by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2025 01:55:00 PM
Monday, May 19, 2025
LA Ports: April Inbound Traffic Up YoY, Outbound Down
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).
To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.
On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 0.7% in April compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. Outbound traffic decreased 0.3% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.
"How do you grade the Spring housing market?"
by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2025 10:51:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: "How do you grade the Spring housing market?"
A brief excerpt:
Last week, Housing Wire Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler asked Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami the above question: "How do you grade the Spring housing market?"There is much more in the article.
My friend Logan replied: “Generally, just for how I look at housing, this kind of gets an A ...”
I almost fell out of my chair!
Housing May 19th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.5% Week-over-week, Up 32.7% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2025 08:11:00 AM
Sunday, May 18, 2025
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2025 06:16:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of May 18, 2025
Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 43 and DOW futures are down 267 (fair value).
Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $62.49 per barrel and Brent at $65.41 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $82, and Brent was at $82 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.14 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.57 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.43 year-over-year.
Realtor.com Reports Most Actively "For Sale" Inventory since 2019
by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2025 08:12:00 AM
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels.
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 10, 2025
• Active inventory climbed 30.6% year over year
The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 30.6% higher than this time last year. This represents the 79th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, the highest inventory level since December 2019.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 11.2% year over year
New listings rose again last week, up 11.2% compared with the same period last year. The momentum that began earlier this spring remains strong, signaling a vibrant market as we head into late spring and early summer.
• The median list price remained flat
After three consecutive weeks of gains, the national median list price remained flat year over year last week. Ongoing affordability challenges, along with growing concerns about personal finances and job security, continue to pose significant hurdles for many buyers. Nearly 4 in 5 home shoppers believe it’s a bad time to buy, which is dampening demand.
Inventory was up year-over-year for the 79th consecutive week.
Saturday, May 17, 2025
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April
by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2025 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2025
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April
• Q1 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Increase
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Schedule for Week of May 18, 2025
by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key reports this week are April New and Existing Home Sales.
No major economic releases scheduled.
No major economic releases scheduled.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2025
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 232 thousand, up from 229 thousand last week.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data.
The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.
Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.98 million SAAR.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
The consensus is for 700 thousand SAAR, down from 724 thousand SAAR in March.
Friday, May 16, 2025
May 16th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths Increased Slightly
by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 07:03:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
COVID Metrics | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
Deaths per Week | 358🚩 | 346 | ≤3501 | |
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. |
This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.
Q2 GDP Tracking: Low-to-Mid 2%
by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 12:35:00 PM
From BofA:
We initiated our 2Q GDP tracking after the April retail sales print. It moved up two-tenth to 2.2% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.0% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking moved up a tenth to -0.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication [May 16th estimate]From Goldman:
emphasis added
We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales estimate by the same amount to +0.1%. Our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate stands at -0.5%. [May 16th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on May 16, down from 2.5 percent on May 15. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau and the release of import and export price indexes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 0.4 percent to -3.0 percent. [May 1st estimate]
Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April
by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2025 09:28:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April
A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in April were at expectations and starts in February and March were revised up, combined.There is much more in the article.
The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).
Total starts were down 1.7% in April compared to April 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 7.1% YTD and multi-family up 13.4% YTD.