by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2025 08:21:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), combines seasonally adjusted rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain. The index fell 0.8% in September 2025 from August 2025, its fifth decline in the past six months. Still, the index is only 1.0% below its level from a year earlier, indicating that recent weakness reflects a gradual adjustment rather than a sharp downturn.
emphasis added

Rail traffic volumes continue to adjust to evolving market conditions. In September 2025, total U.S. rail carloads fell 1.2% year-over-year, with 12 of the 20 major carload categories tracked by the AAR posting declines.
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U.S. intermodal rail shipments, which are closely tied to consumer demand and international trade, fell 1.3% in September 2025 from September 2024.