by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2025 06:20:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 5, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 6 and DOW futures are up 46 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $61.73 per barrel and Brent at $65.47 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $79 - so WTI oil prices are down about 17% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.14 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.05 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2025 08:21:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), combines seasonally adjusted rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain. The index fell 0.8% in September 2025 from August 2025, its fifth decline in the past six months. Still, the index is only 1.0% below its level from a year earlier, indicating that recent weakness reflects a gradual adjustment rather than a sharp downturn.
emphasis added

Rail traffic volumes continue to adjust to evolving market conditions. In September 2025, total U.S. rail carloads fell 1.2% year-over-year, with 12 of the 20 major carload categories tracked by the AAR posting declines.
...
U.S. intermodal rail shipments, which are closely tied to consumer demand and international trade, fell 1.3% in September 2025 from September 2024.

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year

• Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

• Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales

• Lawler: NAR “Fixes” Median Sales Price for July

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the August Trade Deficit (Will not be released if government shutdown).

----- Monday, October 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, October 7th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of September 16-17, 2025

----- Wednesday, October 8th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, October 9th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. 

----- Friday, October 10th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 01:15:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.8% q/q saar from 2.6% after 2Q GDP came in at 3.8% in the third estimate. [October 3rd estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting stronger consumer spending in August and a more favorable monthly path between Q2 and Q3 than we had previously assumed. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate now stands at +1.9%. [September 26th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on October 1, down from 3.9 percent on September 26. After this morning’s release from the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent was partially offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent. The US Census Bureau construction spending report was not released this morning because of the government shutdown. We plan on maintaining the release schedule throughout the shutdown but will skip updates if there are no monthly data releases since the last GDPNow update. [October 1st estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.0%, down from 52.0% last month. The employment index increased to 47.2%, up from 46.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50% September 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® reading of 50 percent was at the breakeven point between expansion and contraction for the first time since January 2010.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In September, the Services PMI® registered an unchanged reading of 50 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the August figure of 52 percent. The Business Activity Index moved into contraction territory in September, registering 49.9 percent, 5.1 percentage points lower than the reading of 55 percent recorded in August. This is the first time the index has entered contraction territory since May 2020. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in September, with a reading of 50.4 percent, down 5.6 percent from August’s figure of 56 percent. The Employment Index remained in contraction territory for the fourth month in a row and the fifth time in the last six months; the reading of 47.2 percent is 0.7 percentage point higher than the 46.5 percent recorded in August.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.6 percent, 2.3 percentage points higher than the 50.3 percent recorded in August and its highest reading since February (53.4 percent). This is the 10th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 69.4 percent in September, a 0.2-percentage point increase from August’s reading of 69.2 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 10 straight months, its longest such streak since 30 consecutive readings above 60 percent from October 2020 to March 2023.
emphasis added

Employment was in contraction for the 4th consecutive month, and prices paid was high.

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 08:01:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 17.0% YoY, but still down 13.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Sept. 27

• Active inventory climbed 16.2% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 16.2% year over year, the easing compared to last week for the 15th straight time. Nevertheless, last week was the 99th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 22nd week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—down 0.5% year over year

New listings fell 0.5% last week compared with the same period last year, marking just the third weekly decline since April. This softening is reflected in the September Monthly Housing Report data, where newly listed homes fell 1.2% year over year. The decline in new listings is in part behind the slowdown in national inventory gains over the past few months, as sellers retreat from the market.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price was flat compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, we saw the price per square foot fell 0.5% year over year for the fourth consecutive week. The price per square foot had been growing steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and stalled out this metric, suggesting underlying home values are starting to soften—at least in national aggregates.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 08:13:00 PM

NOTE: The employment report will not be released due to the government shutdown.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• At 10:00 AM,: the ISM Services Index for September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 01:41:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure!

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 27 September

Impacted by the Rosh Hashanah holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 27 September. ...

21-27 September 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.6% (-4.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$166.48 (-2.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.15 (-6.6%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase during the Fall travel period.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 10:57:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the July Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.8% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.2% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $444,000 today adjusted for inflation (48% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.7% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 2.9% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in July.

It has now been 38 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!