by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2009 11:47:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 19 states registered rate decreases, and 8 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
...
In September, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 43 states and the District of Columbia and increased in 7 states.
...
Michigan again recorded the highest unemployment rate among the states, 15.3 percent, in September. The states with the next highest rates were Nevada, 13.3 percent; Rhode Island, 13.0 percent; and California, 12.2 percent. The rates in Nevada and Rhode Island set new series highs. Florida, at 11.0 percent, also posted a series high.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the high and low unemployment rates for each state (and D.C.) since 1976. The red bar is the current unemployment rate (sorted by the current unemployment rate).

Fourteen states and D.C. now have double digit unemployment rates.

New Jersey, Indiana, and Missouri are all close.

Three states are at record unemployment rates: Rhode Island, Nevada, and Florida. Several others - like California, Delaware, North Carolina and Georgia - are close.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2009 09:11:00 AM

From Reuters: U.S. architecture billings up in September-AIA

... The Architecture Billings Index was up 1.4 points at 43.1, matching July's level, according to the American Institute of Architects.

The index has remained below 50, indicating contraction in demand for design services, since January 2008.
...
A measure of inquiries for new projects, however, rose to 59.1, its highest in two years -- "an encouraging sign," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.

"Some larger stimulus-funded building activity should be coming online over the next several months, partially offsetting the steep decline in private commercial construction," Baker said.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index has remained below 50, indicating falling demand, since January 2008.

Note: Nonresidential construction includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

Historically there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on commercial real estate (CRE). This suggests further dramatic declines in CRE investment through most of 2010, if not longer.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2009 08:56:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 13.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

The Refinance Index, also adjusted for the holiday, decreased 16.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7.6 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.07 percent from 5.02 percent, with points increasing to 1.13 from 1.11 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 2002.

The Purchase index declined to 268.8, and the 4-week moving average declined to 284.

Note: The increase in 2007 was due to the method used to construct the index: a combination of lender failures, and borrowers filing multiple applications pushed up the index in 2007, even though activity was actually declining.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 10:18:00 PM

A couple of interesting articles and a daily summary ...

From MarketWatch: Treasury to introduce program to help small banks

The ABA and other bank lobby groups for small banks are seeking to have Treasury develop a program to provide TARP funds to small stressed banks -- those with less than $5 billion in assets -- on the cusp of a default that haven't received TARP funds.

And I thought everyone agreed that the FDIC closing small failing banks - albeit slowly - was an example of how bank problems should be resolved. Now we have "Too small to fail"?

Philly Fed Chairman Charles Plosser, in a speech tonight, questioned the effectiveness of many of the recent Fed actions: Sound Monetary Policy for Good Times and Bad

As the crisis unfolded and problems arose in different parts of the financial system, the Fed responded by trying to increase liquidity in several markets through special lending programs. These programs may have had some stabilizing effects on markets and may have lowered some spreads. Yet, without defining in advance a systematic and consistent approach to such lending, these programs also raised uncertainty — in this case, about who would or would not have access to the various facilities. This was illustrated when the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (or TALF) was announced. Many market participants lobbied for expanding the categories of securities eligible for the program. Did these multiple lending programs keep lenders on the sidelines waiting to see which asset classes the Fed would support and which it would not? Did this delay the healing of the financial markets?

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King criticized the lack of reform and 'too big to fail'. Here is the text of King's speech. Or see The Telegraph and The Times for excerpts.

Housing Starts were flat in September. And I also posted a short comment on why the focus should be on housing starts (and new home sales), and not existing home sales - and why (briefly) I think a V-shaped recovery is not going to happen: Housing and the Economy

I posted some HAMP Modification Documents and some discussion of a trial modification. Note: Reposted documents with all personal information removed.

There was much more discussion of the first-time home buyer tax credit today. The White House expects to announce a decision in the next couple of weeks.

DataQuick reported that California Mortgage Defaults Trended Down in Q3 . This will be a record year for default notices, and DataQuick also noted that defaults are moving up into higher priced areas.

Note: I recently changed the page layout. It now has the last 5 posts, and then short excerpts and links to previous posts.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 07:16:00 PM

A quote from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King in the Telegraph: Mervyn King: bank bail-outs created 'biggest moral hazard in history' (ht Jonathan)

"It is in our collective interest to reduce the dependence of so many households and businesses on so few institutions that engage in so many risky activities. The case for a serious review of how the banking industry is structured and regulated is strong. ... The belief that appropriate regulation can ensure that speculative activities do not result in failures is a delusion. ... It is hard to see how the existence of institutions that are 'too important to fail' is consistent with their being in the private sector."

More from The Times: Mervyn King calls for banks to split as public finances take record hit

“What does seem impractical, however, are the current arrangements. Anyone who proposed giving government guarantees to retail depositors and other creditors, and then suggested that such funding could be used to finance highly risky and speculative activities, would be thought rather unworldly. But that is where we now are.

“It is important that banks in receipt of public support are not encouraged to try to earn their way out of that support by resuming the very activities that got them into trouble in the first place.”
...
“To paraphrase a great wartime leader, never in the field of financial endeavour has so much money been owed by so few to so many. And, one might add, so far with little real reform.”

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 05:12:00 PM

From Reuters: White House skeptical on renewing home buyers credit

[Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun] Donovan told the Senate Banking Committee that while he was aware the program was popular with lawmakers, "At the same time, I am mindful that these proposals can be very expensive, especially at a time of significant budget deficits."
...
Under questioning, Donovan said the administration would make a decision in the coming weeks after it sees more government data on the cost of the tax credit.
...
"I do not believe that a catastrophic decline would be the result of the end of the credit," Donovan said.
emphasis added

And more from Reuters on the widespread fraud: IRS warned again of U.S. homebuyer credit fraud

The internal watchdog for the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is expected to warn the agency for the fourth time about fraud in the multibillion dollar homebuyer tax credit program ... The inspector general found at least 70,000 tax credit claims, totaling $489 million, were granted to individuals who do not appear to qualify for it. ... The agency has opened 107,000 civil cases related to the credit and identified 167 criminal schemes

From Diana Olick at CNBC: HUD Hints on Home Buyer Tax Credit . Olick reviews Donovan's testimony and writes:

[T]hat sounded more like a "No" to me than a "Yes."

And Rex Nutting at MarketWatch reviews many of the arguments against the tax credit: Kill the wasteful home-buyer tax credit

There are other reasons to oppose the tax credit (other than it is expensive and poorly targeted). An extension of the tax credit will increase the apartment vacancy rate, push down rents, and lead to more defaults for CMBS (with falling rents), see Housing Wire: Rating Agencies See More Pain Ahead for Commercial MBS

[S]ervicers of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are ... requiring more time to resolve delinquent loans, according to Fitch Ratings.

The delay for servicers, combined with continued market value declines, indicates loss severities are likely to increase “markedly” for US CMBS well into 2010, according to an annual study by the rating agency.

Multifamily loans in particular, which represent an average cumulative loss severity of 38.6% in 2008, will see a significant increase in loss severity as many markets suffer rising unemployment and oversupply.

And that means more losses for small and regional banks.

And, for fun, from housing economist Tom Lawler (no link, a joke):

Michigan politicians, meanwhile, are arguing that Senator Isakson [sponsor of tax credit] is “almost right” in that housing needs a big boost, but so does the auto industry. As such, legislators from the Wolverine State are working behind the scenes to craft a “bipartisan” bill that would eliminate a home buyer tax credit, but instead would give all home buyers next year an American-made compact car valued up to $15,000 – at, of course, the MSRP, and paid for by the US government. Purportedly one staffer said, “hey, this proposal is no dumber than Isakson’s, and in fact it helps kill two birds with one stone, so to speak!”

This was a joke, but it really is no dumber than the Isakson proposal.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 04:12:00 PM

For those interested, here are some Wells Fargo (America's Servicing Corporation) HAMP documentation (pdf) (ht Dave).

A few notes:

The borrower is delinquent and hasn't made a payment in about one year.

The trial modification plan (three months) calls for three payments of $1170.82 per month (includes an escrow account for taxes and insurance). This is about $1000.00 less than the borrower's previous monthly payment.

The borrower owes approximately $330,000 (including missed payments). Wells Fargo is waiving the late fees if the borrower completes the trial modification plan.

A similar house has recently sold for $150,000 (distressed sale), so the borrower is probably $150,000 to $180,000 underwater.

Comparable houses rent for close to $1,500 per month. So the borrower is paying less than the going rent on the modified loan.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 01:30:00 PM

There is a lot of interesting data in the DataQuick report. A few key points:

2009 will be another record year for NODs.

Lenders have change policies and are trying to modify more mortgages.

2006 was a toxic lending year (probably because that was when house prices peaked or were starting to fall).

Defaults are movin' on up into the mid and high priced areas.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Notices of Default (NOD) by year through 2009¹ in California from DataQuick.

¹ 2009 estimated as total NODs to date, plus Q3 NODs (as estimate for Q4).

Clearly 2009 is on pace to break the record of 2008. I'd expect something close to 500 thousand NODs for the entire year.

From DataQuick: California Mortgage Defaults Trend Down Again

The number of mortgage default notices filed against California homeowners fell last quarter compared with the prior three-month period, the result of lenders' evolving foreclosure policies, an uncertain legislative environment and an uptick in the number of mortgages being renegotiated, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 111,689 default notices were sent out during the July-through-September period. That was down 10.3 percent from 124,562 for the prior quarter, and up 18.5 percent from 94,240 in third quarter 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

The number of recorded default notices peaked in the first quarter of this year at 135,431, although that number was inflated by deferred activity from the prior four months.

"It may well be that lenders have intentionally slowed down the pace of formal foreclosure proceedings. If so, it's not out of the goodness of their hearts. It's because they've concluded that flooding the market with cheap foreclosures in this economic environment may not be in their best financial interest. Trying to keep motivated, employed homeowners in their homes might be the most cost-efficient way to stem losses," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
...
While most foreclosure activity was still concentrated in affordable inland communities, the foreclosure problem continued to slowly migrate into more expensive areas. The state's most affordable sub-markets, which represent 25 percent of the state's housing stock, accounted for 52.2 percent of all default activity a year ago. In third-quarter 2009 it fell to 42.9 percent.
...
Although 111,689 default notices were filed last quarter, they involved 108,372 homes because some borrowers were in default on multiple loans (e.g. a primary mortgage and a line of credit). Multiple default recordings on the same home are trending down, DataQuick reported.
...
Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 50,013 during the third quarter. That was up 9.5 percent from 45,667 for the prior quarter, and down 37.1 percent from 79,511 for third-quarter 2008, which was the all-time peak.

In the last real estate cycle, Trustees Deeds peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996. The state's all-time low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005, MDA DataQuick reported.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 12:08:00 PM

Emile Brinkmann, MBA Chief Economist, testified today before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs at a hearing titled, "The State of the Nation's Housing Market." Here are some excerpts:

"... Whenever I am asked when the housing market will recover, I explain that the economy and the housing market are inextricably linked. The number of people receiving paychecks will drive the demand for houses and apartments and the recovery will begin when unemployment stops rising. ...

Edit: this is correct in terms of housing units, but it is important to note that housing investment leads the economy both into and out of a recession, and, in recent recessions, employment lags. I'd argue the recovery in housing investment has already started, but it will be a very sluggish recovery.

... Prior to the onset of this recession, the housing market was already weakened due in part to the heavy use of loans like pay option ARMs and stated income loans by borrowers for whom these loans were not designed. Together with rampant fraud by some borrowers buying multiple properties and speculating on continued price increases, this led to very high levels of construction to meet that increased demand, demand that turned out to be unsustainable. When that demand disappeared, a large number of houses were stranded without potential buyers. The resulting imbalance in supply and demand drove prices down, particularly in the most overbuilt markets like California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada - markets that had previously seen some of the nation's largest price increases.
emphasis added

Unfortunately the MBA didn't take the lead in trying to halt the spread of these products (Option ARMs and Stated Income loans).

Thus the nature of the problem has shifted. A year ago, subprime ARM loans accounted for 36 percent of foreclosures started, the largest share of any loan type despite being only 6 percent of the loans outstanding. Now prime fixed-rate loans represent the largest share of foreclosures initiated.

We're all subprime now!

Unfortunately, the consensus is that unemployment will continue to get worse through the middle of next year before it slowly begins to improve. While we have seen certain good signs like a stabilization of home prices and millions of borrowers refinancing into lower rates, we still face major challenges.

The most immediate challenge is what will happen to interest rates when the Federal Reserve terminates its program for purchasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities in March. The Federal Reserve has purchased the vast majority of MBS issued by these two companies this year and in September purchased more than 100% of the Fannie and Freddie MBS issued that month. The benefit has been that mortgage rates have been held lower than what they otherwise would have been without the purchase program, but there is growing concern over where rates may go once the Federal Reserve stops buying and what this will mean for borrowers. While the most benign estimates are for increases in the range of 20 to 30 basis points, some estimates of the potential increase in rates are several times those amounts.

My estimate is an increase of 35 bps for mortgage rates (relative to the Ten Year Treasury yield).

The extension of the Fed's MBS purchase program to March gives the Obama administration time to announce its interim and, perhaps, long-term recommendations for Fannie and Freddie in February's budget release.

All of this, however, points to the need to begin replacing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a long-term solution. MBA has been working on this problem for over a year now and recently released its plan for rebuilding the secondary market for mortgages.

MBA's plan envisions a system composed of private, non-government credit guarantor entities that would insure mortgage loans against default and securitize those mortgages for sale to investors. These entities would be well-capitalized and regulated, and would be restricted to insuring only a core set of the safest types of mortgages, and would only be allowed to hold de minimus portfolios. The resulting securities would, in turn, have a federal guarantee that would allow them to trade similar to the way Ginnie Mae securities trade today. The guarantee would not be free. The entities would pay a risk-based fee for the guarantee, with the fees building up an insurance fund that would operate similar to the bank deposit insurance fund. Any credit losses would be borne first by private equity in the entities and any risk-sharing arrangements put in place with lenders and private mortgage insurance companies. In the event one of these entities failed, the insurance fund would cover the losses. Only if the insurance fund were exhausted, would the government need to intervene.

One of the concerns is privatizing profits and socializing losses - exactly what happened with Fannie and Freddie. This proposal has some positive features - especially restricting insurance to "the safest types of mortgages". That would be prime fixed and ARM loans only, with no risk layering. Subprime would be excluded. Alt-A should disappear.

It appears - although it isn't explicitly stated - that no other entities could securtize mortgages. That would be a key.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 10:10:00 AM

Just a quick comment ...

Probably the best leading indicator for the economy is investment in housing¹.

We can use new home sales, housing starts (usually single-family starts), or residential investment (from the BEA GDP report), as indicators of housing.

We can probably also use the NAHB builder confidence index.

Those expecting a "V-shaped" or immaculate recovery - with unemployment falling sharply in 2010 - are clearly expecting single family housing starts to rebound quickly to a rate significantly above 1 million units per year.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

There are just too many excess housing units for a rapid recovery in new home sales and single family housing starts. Yes, new home inventory has declined significantly, and existing home inventory has also decreased (although still very high). But there are also a record number of vacant rental units - with the vacancy rate approaching 11% - and the housing inventory includes these units too.

Notice what is not included as a leading indicator: existing home sales.

The sale of an existing home adds a little to the economy (some commissions and fees), and sometimes some added spending on improvements. Only the improvements add to the housing stock (not commissions). And right now marginal buyers have very little to spend on improvements (see this story).

Those looking at existing home sales for economic guidance are confusing activity with accomplishment.

¹I've written about this extensively, but I'll put up another post on housing investment leading the economy soon.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 08:30:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Total housing starts were at 590 thousand (SAAR) in September, up 0.5% from the revised August rate, and up sharply from the all time record low in April of 479 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959). Starts had rebounded to 590 thousand in June, and have move sideways for four months.

Single-family starts were at 501 thousand (SAAR) in September, up 3.9% from the revised August rate, and 40 percent above the record low in January and February (357 thousand). Just like for total starts, single-family starts have been at this level for four months.

Here is the Census Bureau report on housing Permits, Starts and Completions.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 573,000. This is 1.2 percent (±1.8%)* below the revised August rate of 580,000 and is 28.9 percent (±2.2%) below the September 2008 estimate of 806,000.

Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 450,000; this is 3.0 percent (±1.0%) below the revised August figure of 464,000.

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000. This is 0.5 percent (±9.9%)* above the revised August estimate of 587,000, but is 28.2 percent (±6.7%) below the September 2008 rate of 822,000.

Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 501,000; this is 3.9 percent (±9.3%)* above the revised August figure of 482,000.

Housing Completions:
Privately-owned housing completions in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000. This is 10.2 percent (±10.4%)* below the revised August estimate of 772,000 and is 39.6 percent (±5.7%) below the September 2008 rate of 1,148,000.

Single-family housing completions in September were at a rate of 464,000; this is 8.3 percent (±14.3%)* below the revised August figure of 506,000.

Note that single-family completions of 464 thousand are below the level of single-family starts (501 thousand). This suggests residential construction employment maybe be near a bottom.

It appears that single family starts bottomed in January. However, as expected, it appears starts are now moving sideways - and will probably stay near this level until the excess existing home inventory is reduced.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 12:12:00 AM

From the National Retail Federation: Economy to Impact Two-Thirds of Families this Holiday Season, According to NRF Survey

Retailers are about to embark on the holiday season of the serious bargain hunter. According to NRF’s 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $682.74 on holiday-related shopping, a 3.2 percent drop from last year’s $705.01.

It comes as no surprise that the economy was an overriding theme throughout this year’s survey. Two-thirds of Americans (65.3%) say the economy will affect their holiday plans this year, with the majority of these consumers saying they’re adjusting by simply spending less ...

Retailers are compensating for soft sales this holiday season by cutting back on inventory. ... “In anticipation of weak demand, many retailers scaled back on inventory levels to prevent unplanned markdowns at the end of the season,” said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin ...

“While the economic climate has shown some improvement from last holiday season, retailers are not out of the woods yet,” said Phil Rist, Executive Vice President, Strategic Initiatives, BIGresearch. “With a variety of factors still up in the air, including uncertainty over job security, many Americans just aren’t buying into the talk of recovery.”

And this will mean few seasonal retail hires too.

The NRF is so depressing ...

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 08:48:00 PM

John Mckinnon at the WSJ reports: Home-Buyer Credit Is Focus of Inquiry

The Internal Revenue Service is examining more than 100,000 suspicious claims for the first-time home-buyer tax break ...

The tax credit is completely refundable, even if the homebuyer has no tax liability - and this makes it a target for fraud. From the IRS:

"[The tax credit is] fully refundable, meaning the credit will be paid out to eligible taxpayers, even if they owe no tax or the credit is more than the tax owed."

Also, the credit is separate from the closing, and the WSJ article suggests this is contributing to the "widespread" fraud.

Bonnie Speedy, national director of AARP Tax-Aide ... suggested that abuse of the home-purchase credit appeared to be widespread ...

And - not mentioned in the article - the homebuyers are required to pay back the tax credit if they do not own and live in the home for three years ... so there will probably be more fraud in the future. More IRS:

The obligation to repay the credit on a home purchased in 2009 arises only if the home ceases to be your principal residence within 36 months from the date of purchase. The full amount of the credit received becomes due on the return for the year the home ceased being your principal residence.
emphasis added

I hope these people stretching to buy - like the buyer mentioned in the previous post paying 54% of her income for her house, including multiple jobs - realize they have to pay back the entire credit if they don't own and occupy the home for three years.

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 05:21:00 PM

Scott Jagow at American Public Media MarketPlace provides an example of a recent FHA insured loan homebuyer: On the flip side...

Denise works three jobs so she can afford her new house. She makes $2470 a month but pays $1328 to service her mortgage. That means 54% of her income goes to the house, leaving her with $285 a week to live on. Doable, but tight. She’s breaking the 30% rule and then some, not to mention she’s still spending out of pocket to renovate the yard, fix the roof and paint.

Apparently 20 year old Denise bought the home for $155,000, and according to the comments, obtained an additional $28,000 on a "203K HUD supplemental loan to renovate the home" for a total of $183,000.

Not exactly up to the new proposed FSA standards of affordability!

Rolfe Winkler has a speech from David Einhorn Einhorn on gold, sovereign default, and more. Here is the pfd of the speech. I don't agree with everything he says, but he is entertaining!

Paul Kiel at Propublica writes: Four Banks in Govt’s ‘Healthy Bank’ Bailout Struggle to Survive.

The government has doled out billions to 687 banks [1] over the past year through a program meant to bolster already “healthy” banks. But an increasing number of those are troubled. Four banks in particular are foundering, including one that has acknowledged its executives cooked its books.

Paul has the details.

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 02:59:00 PM

From Bloomberg: U.S. Commercial Property Values Fall 3% in August (ht James)

The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices fell 3 percent in August from July, bringing the market’s decline to almost 41 percent since its peak in October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said in a statement today. ...

“We can’t call a bottom at this point, but it’s an encouraging sign to see the deceleration in the decline,” said Connie Petruzziello, a Moody’s analyst and co-author of the commercial property price report.
...
August was the 11th consecutive month the commercial property index fell.

The August report was based on prices for 73 properties that sold during the month and for which Moody’s has previous price records.

Here is a comparison of the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite 20 index.

Notes: Beware of the "Real" in the title - this index is not inflation adjusted - that is the name of the company (an unfortunate choice for a price index). Moody's CRE price index is a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller - but there are far fewer commercial sales - only 73 repeat sales in August - and that can impact prices.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

CRE prices only go back to December 2000.

The Case-Shiller Composite 20 residential index is in blue (with Dec 2000 set to 1.0 to line up the indexes).

This shows residential leading CRE (although we usually talk about residential investment leading CRE investment, but in this case also for prices), and this also shows that prices tend to fall faster for CRE than for residential.

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 02:21:00 PM

Excerpts posted with permission from Campbell Surveys

In September the housing market took a major turn to the upside, according to respondents to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions. Real estate agent survey respondents reported average residential property prices rose 6% from August to September ...

The reported month-to-month price increase of 6% was driven by high demand for REO –also commonly referred to as foreclosed properties--according to transaction data reported by survey respondents. ...

The average price for non-distressed properties remained nearly constant between August and September. ...

Strong demand for moderately priced REO caused time-on-market for these properties to decline markedly. In August, damaged REO stayed on the market an average of 9.4 weeks; by September, time-on-market had declined to 7.0 weeks. For move-in ready REO, time-on-market declined from 8.0 weeks in August to 5.9 weeks in September. In contrast, average time-on-market for non-distressed properties rose from 13.0 weeks in August to 14.2 weeks in September.

First–time homebuyer demand for properties continued to be strong in the month of September. First-time homebuyers accounted for 42% of home purchase transactions in September. ...

Many agents indicated an REO buying frenzy in local markets, especially California. “Entry level REO's are taken by the storm! Many multiple offers!” exclaimed a California agent. “Low inventory and high demand are resulting in 20-60 offers on most properties in the entry level to moderate price points. First-time homebuyers have difficulty competing with investors and high down-payment buyers,” reported another real estate agent located in California. “Banks and listing agents are pricing these REO's at liquidation prices to encourage a bidding war and it's working,” wrote a real estate agent located in Florida.

Despite reporting strong increases in both average prices and number of transactions, real estate agents responding to the survey gave a hint of looming problems caused by rising unemployment. For the third month in a row, the survey’s inventory index showed rising inventories of short sale properties, while inventories of REO properties were flat or declining.
emphasis added

As we've discussed before, there is a buying frenzy right now in the existing home market, especially at the low end. Unfortunately existing home sales add little to the economy (compared to new home sales). And the impact is even less than usual right now because many of the marginal buyers are using the first-time homebuyer tax credit as their downpayment, and have little additional money to spend on furniture or upgrades.

For the economy, the numbers to track are housing starts, new home sales, and residential investment - not existing home sales.

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 01:00:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

The housing market index (HMI) decreased to 18 in October from 19 in September. The record low was 8 set in January. Note that Traffic of Prospective Buyers declined sharply.

This is still very low - and this is what I've expected - a long period of builder depression.

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

This second graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the October release for the HMI and the August data for starts (September starts will be released tomorrow).

This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month. Those expecting a sharp rebound in starts are probably wrong.

Press release from the NAHB (added): Builder Confidence Slips in October

“This is the first time since November of 2008 that all three component indexes of the HMI have declined,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Clearly, builders are experiencing the effects of the expiring tax credit on their sales activity, since it would be virtually impossible at this point to complete a new home sale in time to take advantage of that buyer incentive before Nov. 30.”
...
Each of the HMI’s component indexes recorded declines in October. The component gauging current sales conditions fell one point to 17, while the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined two points to 27 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell three points to 14.

On a regional basis, the Northeast was the only part of the country to record an improvement in its HMI score, with a one-point gain to 25. Meanwhile, the Midwest and South each recorded one-point declines to 18 and the West recorded a four-point decline to 14.

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 09:55:00 AM

Bloomberg reviewed 23 recent Inspector General reports of bank failures and concluded that the FDIC "failed to enforce its own guidelines to rein in excessive commercial real estate lending" (CRE).

From Bloomberg: FDIC Failed to Limit Commercial Real-Estate Loans, Reports Show (hts Mike in Long Island, Ron at WallStreetPit)

... The FDIC’s Office of Inspector General analyzed 23 lenders taken over by regulators from August 2008 to March and found that for 20, the agency’s examiners didn’t identify the issue early enough or should have taken stronger supervisory action after recognizing the banks had dangerously high levels of the loans before they failed. ...

“It’s often we’ll see in our reports that the FDIC detected problems in the bank in a timely fashion, but in some cases forceful corrective action wasn’t required by the FDIC to be taken quickly enough,” Jon Rymer, the FDIC’s inspector general, said in a telephone interview.

This is recurring theme. The examiners in the field, for both the FDIC and the Fed, recognized problems fairly early, but the agencies failed to take aggressive action.

Here are two related posts: Inspector General: FDIC saw risks at IndyMac in 2002 and Federal Reserve Oversight and the Failure of Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast

The from a state regulator:

“We should have been more strict,” Joseph Smith, North Carolina’s bank commissioner and chairman of the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, said in a telephone interview. ...

“Had we required the reduction of CRE lending, it would have been thought of as an intrusion by regulators into the businesses of banks and to the operations of local economies,” Smith said. “Yes, it would have been the right thing to do. It would have caused a firestorm then. That might have been better than a firestorm now.”

I believe the regulators should have clamped down on CRE lending in 2006 - and the FDIC was aware of the problem. Here is a proposed interagency guidance on CRE lending from January 13, 2006.

Concentrations of CRE loans may expose institutions to unanticipated earnings and capital volatility in the event of adverse changes in the general commercial real estate market. ... The proposed guidance reinforces existing guidelines for real estate lending and provides criteria for identifying institutions with CRE loan concentrations that may warrant greater supervisory scrutiny.

The final comments from Joseph Smith provide a clue as to the real problem. The examiners in the field were finding the problems, but the regulators were failing to act because "it would cause a firestorm" and it would be "thought of as an intrusion by regulators".

by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2009 08:40:00 AM

From the FSA:

The Financial Services Authority (FSA) today sets out proposals for the major reforms required in the UK mortgage market to ensure that it works better for consumers and is sustainable for all market participants.

The proposals, published in the mortgage market review discussion paper, reflect the FSA’s changed approach to a more intrusive and interventionist style of regulation.
...
“The paper sets out the main findings of the FSA’s comprehensive analysis of the mortgage market. It clearly shows a rapid explosion in mortgage products; the emergence of high risk lending strategies which typically focused on higher risk borrowers; relaxed credit standards; and a mutual assumption by too many borrowers and lenders that the good times could not end.

“The FSA needs to ensure that firms only lend to people who can afford to pay the money back. The reforms that we have announced today will ensure that the mortgage market works better for consumers and that it is sustainable for firms.”
...
The discussion paper is out for discussion until 30 January 2010 and the FSA will be actively seeking views from consumer groups and industry. A feedback statement will be published in March. Implementation will be phased ...

•Affordability tests: the DP proposes making the lender ultimately responsible in every sale for verifying affordability. It also proposes that in each case a lender should assess the consumer’s ability to repay, i.e. calculate the free disposable income a consumer has to pay for the mortgage.

•Self-certification: the DP proposes requiring verification of income for all mortgage applications;

• Toxic combinations: the DP discusses whether a type of product regulation likely to be more effective in protecting consumers would be to prohibit loans to borrowers that exhibit certain multiple high-risk characteristics, such as prohibiting loans to credit-impaired borrowers that are also at high loan-to-income.

• Arrears: the FSA will publish specific proposals in January to toughen up rules on arrears handling as well as banning administration charges where a borrower is adhering to an arrangement to repay arrears; and prohibiting the charging of early redemption charges on arrears fees.

• Requiring all mortgage advisers to be personally accountable to the FSA; DP proposes extending the Approved Persons regime to mortgage advisers who deal with consumers and to advisers and/or arrangers who are responsible for overseeing compliance ...
emphasis added

They are going to ban stated income loans, limit risk layering (a key problem), limit arrears charges, hold mortgage lenders personally accountable, and require affordability tests.

This is a good model for the U.S.

For amusement, here is The Times headline: Homebuyers face questions on alcohol spending

Homebuyers could be forced to provide detailed information about the amount of money they spend on alcohol each month to qualify for a new mortgage under a new clampdown on reckless lending. ... It said lenders should delve deeper into homebuyers' personal spending including the amount they spend on alcohol and tobacco.

by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2009 09:23:00 PM

Some long posts earlier, so here is a summary:

A guest post from albrt. He reviews the Massachusetts court ruling: U.S. Bank v. Ibanez. This ruling will slow down the process in Massachusetts, but as albrt noted: "Judge Long invalidated the foreclosures, not the mortgages. In all likelihood, the holders of the mortgages will be able to go back and foreclose eventually, but they will spend some additional time and money doing it."

A look at Q3 GDP: Inventory Restocking and Q3 GDP. For other views on Q3, see: Econbrowser's No L and Krugman's A smidgen of optimism

From Roger Vincent at the LA Times: Southern California's vast desolation indoors

... Almost 51 million square feet of office space in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire is now empty -- more than 17% of the total.

And the Telegraph reports on the end of stated income loans in the U.K.: Era of cheap mortgages is over, British homeowners warned

[T]he Financial Services Authority ... plans to tighten up regulation and crack down on risky lending ...

The FSA's Mortgage Market Review, published tomorrow, will focus on the third of the market considered "higher risk". ... Among the report's proposals, the financial regulator is expected to call for an end to self-certification mortgages and rule that responsibility for income verification be transferred from mortgage brokers to lenders.

The HUD Inspector General issued a report the FHA single-family lender approval process. The report found the "FHA's lender application process not adequate to ensure that all of its lender approval requirements were met" (here is the report).

The Problem Bank List (Unofficial) increased significantly last week to 479 banks, with $319 billion in assets. Only one bank failed -San Joaquin Bank, Bakersfield, California - bringing the total FDIC insured bank failures to 99 in 2009.

Here are the stats for LA Area Port Traffic in September. Loaded inbound traffic was 17.4% below September 2008, but loaded outbound traffic was only 8.6% below September 2008. Exports are doing better than imports.

This will be another busy week with two key housing reports: Housing starts on Tuesday, and Existing home sales on Friday. I expect single family starts to be about the same as last month (the number to watch), and existing home sales to be higher than last month (based on regional reports).