$87.22 (-2.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is a little lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next couple of months.

by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2025 09:09:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 27.5% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Feb. 8, 2025

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 27.5% above year-ago levels

For the 66th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. This week also marked the fifth straight week where the growth rate has increased, fueled by the entrance of many new listings on the market.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–increased 11.3%

Fresh inventory increased year over year for the fifth week in a row, as sellers trickled back into the market. We project home sales to increase in 2025 compared with 2024, which notched the lowest existing-home sales since 1996.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 66th consecutive week.  

New listings have jumped recently but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

• Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

For manufacturing, the February New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, February 17th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Washington's Birthday.

----- Tuesday, February 18th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6.

10:00 AM: The February NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 47, unchanged from 47 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Wednesday, February 19th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for January.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.394 million SAAR, down from 1.499 million SAAR.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of Meeting of January 28-29, 2025

----- Thursday, February 20th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Philly Fed manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 25.4, down from 44.3.

----- Friday, February 21st -----
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for February).

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 07:01:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	922	983	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and at a minimum, I'll continue to post through the Winter.  

Weekly deaths had been increasing, and weekly deaths are almost triple the low of 314 in early June 2024.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of February 13th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has been moving sideways recently.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "High" according to the CDC.   

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 01:52:00 PM

From BofA:

Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales forecast by 0.1pp to +2.2%. We lowered our Q4 past quarter tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1% [Feb 14th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on February 14, down from 2.9 percent on February 7. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth fell from 2.8 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 4.9 percent. [Feb 14th estimate]