by Calculated Risk on 3/05/2010 09:47:00 AM

Here are a few more graphs based on the employment report ...

Employment-Population Ratio

The Employment-Population ratio ticked up slightly to 58.5% in February, after plunging since the start of the recession. This is about the same level as in 1983.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The general upward trend from the early '60s was mostly due to women entering the workforce.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased slightly to 64.8% (the percentage of the working age population in the labor force). This is at the level of the early 80s.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased from 8.3 to 8.8 million in February, partially offsetting a large decrease in the prior month. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) increased sharply to 8.8 million.

The all time record of 9.2 million was set in October. The increase this month might have been weather related.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.

According to the BLS, there are 6.13 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is 4.0% of the civilian workforce, a slight decrease from the 6.3 million and 4.1% record set last month. (note: records started in 1948)

The number of long term unemployed is one of the key stories of this recession.

Overall there were some positives in the report: the unemployment rate was steady, and the employment-population ratio ticked up slightly (after plunging sharply). Although average hours worked decreased slightly, and part time workers increased - those were probably both impacted by the weather (usually hours worked is impacted more than the headline number by snow storms).

I'll have even more later ...

Earlier employment post today:

Employment Report: 36K Jobs Lost, 9.7% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.

by Calculated Risk on 3/05/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-36,000) in February, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and information, while temporary help services added jobs. Severe winter weather in parts of the country may have affected payroll employment and hours; however, it is not possible to quantify precisely the net impact of the winter storms on these measures.
...
Major winter storms affected parts of the country during the February reference periods for the establishment and household surveys.

In the establishment survey, the reference period was the pay period including February 12th. In order for severe weather conditions to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be off work for an entire pay period and not be paid for the time missed. About half of all workers in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semi-monthly, or monthly pay period. Workers who received pay for any part of the reference pay period, even one hour, are counted in the February payroll employment figures. While some persons may have been off payrolls during the survey reference period, some industries, such as those dealing with cleanup and repair activities, may have added workers.

In the household survey, the reference period was the calendar week of February 7-13. People who miss work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 36,000 in February. The economy has lost almost 3.3 million jobs over the last year, and 8.43 million jobs since the beginning of the current employment recession.

The unemployment rate is at 9.7 percent.

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

Note: the impact of the weather on the survey is unknown, but was probably minimal. Census hiring was 15,000 (NSA).

I'll have much more soon ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2010 11:08:00 PM

While everyone is thinking snow and (un)employment ... this is just a reminder that the weather is nice in Puerto Rico. It is very possible that the FDIC will close a bank there tomorrow, see: Reports on Possible Imminent Bank Failures.

Also Dow Jones had some interesting speculation today (no link) about the differences between the assets of the number of banks with formal actions or capital deficiencies, and the assets of the banks on the FDIC's problem bank list.

[W]hat's known about the list, combined with data about banks known to have capital deficiencies, suggests one or more regional banks, those with maybe $20 billion or more in assets, are deemed to be in danger.

I think it's quite possible that someone in that size range is on the list," said Bert Ely, an independent banking consultant.

Dow Jones Newswires found 653 banks with some outward indication of a capital deficiency--that is, banks below regulators' "well-capitalized" thresholds on one or more key capital ratios or subject to a formal order from regulators requiring them to improve or monitor their capital. The numbers were compiled using data from SNL Financial, a financial-information company. [CR Note: Our Unofficial list has 644 banks].

Most of these banks are likely on the FDIC's problem list. The total is close to the 702 tallied by the FDIC. But the 653 banks have total assets of $313.2 billion--far below the $402.8 billion of the FDIC list.

So it is possible that a fairly large regional bank has been added to the list.

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2010 06:58:00 PM

First a quote from a Bloomberg story: U.S. Economy: Pending Sales of Existing Homes Decline

“When you take away all the support from the housing market, the underlying demand for housing is a lot weaker than we thought,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We clearly pushed some demand forward, and there wasn’t that much demand to pull forward anyway. The housing recovery is going to be very, very slow.”

This is no surprise and suggests that the extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit will probably cost taxpayers over $100,000 for each additional home sold.

Just about every economist opposed the tax credit as expensive and ineffective. Here are some quotes from a post last September from an article by Patrick Coolican in the Las Vegas Sun: Economists say extending tax credit for first-time homebuyers is bad policy

It’s terrible policy,” says Mark Calabria of the libertarian Cato Institute.

“It’s awful policy,” says Andrew Jakabovics, associate director for housing and economics at the liberal Center for American Progress. “It’s incredibly expensive. It’s not well targeted.”
...
“We paid $8,000 to at least 1.5 million people to do something they were going to do anyway,” Jakabovics says.
...
“A heck of a lot of people would have bought the house anyway,” says Ted Gayer, an economist at the Brookings Institution.
...
The tax break, due to expire at the end of November, is on track to cost $15 billion, twice what Congress had planned. In other words, it will cost $43,000 for every new homebuyer who would not have bought a house without the tax break.

Gayer also questions whether moving people from renting to owning is really all that useful ...

The tax credit is one, albeit very expensive, way to create more households, but rental vouchers to get people out of their parents’ basements should also be considered, economists say.

The only good news is the tax credit supporters have promised "practically in blood" that they will not ask for another extension.

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2010 04:36:00 PM

Here is the Federal Reserve balance sheet break down from the Atlanta Fed weekly Financial Highlights released today (as of last week):

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Graph Source: Altanta Fed.

From the Atlanta Fed:

The balance sheet expanded $9.7 billion, to $2.3 trillion, for the week ended February 24.

Holdings of agency debt and mortgage backed securities, which rose by $8 billion, accounted for the majority of the expansion of the balance sheet and continue to replace lending to nonbank credit markets and short-term lending to financials.

The balance sheet is expected to peak during the first half of this year after the MBS purchase program is completed and purchases settle on the balance sheet.

The second graph shows the cumulative MBS purchases by week. From the Atlanta Fed:

The Fed purchased a net total of $11 billion of agency-backed MBS through the week of February 24, bringing its total purchases up to $1.210 trillion, and by the end of the first quarter 2010 the Fed will have purchased $1.25 trillion (thus, it is 97% complete).

The NY Fed purchased an additional net $10 billion in MBS for the week ending ending March 3rd. This puts the total purchases at $1.220 trillion or almost 98% complete. Just $30 billion more to go ...

The Fed's balance sheet released today shows "only" $1.027 trillion in MBS. The difference is that the NY Fed announces the purchases when they contract to buy; the Federal Reserve places the MBS on the balance sheet when the contract settles. Most of the agency MBS market is "To-Be-Announced" trading, and many of the contracts will not settle for a couple of months.

To understand ""To-Be-Announced", here is a discussion from SIFMA (ht Windward.Broach):

"To-Be-Announced" Trading of Agency Passthrough Securities

Much of the volume in the agency MBS market today is in the form of “To-Be-Announced” (TBA) trading. A TBA is a contract for the purchase or sale of agency mortgage-backed securities to be delivered at a future agreed-upon date; however, the actual pool identities or the number of pools that will be delivered to fulfill the trade obligation or terms of the contract are unknown at the time of the trade.
...
For example, in a typical trade, a buyer may ask to purchase $100 million of 30 year Fannie Mae MBS with a 6% coupon for delivery next month. The buyer does not know the exact bonds that will be delivered. According to industry practice, two days before the contractual settlement date of the trade, the seller will communicate to the buyer the exact details of the MBS pools that will be delivered.

It takes some time for the purchases to settle, and this has confused some people. The NY Fed number is the one to follow when tracking the Fed MBS purchase program. The Fed's MBS balance sheet holdings will continue to expand even after the MBS purchase program ends on March 31st as contracts settle.

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2010 02:58:00 PM

From Freddie Mac:

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.97 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending March 4, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 5.05 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.15 percent.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

As an aside, in a research note yesterday, Goldman Sachs argued "our analysis only points to a modest rise in mortgage rates of around 10bp when the Fed stops buying MBS in a few weeks." Further they argue the large increase (maybe 80 bps increase in spread) will not happen until the Fed announces they will be selling MBS.

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2010 11:53:00 AM

From HotelNewsNow.com: San Francisco leads weekly results

Overall the U.S. industry’s occupancy ended the week with a 2.5-percent increase to 55.3 percent, ADR dropped 4.7 percent to US$96.06, and RevPAR fell 2.3 percent to US$53.15.

The following graph shows the occupancy rate by week since 2000, and the rolling 52 week average occupancy rate.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Note: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The graph shows the distinct seasonal pattern for the occupancy rate; higher in the summer because of leisure/vacation travel, and lower on certain holidays.

The YoY change suggests that occupancy rates may have bottomed, but the level is still very low - the average occupancy rate for this week is around 62%, well above the current 55.3%. This low occupancy rate is still pushing down room rates and revenue per available room (RevPAR).

Business travel is very important for the next few months, and right now it appears the weekday occupancy rate (mostly business travel) is slightly above the levels of last year during the worst of the recession.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2010 10:02:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Down; Severe Weather Impacting Market

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, fell 7.6 percent to 90.4 from an upwardly revised 97.8 in December ...

“We will see weak near-term sales followed by a likely surge of existing-home sales in April, May and June,” [Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist] said. “The real question is what happens in the second half of the year."

The Pending Home Sales Index isn't perfect, but this does generally lead existing home sales by about 45 days. The January index suggests sales in February and March will probably be lower than the 5.05 million SAAR in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

I also expect sales to increase in May and June (above the normal seasonal factors) because of the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. Although I don't think we will see an increase like last year when sales spiked to 6.54 million SAAR in November.

The NAR is currently forecasting an annualized existing home sales rate of 5.1 million homes in Q1, 5.8 million in Q2, and about 5.5 million in the 2nd half of 2010. I think those numbers are generally high - especially in the 2nd half of 2010.

by Calculated Risk on 3/04/2010 08:29:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Feb. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 469,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 498,000. The 4-week moving average was 470,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 474,250.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 20 was 4,500,000, a decrease of 134,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,634,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 3,500 to 470,750.

The current level of 469,000 (and 4-week average of 470,750) are very high and suggest continuing job losses in February.

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2010 11:33:00 PM

From the Financial Times: Greece prepared to turn to IMF

Mr Papandreou said that the latest austerity package ... fulfilled Greece’s commitment to its eurozone partners ... “We are waiting for European support – the other side of the agreement,” Mr Papandreou said ... he told ministers that Greece could turn to the IMF for an emergency loan if its EU partners were unable to deliver adequate assistance ...
excepted with permission

And from Bloomberg: Greece Aid Plea Snubbed by Germany in ‘Historic Moment’ for EU

“We have fulfilled to the utmost all that we must from our side; now it’s Europe’s turn,” Papandreou told his ministers yesterday, according to an e-mailed transcript. “It is a historic moment for the European Union.”
...
“I expressly want to say that Friday isn’t about aid commitments, but about good relations between Germany and Greece,” [German Chancellor Angela Merkel] said yesterday in an interview with N-TV ...

The story remains fluid, and a key date is March 16th when the euro-zone finance ministers meet.

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2010 08:06:00 PM

Just an update:

H.R. 4691: Temporary Extension Act of 2010 was signed into law last night.

Extends the final date for entering a federal-state agreement under the Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program through April 5, 2010.

From Ron Scherer at the Christian Science Monitor:

The extension means if an individual was about to exhaust their state benefits and about to exhaust a tier of emergency unemployment compensation, they are eligible to apply to move up to the next tier. However, if an individual is about to exhaust their final tier or extended benefits, this will not help them.

“This does not add more weeks of benefits, it just extends the deadline in which people can qualify for either Emergency Unemployment Compensation or extended benefits,” says Judy Conti of NELP in Washington.

The 30-day extension of the benefits will cost the federal government about $10 billion.

I wonder how many people have exhausted all of their unemployment benefits?

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2010 04:50:00 PM

The BLS released the annual average state unemployment rates today.

Here is a scatter graph comparing the delinquency rate for mortgage loans (including all loans in foreclosure) vs. unemployment rate for all states as of Q4 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

There definitely is a relationship between delinquency rates and the unemployment rate, although some states stand out (like Florida), because of state specific foreclosure laws. Arizona and Nevada also have higher than expected foreclosure rates - possibly because of high investor activity during the housing bubble.

This does suggest that a large part of the delinquency problem is related to the unemployment problem.

Imagine if there were no unemployment benefits. As Mark Thoma noted yesterday, Unemployment Compensation has Broad Based Benefits, but one benefit he didn't mention is that it keeps households in place. Even though there is a relationship between the unemployment rate and the delinquency rate, I suspect the trend line would be steeper without unemployment benefits (so there would be even more delinquencies as the unemployment rate rises without benefits).

Here is a sortable table to find the data for each state (use scroll bar to see all data).

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2010 02:00:00 PM

From the Fed: Beige Book

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic conditions continued to expand since the last report, although severe snowstorms in early February held back activity in several Districts. Nine Districts reported that economic activity improved, but in most cases the increases were modest. Overall conditions were described as mixed in the Atlanta and St. Louis Districts, though St. Louis noted further signs of improvement in some areas. Richmond reported that economic activity slackened or remained soft across most sectors, due importantly to especially severe February weather in that region.

On real estate:

Residential real estate markets improved in a number of Districts, remained weak or softened further in the New York, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts, was little changed in the San Francisco District, and characterized as mixed in the St. Louis District. Richmond also reported overall housing activity as mixed, but one contact noted that absent the harsh weather, market conditions might have improved. Adverse weather conditions also hampered home sales and construction in the New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta Districts. Most Districts attributed stronger home sales to the home-buyer tax credit, with several contacts apprehensive about future sales once the credit expires on April 30. ... Home construction was down or stagnant in most Districts, with the exception of the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts. Atlanta said the most pronounced weakness was among Georgia homebuilders, and San Francisco attributed weak construction activity to elevated home inventory levels. Home prices mostly remained flat or declined slightly, but signs of improvement were noted in the Boston and San Francisco Districts. ...

Commercial real estate conditions remained weak or declined further in most Districts, although some Districts noted slight stabilization or modest signs of improvement. ... Several Districts also noted that many tenants were pushing for, and in some cases receiving, concessions on rents. All Districts reporting on commercial construction said that activity remained weak or slow, except for some moderate boost from federal stimulus projects and other public construction.

Even without the snow, the increases were "modest".

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2010 01:02:00 PM

From Altanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: Recovery and Reform Excerpts:

My current forecast—and that of my staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta—lines up with ... the modest recovery scenario.

The incoming data through last week have not made me alter my basic forecast, but I consider it still too early to make a definitive call on which scenario will play out. The January numbers, as you may know, have been mixed. Consumer spending was strong for the month, while business spending on capital goods was weak, and job growth was flat. Upside surprises in inventories, capital spending, and consumption could tip the scales in favor of a stronger growth forecast. I will be particularly attentive, watching for evidence of these developments as the recovery proceeds.

Because I hold to this forecast of modest recovery and believe inflation is likely to remain subdued, I fully support the message of the most recent FOMC statement to the effect that the fed funds target rate will remain exceptionally low for an extended period.

This is a follow-up to Lockhart's The Economic Outlook: A Tale of Two Narratives.

I still expect the recovery to be sluggish and choppy in 2010, but for the economy to avoid a "double dip" recession.

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2010 10:00:00 AM

This report shows improvement in the service sector, although employment declined for the 26th consecutive month.

From the Institute for Supply Management: February 2010 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

"The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 53 percent in February, 2.5 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 50.5 percent registered in January, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 2.6 percentage points to 54.8 percent, reflecting growth for the third consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 0.3 percentage point to 55 percent, and the Employment Index increased 4 percentage points to 48.6 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.8 percentage point to 60.4 percent in February, indicating an increase in prices paid from January. According to the NMI, nine non-manufacturing industries reported growth in February. Respondents' comments vary by industry and company about business conditions."
...
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in February for the 26th consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for February registered 48.6 percent. This reflects an increase of 4 percentage points when compared to the seasonally adjusted 44.6 percent registered in January.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2010 08:29:00 AM

ADP reports:

Nonfarm private employment decreased 20,000 from January to February 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from December 2009 to January 2010 was revised down, from a decline of 22,000 to a decline of 60,000. The February employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008.

Two large blizzards smothered parts of the east coast during the reference period for the BLS establishment survey. The adverse weather had only a very small effect on today’s ADP Report due to the methodology used to construct it. However, the adverse weather is widely expected to depress the BLS estimate of the monthly change in employment for February, but boost it for March. Therefore, it would not be unreasonable to expect the BLS estimate for February (due out this Friday) to be less than today’s ADP Report even though the BLS estimate will include the hiring of temporary Census workers not captured in the ADP Report.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

On the Challenger job-cut report from MarketWatch: Planned layoffs drop to lowest level since 2006

February's total of 42,090 planned layoffs was 41% below January's 71,482 and 77% lower than the 186,350 job cuts tracked in February 2009, at the depth of the recession. It was the lowest monthly total since July 2006.

The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for a loss of 50,000 to 80,000 payroll jobs in February, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, and the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 9.8%.

by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2010 07:21:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Market Composite Index ... increased 14.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

“Mortgage applications rebounded last week, particularly refis, as rates dropped back below 5 percent,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Purchase activity remains subdued, with application volumes remaining within the narrow range seen in the last few months.”

The Refinance Index increased 17.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9.0 percent from one week earlier. ...

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 69.1 percent of total applications from 68.1 percent the previous week. ...

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.95 percent from 5.03 percent, with points decreasing to 0.99 from 1.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Even with the increase in purchase applications this week, the level is back to the levels of 1997.

Also, with mortgage rates back below 5% again, refinance activity increased last week.

by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2010 09:30:00 PM

With all the talk about the impact of the February snow storms on employment, it is worth remembering that the temporary hiring for Census 2010 will also distort the payroll employment numbers.

Luckily the Census Bureau provides a monthly report on net hiring for the decennial census: Census 2010 temporary and intermittent workers

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the monthly change in Federal government employment during the 2010 census (January in red) and the last two decennial census periods (1990 and 2000).

During the previous two census years, there was a sharp increase in payroll employment in March and April, and a surge in May. And then almost all of the jobs were lost in the June through September period. We should expect a similar pattern this year.

Note: there are reports that the Census Bureau will hire up to 1.4 million people, however that represents some contingency planning, and includes a number of people already hired temporarily in 2009. We can probably expect a couple hundred thousand people added between January through April, and another 500 thousand or so in May. This could push the unemployment rate down slightly, but probably in the 0.1% to 0.2% range.

The Census Bureau is gearing up: Census Takers Begin Hand Delivering 2010 Census Questionnaires to 12 Million U.S. Addresses

About 56,000 census workers today began hand delivering 2010 Census questionnaires to roughly 12 million addresses across the nation, mostly in rural areas where people do not receive mail at the same location as their residence. Most of nation’s 120 million households, about 90 percent of the U.S. population, should look for their 10-question forms to arrive by mail mid-March.
...
In 2000, 72 percent of households that received a form mailed it back. The mail participation rate is a new measure designed to give a better picture of actual participation by factoring out census forms that the U.S. Postal Service was unable to deliver as addressed. It should be particularly useful in areas with seasonal populations or a large number of vacancies or foreclosures.

“It costs us just 42 cents in a postage paid envelope when households mail back their 2010 Census forms,” Groves said. “The Census Bureau will spend about $25 per person if we have to go out and knock on the doors of households that don’t mail them back.”

A few key points:

The 2010 Census will probably add about 30,000 payroll jobs in February.

Starting in February, I'll post the headline net payroll numbers, and ex-Census.

If you want to reduce the deficit, mail it back!

by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2010 06:10:00 PM

From the American Bankruptcy Institute: February Consumer Bankruptcy Filings up 14 Percent over Last Year

The 111,693 consumer bankruptcies filed in February represented a 14 percent increase nationwide over the 98,344 filings recorded in February 2009, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI), relying on data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center (NBKRC). NBKRC’s data also showed that the February 2010 consumer filings represented a 9 percent increase over the 102,254 consumer filings recorded in January 2010. ...

“While Congress and the Obama administration continue to consider measures to reduce high unemployment and mortgage burdens, families with increasing debt loads have little choice but to continue to turn to bankruptcy for financial relief,” said ABI Executive Director Samuel J. Gerdano. “Consumer filings this year will likely surpass 1.5 million filings, or the same number of annual filings averaged in the years leading up to the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the non-business bankruptcy filings by quarter (Q1 2010 is estimated based on January and February data).

The ABI's forecast for over 1.5 million filings is at about the same level as prior to when the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA) took effect.

by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2010 03:39:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for February (red, light vehicle sales of 10.4 million SAAR from AutoData Corp).

This is a 3.5% decline from the January sales rate.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

This is the lowest level since September - when sales fell sharply after the "Cash-for-clunkers" program ended in August. The current level of sales are very low, and are still below the lowest point for the '90/'91 recession (even with a larger population).

Right now it looks like both seasonally adjusted auto sales and residential investment will be lower in Q1 than in Q4 2009.