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Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Mortgage Rates and the Ten Year Yield

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2009 01:08:00 PM

Here is a new tool from Political Calculations: Predicting Mortgage Rates and Treasury Yields

This is based off the chart I posted last Friday and is very timely with the Ten Year Yield pushing 4%.

Using their tool, with the Ten Year yield at 3.99%, this suggests that 30 year mortgage rates will rise to 5.8% based on the historical relationship between the Ten Year yield and mortgage rates.

According to the MBA the "average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.57 percent" last week. So rates will probably be higher this week.

BTW, I first used the term "Bernanke's conundrum" in 2005 to describe what I thought would happen when the Fed rate was low following the housing bust - and the long rate started to rise.