by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2011 06:47:00 PM

By request, I've added links for the Weekly Schedule of economic releases and the graph galleries at the bottom of the first post.

The graph galleries are a collection of the most recent versions of frequently updated graphs. (Older versions are removed).

The Graph Galleries are grouped by Employment, New Home Sales, Existing Home sales and much more. There are tabs for each gallery. Clicking on a tab will load a gallery. Then thumbnails will appear below the main graph for all of the graphs in the selected gallery. Clicking on the thumbnails will display each graph.

To access the galleries, just click on a graph on the blog - or click on "Graph Galleries" at the bottom of the first post.

As an example, clicking on this graph (based on the most recent employment report), will open the "employment" chart gallery and display this graph - with thumbnails for other employment related graphs.

The "print" key displays the full size image of the selected graph for printing from your browser.

The title below the graph is a link to the post on Calculated Risk and also includes the date the graph was posted to the gallery.

Note: The graphs are free to use on websites or for presentations. All I ask is that online sites link to my site http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ and that printed presentations credit www.calculatedriskblog.com.

Best to all.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week ending September 2nd (with plenty of graphs)

Friday on employment:
• August Employment Report: 0 Jobs (unchanged), 9.1% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2011 11:14:00 AM

Note: This statement was released before the jobs report, and I'd like to focus on some of the details. NFIB’s monthly small business survey for August will be released on Tuesday, September 13, 2011.

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): NFIB Jobs Statement: Job Gains in August? Keep Your Expectations Low

"We wish there was good news to report, but sadly, we will give you more of the same: The prospects for a good jobs report are dim. In August, small-business owners reported job losses averaging .08 workers per firm over the last three months. This follows a loss of .23 workers per firm reported in June and .15 workers per firm in July. The good news is that the trend is moving in the right direction—losses appear to be decreasing—although it doesn’t seem to be moving fast enough to close the employment void we’ve been experiencing for the last several years." [said William C. Dunkelberg, Chief economist for (NFIB)]
...
“While the readings remain historically weak, we can find a grain of encouragement as we look at hiring prospects. Over the next three months, 11 percent plan to increase employment (up 1 point), and 12 percent plan to reduce their workforce (also up 1 point), yielding a seasonally adjusted net 5 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, which is a 3 point improvement over July."

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Here is a graph of the net hiring plans for the next three months since 1986.

Hiring plans were still low in August, but positive and improving.

It is no surprise that small businesses are struggling due to the high concentration of real estate related companies in the survey. But as Dunkelberg noted, current small business hiring (fewer job losses) and hiring plans are both slowly moving in the right direction.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week ending September 2nd (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of September 4th

Friday on employment:
• August Employment Report: 0 Jobs (unchanged), 9.1% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• Employment graph gallery

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2011 09:00:00 AM

From Kash Mansori at The Street Light: Europe's Banking System: The Transatlantic Cash Flow

And now, the flip side of the story presented [Thursday], in which ECB data seems to indicate that monetary financial institutions (MFIs) in Europe have been moving their deposits out of European banks. Where is that money going?
...
European banks are shifting their cash assets out of European banks and putting much of them into US banks. ... This has happened at a significant rate, with a net transatlantic flow from European to US banks that probably totals close to half a trillion dollars in just six months.

If you're wondering exactly who has been the first to lose confidence in the European banking system, look no further. It seems that at the forefront is the European banking system itself.

by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2011 08:01:00 PM

Note: I've updated the percent job losses in recession graphs. With an earlier BLS revision, the peak of employment moved to January 2008 instead of December 2007. This matters if we are counting the number of months below the previous peak. (ht Scott)

By request, here is an update to several participation rate graphs. Here is a look at some the long term trends (updated graphs through August 2011).

The following graph shows the changes in the participation rates for men and women since 1960 (in the 25 to 54 age group - the prime working years).

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The participation rate for women increased significantly from the mid 30s to the mid 70s and has mostly flattened out this year - the rate increased slightly in August to 74.7%. The participation rate for men has decreased from the high 90s a few decades ago, to 88.7% in August 2011. (up slightly from July).

There will probably be some "bounce back" for both men and women (some of the recent decline is probably cyclical), but the long term trend for men is down.

The next graph shows that participation rates for several key age groups.

There are a few key long term trends:
• The participation rate for the '16 to 19' age group has been falling for some time (red). This was at 34.5% in August.

• The participation rate for the 'over 55' age group has been rising since the mid '90s (purple), although this has stalled out a little recently (perhaps cyclical). This was at 40.2% in August.

• The participation rate for the '20 to 24' age group fell recently too (perhaps more people are focusing on eduction before joining the labor force). This appears to have stabilized - although it was down to 70.5% in August, from 71.5% in August 2010, and I expect the participation rate to increase for this cohort as the job market improves.

The third graph shows the participation rate for several over 55 age groups. The red line is the '55 and over' total seasonally adjusted. All of the other age groups are Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

The participation rate is generally trending up for all older age groups.

Eventually the 'over 55' participation rate will start to decline as the oldest baby boomers move into even older age groups.

I've been expecting some small bounce back in the overall participation rate, but I don't think the bounce back will be huge - and we haven't seen it yet. The overall participation rate increased slightly in August to 64.0% from 63.9% in July (the lowest rate in almost 30 years).

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending September 2nd (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of September 4th

Yesterday:
• August Employment Report: 0 Jobs (unchanged), 9.1% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• Employment graph gallery

by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2011 02:31:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending September 2nd (with plenty of graphs)

The key economic releases this week are the July trade balance report on Thursday, and the August ISM non-manufacturing index on Tuesday.

On Thursday, President Obama will address a joint session of Congress regarding the economy and jobs. Also on Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak on the economic outlook. The Fed's Beige Book, to be released on Wednesday, should provide some discussion of the recent economic weakness.

----- Monday, Sept 5th -----
Labor Day: All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

----- Tuesday, Sept 6th -----
10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for a decrease to 50.5 in August from 52.7 in July.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index. The July ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 52.7% and the employment index decreased to 52.5% in July.

1:10 PM: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks at the University of Minnesota

----- Wednesday, Sept 7th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months and the four average was at the lowest level since 1995 last week.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

In general job openings (yellow) has been trending up - and job openings increased slightly again in June - and were up about 16% year-over-year compared to June 2010.

2:00 PM: Fed's Beige Book. This is an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions.

4:00 PM: San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks to the Seattle Rotary Club on the economic outlook.

----- Thursday, Sept 8th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 410,000 from 409,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through June 2011.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to delcine to $51.0 billion, down from $53.1 billion in June.

1:30 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on "The U.S. Economic Outlook", At the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis, Minnesota

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for July. The consensus is for a $6.0 billion increase in consumer credit.

7:00 PM: President Obama will address a joint session of Congress regarding the economy and jobs.

----- Friday, Sept 9th -----
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for July. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase.

11:30 AM: San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at Asian Banking Symposium.