by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2025 08:18:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

September sales will be mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates averaged 6.72% in July and 6.59% in August (lower than for closed sales in July).

In September, sales in these early reporting markets were up 7.0% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 1.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2025 07:54:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: MMortgage Rates Start The Week Near Recent Highs

Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days. This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the past 2.5 weeks have been very narrow and today's rates are merely at the upper edge of that range (i.e. not much different than the recent lows).
...
More extreme rate movement remains on hold until the government shutdown ends, thus allowing the publication of the big-ticket economic reports that have the biggest impacts on rates. [30 year fixed 6.38%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of September 16-17, 2025

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2025 01:22:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.8% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent dipped by 0.4% in September, and now stands at $1,394. This was the second consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’ve now entered the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we’ll continue to see further modest rent declines through the remainder of the year.

Realtor.com: 25th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

In August 2025, the U.S. median rent recorded its 25th consecutive year-over-year decline. Rent for 0–2 bedroom properties across the 50 largest metropolitan areas dropped by 2.2% compared to the previous year, with the median asking rent at $1,713—just $5 lower than the prior month.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2025 09:52:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

House Prices Up 1.2% Year-over-year

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 1.2% year-over-year in September, up from 1.0% YoY in August.

• Annual home price growth re-accelerated in early September following eight consecutive months of slowing ‒ rising to +1.2% from a revised +1.0% in August – as falling inventory met improved affordability from easing mortgage rates

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose by +0.17% in the month, equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of +2.1%, suggesting the annual home price growth rate may tick modestly higher in coming months

• The bulk of the firming occurred among single family residences, which are up +1.5% from the same time last year, an increase from +1.3% in August

• The condo market remains soft, with prices down -1.8% from the same time last year, a modest improvement from -1.9% in August

• Only 20% of markets saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, the fewest in nine months and down from 55% just two months prior

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory increased 0.2% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 17.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 18.0%), and down 9.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.6%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 3rd, inventory was at 864 thousand (7-day average), compared to 863 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2025 06:20:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 5, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 6 and DOW futures are up 46 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $61.73 per barrel and Brent at $65.47 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $79 - so WTI oil prices are down about 17% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.14 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.05 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2025 08:21:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), combines seasonally adjusted rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain. The index fell 0.8% in September 2025 from August 2025, its fifth decline in the past six months. Still, the index is only 1.0% below its level from a year earlier, indicating that recent weakness reflects a gradual adjustment rather than a sharp downturn.
emphasis added

Rail traffic volumes continue to adjust to evolving market conditions. In September 2025, total U.S. rail carloads fell 1.2% year-over-year, with 12 of the 20 major carload categories tracked by the AAR posting declines.
...
U.S. intermodal rail shipments, which are closely tied to consumer demand and international trade, fell 1.3% in September 2025 from September 2024.

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year

• Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

• Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales

• Lawler: NAR “Fixes” Median Sales Price for July

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the August Trade Deficit (Will not be released if government shutdown).

----- Monday, October 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, October 7th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of September 16-17, 2025

----- Wednesday, October 8th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, October 9th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. 

----- Friday, October 10th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 01:15:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.8% q/q saar from 2.6% after 2Q GDP came in at 3.8% in the third estimate. [October 3rd estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting stronger consumer spending in August and a more favorable monthly path between Q2 and Q3 than we had previously assumed. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate now stands at +1.9%. [September 26th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on October 1, down from 3.9 percent on September 26. After this morning’s release from the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent was partially offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent. The US Census Bureau construction spending report was not released this morning because of the government shutdown. We plan on maintaining the release schedule throughout the shutdown but will skip updates if there are no monthly data releases since the last GDPNow update. [October 1st estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.0%, down from 52.0% last month. The employment index increased to 47.2%, up from 46.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50% September 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In September, the Services PMI® registered an unchanged reading of 50 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the August figure of 52 percent. The Business Activity Index moved into contraction territory in September, registering 49.9 percent, 5.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 55 percent recorded in August. This is the first time the index has entered contraction territory since May 2020. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in September, with a reading of 50.4 percent, down 5.6 percent from August’s figure of 56 percent. The Employment Index remained in contraction territory for the fourth month in a row and the fifth time in the last six months; the reading of 47.2 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.5 percent recorded in August.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.6 percent, 2.3 percentage points higher than the 50.3 percent recorded in August and its highest reading since February (53.4 percent). This is the 10th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 69.4 percent in September, a 0.2-percentage point increase from August’s reading of 69.2 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 10 straight months, its longest such streak since 30 consecutive readings above 60 percent from October 2020 to March 2023.
emphasis added

Employment was in contraction for the 4th consecutive month, and prices paid was high.

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 08:01:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 17.0% YoY, but still down 13.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Sept. 27

• Active inventory climbed 16.2% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 16.2% year over year, the easing compared to last week for the 15th straight time. Nevertheless, last week was the 99th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 22nd week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—down 0.5% year over year

New listings fell 0.5% last week compared with the same period last year, marking just the third weekly decline since April. This softening is reflected in the September Monthly Housing Report data, where newly listed homes fell 1.2% year over year. The decline in new listings is in part behind the slowdown in national inventory gains over the past few months, as sellers retreat from the market.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price was flat compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, we saw the price per square foot fell 0.5% year over year for the fourth consecutive week. The price per square foot had been growing steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and stalled out this metric, suggesting underlying home values are starting to soften—at least in national aggregates.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 08:13:00 PM

NOTE: The employment report will not be released due to the government shutdown.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• At 10:00 AM,: the ISM Services Index for September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 01:41:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure!

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 27 September

Impacted by the Rosh Hashanah holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 27 September. ...

21-27 September 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.6% (-4.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$166.48 (-2.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.15 (-6.6%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase during the Fall travel period.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 10:57:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the July Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.8% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.2% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $444,000 today adjusted for inflation (48% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.7% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 2.9% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in July.

It has now been 38 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 08:11:00 AM

Note: Heavy truck sales will not be available from the BEA during the shutdown.

Omida reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.4 million in September on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

This was up 2% from the sales rate in August, and up 4% from September 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through July (red).

Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".

Then sales were depressed in May and June. 

Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in September were above the consensus forecast of 16.2 million SAAR.

A solid September was expected, but there is concern about sales in Q4. Earlier, from Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay site): US Light Vehicle Sales in September Tracking to Another Gain as Auto Industry Casts a Wary Eye on 4Q

September US light-vehicle sales will continue the market strength seen all year, but all eyes are on the fourth quarter as tariff-related pull-ahead volume dissipates, EV credits disappear, and automakers price their ’26 models.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 07:31:00 PM

NOTE: Unemployment claims will not be released with the government shutdown. Also, I use the BEA for vehicle sales data and that will not be released.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 218 thousand last week.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 11:59:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.10% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in August. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.6% in August, down from up 1.7% YoY in July. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. ...

As of August, 20 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in Florida (-3.3), Arizona (-3.1%), New Mexico (-2.3%), D.C. (-2.1%) and Idaho (-1.8%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 186 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 4 of the 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 15 of the 30 cities are in Florida.

Texas has the 2nd most CBSAs on the list.

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.1% in September, up from 48.7% in August. The employment index was at 45.3%, up from 43.8% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.9%, down from 51.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% September 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted in September following one month of growth; the figure of 48.9 percent is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 51.4 percent recorded in August. The September reading of the Production Index (51 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 47.8 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 61.9 percent, down 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 63.7 percent reported in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.2 percent, up 1.5 percentage points compared to the 44.7 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 45.3 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from August’s figure of 43.8 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in September.  This was at the consensus forecast, although employment was weak and prices very strong.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 08:15:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 32,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added

This was well below the consensus forecast of 48,000 jobs added. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 43,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September.