by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2009 08:20:00 PM

I was going to post something on this CDS trade, but Professor Hamilton did a much better job than I could: How to lose on a sure-fire bet

Read Hamilton's take ...

Here are the details of the trade from the WSJ: A Daring Trade Has Wall Street Seething

The trade involved credit-default swaps and securities backed by subprime mortgages. The original securities ... were backed by $335 million of subprime mortgages mostly on homes in California made at the housing bubble's peak in 2005 ...

Following a wave of refinancing and defaults, only $29 million of the loans were left outstanding by March 2009, half of which were delinquent or in default...

Believing the securities would become worthless, traders at J.P. Morgan bought credit-default swaps over the past year from Amherst ... Other banks including RBS Securities ... and BofA also bought swaps on the securities from different trading partners.

The banks ... paid as much as 80 to 90 cents for every dollar of insurance, the going rate last fall according to dealer quotes, expecting to receive a dollar back when the securities became worthless ...

At one point, at least $130 million of bets had been made on the performance of around $27 million in securities ...

In late April, traders at some banks were shocked to find out from monthly remittance reports that the bonds they had bet against had been paid off in full. Normally an investor can't pay off loans like that but if the amount of outstanding loans falls to less than 10% of the original pool, the servicer ... can buy them and make bondholders whole.

That's what happened in this case. In April, a servicer called Aurora Loan Services at the behest of Amherst purchased the remaining loans and paid off the bonds.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2009 05:11:00 PM

One of the headlines from the Fed's Flow of Funds report this morning was that household percent equity had fallen to a record low 41.4%.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

This is a simple calculation: divide home mortgages ($10,464 billion) by household real estate assets ($17,870 billion) gives us the percent mortgage debt (58.6%). Subtract from one gives us the percent homeowner equity (41.4%).

But what does this tell us?

What we really want to know is the percent equity for homeowners with mortgages. According to the Census Bureau, 31.6% of all U.S. owner occupied homes had no mortgage in 2007 (most recent data). These homeowners tend to be older, or more risk adverse, and few of them will probably borrow from their home equity.

You can't do a direct subtraction because the value of these paid-off homes is, on average, lower than the mortgaged 68.4%. But we can construct a model based on data from the 2007 American Community Survey.

Note: See data at bottom of this post.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the distribution of U.S. households by the value of their home, with and without a mortgage. This data is for 2007.

By using the mid-points of each range, and solving for the price of the highest range to match the then Fed's estimate of household real estate assets at the end of 2007: $20.5 Trillion, we can estimate the total dollar value of houses with and without mortgages.

Using this method, the total value of U.S. houses, at the end of 2007, with mortgages was $15.1 Trillion or 73.6% of the total. The value of houses without mortgages was $5.4 Trillion or 26.4% of the total U.S. household real estate.

Assuming 73.6% of current total assets is for households with mortgages (so $13.2 trillion of $17.87 trillion total), and since all of the mortgage debt ($10.464 trillion) is from the households with mortgages, these homes have an average of 20.4% equity. It's important to remember this includes some homes with 90% equity, and millions of homes with zero or negative equity.

Data from 2007 American Community Survey:

	United States
	Estimate	Margin of Error
Total:	75,515,104	+/-227,236
With a mortgage:	51,615,003	+/-152,731
Less than $50,000	2,037,849	+/-21,748
$50,000 to $99,999	6,443,236	+/-45,023
$100,000 to $149,999	8,023,775	+/-48,465
$150,000 to $199,999	7,318,809	+/-43,489
$200,000 to $299,999	9,538,216	+/-46,625
$300,000 to $499,999	10,196,919	+/-44,000
$500,000 or more	8,056,199	+/-35,865
Not mortgaged:	23,900,101	+/-91,776
Less than $50,000	3,577,700	+/-30,890
$50,000 to $99,999	4,665,031	+/-35,455
$100,000 to $149,999	3,765,972	+/-28,355
$150,000 to $199,999	2,968,680	+/-24,691
$200,000 to $299,999	3,227,661	+/-23,430
$300,000 to $499,999	3,080,889	+/-21,963
$500,000 or more	2,614,168	+/-17,619

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2009 03:40:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR reports US performance for week ending 6 June 2009

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 13.9 percent to end the week at 56.6 percent. Average daily rate dropped 10.5 percent to finish the week at US$95.90. Revenue per available room [RevPAR] for the week decreased 22.9 percent to finish at US$54.24.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the YoY change in the occupancy rate (3 week trailing average).

The three week average is off 11.8% from the same period in 2008.

The average daily rate is down 10.5%, so RevPAR is off 22.9% from the same week last year.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2009 03:01:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Bondholders Face Losses From Commercial Mortgages(th Ron)

Investors in bonds that packaged $62 billion of debt for U.S. offices, hotels and shopping malls are bracing for more loan defaults through 2010 as Bank of America Merrill Lynch says landlords’ monthly payments may jump 20 percent or more.

Principal is coming due on the so-called partial interest only loans ... About $179 billion of such loans were written between 2005 and 2007 and bundled into bonds ... About 87 percent of mortgages sold as securities in 2007 allowed owners to put off paying principal for several years or until maturity, compared with 48 percent in 2004

Hey, Option ARMs for commercial real estate ... hoocoodanode prices would fall?

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2009 12:00:00 PM

The Fed released the Q1 2009 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.

According the Fed, household net worth is now off $14 Trillion from the peak in 2007.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This is the Households and Nonprofit Net Worth as a percent of GDP.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

This ratio was relatively stable for almost 50 years, and then ... bubbles!

Household percent equity was at an all time low of 41.4%.



For blocked image users: Household Percent Equity

This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

When prices were increasing dramatically, the percent homeowner equity was declining because homeowners were extracting equity from their homes. Now, with prices falling, the percent homeowner equity is Cliff Diving!

Note: approximately 31% of households do not have a mortgage. So the 50+ million households with mortgages have far less than 41.4% equity.

For blocked image users: Household Real Estate Assets Percent GDP

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Household assets as a percent of GDP is now declining rapidly. Mortgage debt declined, but increased slightly as a percent of GDP in Q1.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2009 10:00:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Option ARMs Threaten U.S. Housing Rebound as 2011 Resets Peak

Shirley Breitmaier took out a $315,000 option ARM to refinance a previous loan on her house.

Her payments started at 3/8 of 1 percent, or less than $100 a month ... The 73-year-old widow may see it jump to $3,500 a month in two years ... She’ll be required to start paying principal and interest to amortize the debt when the loan reaches 145 percent of the original amount borrowed.

[CR Note: the 145% recast level is much higher than normal. This is now a GMAC loan]
...
About 1 million option ARMs are estimated to reset higher in the next four years, according to real estate data firm First American CoreLogic of Santa Ana, California. About three quarters of those loans will adjust next year and in 2011, with the peak coming in August 2011 when about 54,000 loans recast, the data show.

[CR Note: recast, not reset. This article uses the two terms interchangeably]
...
“The option ARM recasts will drive up the foreclosure supply, undermining the recovery in the housing market,” [Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School in Philadelphia] said in an interview. “The option ARMs will be part of the reason that the path to recovery will be long and slow.”

And compare these two comments:

“This loan is a perfect example front to back, bottom to top, of everything that has gone wrong over the last five to seven years,” [Cameron Pannabecker, the owner of Cal-Pro Mortgage] said. “The consumer had a product pushed on them that they had no hope of understanding.”
...
“The problem is, real estate values went down,” [Peter Paul of Paul Financial, the loan orginator] said.

I agree with Pannabecker.

And here is a repeat of the most recent reset / recast chart from Credit Suisse.


Credit Suisse is using recast dates for Option ARMs and reset dates for all other loans.

As Tanta noted: "Reset" refers to a rate change. "Recast" refers to a payment change.

Resets are not a huge problem as long as interest rates stay low, but recasts could be significant. There are some questions about how the Wells Fargo pick-a-pay portfolio fits into this chart, since Wells Fargo doesn't expect significant recasts until 2012 (see A Bank Is Survived by Its Loans )

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2009 08:31:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from April to May (seasonally adjusted), and sales are off 10.8% from May 2008 (retail and food services decreased 9.6%). Much of the increase was due to higher gas prices.

The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail sales since 1993.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

To calculate the real change, the monthly PCE price index from the BEA was used (May PCE prices were estimated as the average increase over the previous 3 months).

The Census Bureau reported that nominal retail sales decreased 10.8% year-over-year (retail and food services decreased 10.1%), and real retail sales also declined by 10.8% on a YoY basis.



The second graph shows real retail sales (adjusted with PCE) since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted.

NOTE: The graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

This shows that retail sales fell off a cliff in late 2008, and may have bottomed at a much lower level.

Here is the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $340.0 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 9.6 percent (±0.7%) below May 2008. Total sales for the March through May 2009 period were down 9.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The March to April 2009 percent change was revised from -0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to -0.2 percent (±0.2%)*.

Retail trade sales were up 0.5 percent (±0.7%)* from April 2009, but 10.8 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 33.8 percent (±1.5%) from May 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 19.6 percent (±2.3%) from last year.

Maybe the cliff diving is over, but no green shoots ....

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2009 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending June 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 601,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 625,000. The 4-week moving average was 621,750, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week's revised average of 632,250.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 30 was 6,816,000, an increase of 59,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,757,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows weekly claims and continued claims since 1971.

Continued claims increased to 6.82 million. This is 5.1% of covered employment.

Note: continued claims peaked at 5.4% of covered employment in 1982 and 7.0% in 1975. So this isn't a record as a percent of covered employment.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 10,500, and is now 37,000 below the peak of 8 weeks ago. There is a reasonable chance that claims have peaked for this cycle, but continued claims are still increasing - so it is still too early to call.

The level of initial claims (over 601 thousand) is still high, indicating significant weakness in the job market.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2009 02:49:00 AM

Note: Foreclosure "activity" is defined as Notice of Default (NODs), scheduled auctions and bank repossessions. A large number of NODs are cured, so this isn't the number of properties that the banks' repossess.

From RealtyTrac: U.S. Foreclosure Activity Decreases 6 Percent in May U.S.

RealtyTrac® ... today released its May 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 321,480 U.S. properties during the month, a decrease of 6 percent from the previous month but an increase of nearly 18 percent from May 2008. The report also shows that one in every 398 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in May.

“May foreclosure activity was the third highest month on record, and marked the third straight month where the total number of properties with foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000 — a first in the history of our report,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While defaults and scheduled foreclosure auctions were both down from the previous month, bank repossessions, or REOs, were up 2 percent thanks largely to substantial increases in several states, including Michigan, Arizona, Washington, Nevada, Oregon and New York. We expect REO activity to spike in the coming months as foreclosure delays and moratoria implemented by various state laws come to an end.”
emphasis added

The NODs are already spiking (most of the moratoriums have ended), but it takes awhile for this to lead to repossessions and REOs.

From Bloomberg: U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 as Bank Seizures Loom

U.S. foreclosure filings surpassed 300,000 for the third straight month in May and may hit a record 1.8 million by the first half of the year, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
...
Additional U.S. home foreclosures will probably total 6.4 million by mid-2011, and inventories of foreclosed homes awaiting sale will probably peak in mid-2010 at about 2 million properties, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by John Sim wrote in a June 5 report.
...
The May total was the third-highest in RealtyTrac records dating to January 2005.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 10:46:00 PM

Note: the graphic format has been changed. The in post graphics will be larger, and not use blogspot (blogspot graphics were blocked by many companies and government agencies).

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Daily Summary:

Long rates are rising.

From CNBC: Treasury Holds 'Awful' Auction: 10-Year Yield Hits 3.95%

From the WSJ: Rate Rise Clouds Recovery

On Wednesday, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed to 5.79%, up from 5% two weeks ago, according to HSH Associates. That jump will cut roughly in half the number of borrowers with an incentive to refinance, according to FTN Financial.

From the MBA: Mortgage Rates Increase, Refinance Applications Decline

Here is a cool tool from Political Calculations: Predicting Mortgage Rates and Treasury Yields

Trade Deficit Increases Slightly in April

From the Fed: Beige Book: Economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further

Economic Calender for Thursday

Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET

Weekly Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories 10 AM ET

Fed: Flow of Funds Report 12 PM ET

Hotel Occupancy Report (morning)

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart 1:05 PM ET

Futures are up slightly: barchart.com

Bloomberg Futures.

And the Asian markets are mixed.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 08:50:00 PM

In early March it seemed like the "D" word was everywhere. That raised a question: What is a depression?

This is an update to that earlier post. Although there is no formal definition, most economists agree a depression is a prolonged slump with a 10% or more decline in real GDP.

In March I heard an analyst say that a 10% unemployment rate is a depression. But the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in 1982, and that period is not considered a depression.

Some people argue the duration of the economic slump defines a depression - and the current recession is already 18 months old (through May). That is longer than the recessions of '90/'91 and '01. The '73-'75 recession lasted 16 months peak to trough, and the early '80s recession (a double dip) was classified as a 6 month recession followed by a 16 month recession (22 months total). Those earlier periods weren't "depressions", so if duration is the key measure, the current recession probably still has a ways to go.

Here is a graph comparing the decline in real GDP for the current recession with other recessions since 1947. Depression is marked on the graph as -10%.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.
Q2 2009 is estimated at a -4.0% decline in real GDP (seasonally adjusted annual rate). This will push the cumulative decline (peak to trough) to about 4.2% from the peak of real GDP.

Note: Northern Trust is forecasting -3.6% real GDP (SAAR) in Q2, and Goldman Sachs is forecasting -3.0%. For the stress tests, the baseline scenario assumed -1.2% in Q2, and the "more adverse" scenarios assumed -4.3%.

Even though the current recession is already one of the worst since 1947, it is only about 42% of the way to a depression (assuming a weak Q2).

To reach a depression - assuming -4.0% in Q2 - the economy would have to decline at about a 5.8% annual rate each quarter for the next year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 05:43:00 PM

California State Controller John Chiang wrote to Governor Schwarzenegger today. The following graph shows California's Cash Outlook starting in July 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

And here is the letter to Governor Schwarzenegger (note that May was worse than projections just a few weeks ago):

On May 29, 2009, I informed you of the precarious nature of the State’s cash condition and alerted you to impending risks which threaten the State’s ability to meet its payment obligations.

The situation has not improved. Based on actual revenues received during the month of May, and finalized May Revision data provided by the Department of Finance on June 1, I have the following updates to the State’s 2009-10 cash outlook:

• In the absence of legislative action, the State will not have sufficient cash to meet all of its payment obligations on July 28. By July 31, the cash deficit will increase to a negative $2.78 billion.

• In April, the State’s cash balance will fall to a negative $25.3 billion – the lowest point projected for Fiscal Year 2009-10. To put this shortfall into proper perspective, it is five times the $5.1 billion cash deficit we faced this past spring.

In the letter I sent you on May 29, I indicated we would have a negative cash balance of $1.02 billion at the end of July, and a low point for 2009-10 of $22 billion. The additional deterioration is a result of two factors: (a) May revenues coming in $827 million less than projected by the Governor’s May Revision, and (b) adjustments made by the Department of Finance to its revenue and expenditure projections. Attached is a chart detailing the projected cash low point for each month for the fiscal year starting July 1.

While the severity of the shortfall has worsened since my last letter, the time available to correct our budget and cash deficits has not materially changed. The State will run out of cash in less than 50 days without corrective action by the Legislature and Governor. ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 04:02:00 PM

From the NY Post: AIG BLDG. FETCHES UNDER $140M (ht bill)

LOCAL owner/developer Youngwoo & Associates has teamed up with South Korea's Kumho Investment Bank to win the bidding for AIG's downtown headquarters complex that consists of the Art Deco 70 Pine St. and the more modern 72 Wall St.

Sources said the pricing for the buildings, which have a combined 1.4 million square feet of space, will be just under $100 a foot, bringing the total to less than $140 million.

Put that in your CMBS rating formulas ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 02:00:00 PM

From the Fed: Beige Book

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve District Banks indicate that economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further during the period from mid-April through May. However, five of the Districts noted that the downward trend is showing signs of moderating. Further, contacts from several Districts said that their expectations have improved, though they do not see a substantial increase in economic activity through the end of the year.

On Real Estate and construction:

Although the residential real estate market remains weak, agents in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts reported an uptick in home sales. The reasons cited include seasonal factors, low interest rates, declining house prices, and tax credits for first-time buyers. Much of the sales increase was found in the lower-priced end of the market. New home construction appeared to have stabilized at very low levels in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco, although Kansas City reported an uptick in construction. Home inventories were trending down in Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas. However, Chicago reported that inventories remain elevated.

Commercial real estate markets continued to weaken across all Districts. Vacancy rates for commercial properties were rising in many regions of the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts putting downward pressure on rents. Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis reported new construction projects being postponed or cancelled, and new construction in the New York, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis Districts dropped substantially. Eight Districts cited difficulty in obtaining financing as one of the primary reasons for delaying or stopping construction of new developments and for limiting sales of existing properties.
emphasis added

Commercial real estate (CRE) is following residential off the cliff (this is the typical pattern - CRE follows residential). CRE will be crushed this year and into 2010.

Beige Shoots (ht kilroy was here)

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 01:08:00 PM

Here is a new tool from Political Calculations: Predicting Mortgage Rates and Treasury Yields

This is based off the chart I posted last Friday and is very timely with the Ten Year Yield pushing 4%.

Using their tool, with the Ten Year yield at 3.99%, this suggests that 30 year mortgage rates will rise to 5.8% based on the historical relationship between the Ten Year yield and mortgage rates.

According to the MBA the "average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.57 percent" last week. So rates will probably be higher this week.

BTW, I first used the term "Bernanke's conundrum" in 2005 to describe what I thought would happen when the Fed rate was low following the housing bust - and the long rate started to rise.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 11:27:00 AM

From Lingling Wei and Kris Hudson: Relief for Commercial Real-Estate Debt? It Seems Possible

... developers and investors complain that only those who are delinquent can talk to servicers of ... CMBS. But now the Treasury is considering issuing guidance that would allow servicers to start talking about ways to avoid defaults and foreclosures sooner, possibly at least two years ahead of the maturity date of a loan ... The Treasury guidance, which could be released within weeks, would essentially enable loan-modification talks to take place without triggering tax consequences ... when CMBS offerings are created, the underlying mortgages are legally held by tax-free trusts. The trusts can be forced to pay taxes if the underlying loans are modified before they become delinquent, according to current CMBS rules.
...
Of particular concern is $154.5 billion of CMBS loans coming due between now and 2012. About two-thirds of that likely won't qualify for refinancing, according to a recent report by Deutsche Bank. The bank projected that the default rates on the $700 billion of outstanding CMBS eventually could hit at least 30%, and loss rates, which take into account the amounts recovered by lenders, could reach as much as 13%, more than the peak seen during the commercial-real-estate collapse of the early 1990s.

This is a follow up to:

S&P on CMBS: Potential Downgrades from AAA to A

CRE Mortgage Servicers Seek up to 5 Year Extensions (with Fitch comments)

From Bloomberg: U.S. Commercial Mortgage Defaults May Rise to 17-Year High

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 08:43:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports:

The ... total April exports of $121.1 billion and imports of $150.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $29.2 billion, up from $28.5 billion in March, revised. April exports were $2.8 billon less than March exports of $123.9 billion. April imports were $2.2 billion less than March imports of $152.5 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through April 2009.

Both imports and exports declined again in April. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 21% and imports are off 31%!

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through April.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Import oil prices increased slightly to $46.60 in April - the second monthly increase in a row - and following eight consecutive monthly declines. Spot prices have increased sharply since April, so the decline in the trade deficit due to lower oil prices is over for now.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 08:37:00 AM

The MBA reports:

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 611.0, a decrease of 7.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 658.7 one week earlier.
...
The Refinance Index decreased 11.8 percent to 2605.7 from 2953.6 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1.1 percent to 270.7 from 267.7 one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.57 percent from 5.25 percent ...
emphasis added

The Purchase Index is now at the level of the late '90s.

30-year fixed mortgage rates were at 4.81% two weeks ago, and are now at 5.57%. With the 10 year yielding 3.9%, mortgage rates will probably rise again this week.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 2002.

Although we can't compare directly to earlier periods because of the changes in the index, this shows no pick up in overall sales activity.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 01:47:00 AM

When I saw the title of the following article, I was wary that the median price was being distorted by the mix of homes being sold (a mix of more low end homes lowers the median). But Peter Hong at the LA Times gives some specific examples of prices going back 20 years or more.

From the LA Times: Median home prices drop below 1989 levels in some parts of Southland

To return to the past, take a stroll down Mulberry Avenue in Lancaster. John A. Beatrice, 55, bought his spacious two-story Spanish-style house there brand-new for $120,000 in 1989. It was a price he could comfortably afford, and he planned on staying through retirement, so he wasn't worried about price swings.
...
But he never imagined his neighborhood would drop off the charts. In April, a slightly larger home two doors away sold for $66,500. That's just over half the $130,000 it went for new in 1992. In 2005, that house sold for $330,000.

And another example ...

[Patricia] Hynes bought her three-bedroom home in Lancaster brand-new for $119,000 in 1989 ... Her home is an island in a sea of repos. Houses on both sides have fallen into foreclosure; one is priced $10,000 less than the amount she paid 20 years ago.

Nearby, a four-bedroom, 2,100-square-foot home sold in May for $89,000.

Most of these areas are suffering negative absorption (families are moving out) and are the least desirable areas in SoCal. And there are more foreclosures coming ...

Another tsunami of foreclosures is threatening to swamp an already saturated market. In Palmdale and Lancaster, 903 homes were sold in April, but according to ForeclosureRadar, more than 7,500 are in some stage of foreclosure.

Some buyers who thought they were getting bargains didn't. In Lancaster, Beatrice's eldest son, Daniel, bought a house near his father's for $175,000 in April 2008; comparable properties are now selling for about $95,000.

Get ready for 1979 prices!

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 12:29:00 AM

By request, here is an open thread for discussion.

Futures are up slightly ...

Futures from barchart.com

Bloomberg Futures.

CBOT mini-sized Dow

CME Globex Flash Quotes

And the Asian markets are mostly up.

Best to all.