by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2025 07:54:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: MMortgage Rates Start The Week Near Recent Highs

Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days. This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the past 2.5 weeks have been very narrow and today's rates are merely at the upper edge of that range (i.e. not much different than the recent lows).
...
More extreme rate movement remains on hold until the government shutdown ends, thus allowing the publication of the big-ticket economic reports that have the biggest impacts on rates. [30 year fixed 6.38%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of September 16-17, 2025

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2025 01:22:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.8% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent dipped by 0.4% in September, and now stands at $1,394. This was the second consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’ve now entered the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we’ll continue to see further modest rent declines through the remainder of the year.

Realtor.com: 25th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

In August 2025, the U.S. median rent recorded its 25th consecutive year-over-year decline. Rent for 0–2 bedroom properties across the 50 largest metropolitan areas dropped by 2.2% compared to the previous year, with the median asking rent at $1,713—just $5 lower than the prior month.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2025 09:52:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

House Prices Up 1.2% Year-over-year

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 1.2% year-over-year in September, up from 1.0% YoY in August.

• Annual home price growth re-accelerated in early September following eight consecutive months of slowing ‒ rising to +1.2% from a revised +1.0% in August – as falling inventory met improved affordability from easing mortgage rates

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose by +0.17% in the month, equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of +2.1%, suggesting the annual home price growth rate may tick modestly higher in coming months

• The bulk of the firming occurred among single family residences, which are up +1.5% from the same time last year, an increase from +1.3% in August

• The condo market remains soft, with prices down -1.8% from the same time last year, a modest improvement from -1.9% in August

• Only 20% of markets saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, the fewest in nine months and down from 55% just two months prior

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory increased 0.2% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 17.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 18.0%), and down 9.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.6%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 3rd, inventory was at 864 thousand (7-day average), compared to 863 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2025 06:20:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 5, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 6 and DOW futures are up 46 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $61.73 per barrel and Brent at $65.47 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $79 - so WTI oil prices are down about 17% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.14 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.05 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2025 08:21:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), combines seasonally adjusted rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain. The index fell 0.8% in September 2025 from August 2025, its fifth decline in the past six months. Still, the index is only 1.0% below its level from a year earlier, indicating that recent weakness reflects a gradual adjustment rather than a sharp downturn.
emphasis added

Rail traffic volumes continue to adjust to evolving market conditions. In September 2025, total U.S. rail carloads fell 1.2% year-over-year, with 12 of the 20 major carload categories tracked by the AAR posting declines.
...
U.S. intermodal rail shipments, which are closely tied to consumer demand and international trade, fell 1.3% in September 2025 from September 2024.

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year

• Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

• Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales

• Lawler: NAR “Fixes” Median Sales Price for July

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the August Trade Deficit (Will not be released if government shutdown).

----- Monday, October 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, October 7th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of September 16-17, 2025

----- Wednesday, October 8th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, October 9th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. 

----- Friday, October 10th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 01:15:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.8% q/q saar from 2.6% after 2Q GDP came in at 3.8% in the third estimate. [October 3rd estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting stronger consumer spending in August and a more favorable monthly path between Q2 and Q3 than we had previously assumed. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate now stands at +1.9%. [September 26th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on October 1, down from 3.9 percent on September 26. After this morning’s release from the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent was partially offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent. The US Census Bureau construction spending report was not released this morning because of the government shutdown. We plan on maintaining the release schedule throughout the shutdown but will skip updates if there are no monthly data releases since the last GDPNow update. [October 1st estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.0%, down from 52.0% last month. The employment index increased to 47.2%, up from 46.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50% September 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In September, the Services PMI® registered an unchanged reading of 50 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the August figure of 52 percent. The Business Activity Index moved into contraction territory in September, registering 49.9 percent, 5.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 55 percent recorded in August. This is the first time the index has entered contraction territory since May 2020. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in September, with a reading of 50.4 percent, down 5.6 percent from August’s figure of 56 percent. The Employment Index remained in contraction territory for the fourth month in a row and the fifth time in the last six months; the reading of 47.2 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.5 percent recorded in August.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.6 percent, 2.3 percentage points higher than the 50.3 percent recorded in August and its highest reading since February (53.4 percent). This is the 10th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 69.4 percent in September, a 0.2-percentage point increase from August’s reading of 69.2 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 10 straight months, its longest such streak since 30 consecutive readings above 60 percent from October 2020 to March 2023.
emphasis added

Employment was in contraction for the 4th consecutive month, and prices paid was high.