by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2020 04:43:00 PM

Tests per day is a key number to track (along with actual cases and, sadly, deaths). But total tests were a key for South Korea slowing the spread of COVID-19. South Korea has been conducting 15,000 tests per day with a 51 million population, so the US needs to test around 100,000 per day.

Note: NYC and LA have stopped testing mild cases due to resource constraints. Hopefully testing will continue to improve, and we can test more people - this is important for test-and-trace.

The US conducted 44,186 tests in the last 24 hours.  That is progress.

Note: About 14% of tests were positive in the most recent report (some are still pending).

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.   Some states could do a better job of reporting the number of tests - so this is probably low.

Testing is improving, but needs to more than double from here (maybe three times this much to be sufficient for test-and-trace).

Test. Test. Test. But protect our healthcare workers first!

by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2020 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are the third estimate of Q4 GDP, February New Home Sales and February Personal Income and Outlays.

For manufacturing, the March Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, Mar 23rd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, Mar 24th -----
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 750 thousand SAAR, down from 764 thousand in January.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March.

----- Wednesday, Mar 25th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.9% decrease in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for January. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

----- Thursday, Mar 26th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a huge number of initial claims, up from 281 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2019 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q4, the same as the second estimate of 2.1%.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for March.

----- Friday, Mar 27th -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 94.0.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly), February 2020

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2020 04:35:00 PM

Tests per day is a key number to track (along with actual cases and, sadly, deaths). But total tests were a key for South Korea slowing the spread of COVID-19. South Korea has been conducting 15,000 tests per day with a 51 million population, so the US needs to test around 100,000 per day.

The US conducted 34,644 tests in the last 24 hours.  That is progress.

Note: About 12% of tests were positive in the most recent report (some are still pending).

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.   Some states could do a better job of reporting the number of tests - so this is probably low.

Testing it getting better, but needs to triple from here.

I'll be changing the y-axis scale soon.

Test. Test. Test.

Stay Healthy!

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2020 02:39:00 PM

It appears that sometime next week the US will be conducting 70,000+ COVID-19 tests per day.

Currently the priority is to test people with symptoms, those with close contact to an infected person, healthcare providers and first responders. That should remain our priority until we have excess testing capacity above those needs.

However we must plan ahead.  We need a plan in place to dramatically expand tracking and surveillance testing - Test and Trace - and we need to look for the asymptomatic carriers. Finding and quarantining the asymptomatic carriers is key to getting the economy back on track (and not just slowing the spread, but preventing another surge in cases).

The government should be training thousands of trackers right now to do this job safely. And the government needs to quarantine (probably in their home) anyone testing positive.  Note: the priority on personal protective equipment (PPE) is the healthcare workers. South Korea calls these quarantined people twice a day until they test negative twice.

Everyone can do their part.   Stay at home if you can, and minimize contact with other people.   Everyone should keep track of where they go, and who they talk with, over the next few weeks. That way, if someone becomes sick with COVID-19 they can tell the trackers who to test.

We can't test everyone.  South Korea is testing the equivalent of about 100,000 people per day and that is only a small fraction of their 50 million total population. We have to be smart in who we test, and that is why tracking is important.

I'd like someone to be named head of tracking, and provide daily updates on the number of surveillance tests being performed, and the number of people under quarantine.   This should happen NOW, so we are ready when excess testing is finally available.

Soon the US will have 50,000+ cases and more.   There are two ways to stop the spread - shutting down (shelter in place) and a strong Test and Trace program.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2020 01:28:00 PM

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.77 million in February

A few key points:

1) This is pre-crisis data. Sales will decline sharply in March and April.

2) Existing home sales were up 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) in February.

2) Inventory is very low, and was down 9.8% year-over-year (YoY) in February. Inventory will probably stay low in March as people wait to list their homes.

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales will probably be down sharply year-over-year in March and April.

Note that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined.

The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) by month (Red dashes are 2020), and the minimum and maximum for 2005 through 2019.

Sales NSA in February (335,000) were the highest for January since 2017.

Note that sales have been in the middle of the range recently - not absurdly high like in 2005, and not depressed like in 2010 and 2011.

Overall this was a solid report.   Now, with the pandemic, sales will decline sharply.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2020 11:25:00 AM

Seasonal flu activity is slowing, and that will help with the rapidly increasing COVID-19 pandemic.

From the CDC: Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report

Laboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories continued to decrease; however, influenza-like illness activity increased. Influenza severity indicators remain moderate to low overall, but hospitalization rates differ by age group, with high rates among children and young adults.
…
Nationally, the percent of specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease while ILI activity increased for the second week in a row after declining for three weeks. Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, more people may be seeking care for respiratory illness than usual at this time.

Note that ILI (influenza-like illness) activity is increasing due to COVID-19.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the CDC shows the number of positive specimens, and the percent of tests positive.

Social distancing will help lower flu activity too.  And fewer patients with the flu is a positive for healthcare workers.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2020 10:10:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Jump 6.5% in February

Existing-home sales climbed substantially in February after a slight decline in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Of the four major regions, only the Northeast reported a drop in sales, while other areas saw increases, including sizable sales gains in the West.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 6.5% from January to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in February. Additionally, for the eighth straight month, overall sales greatly increased year-over-year, up 7.2% from a year ago (5.38 million in February 2019)..
...
Total housing inventory at the end of February totaled 1.47 million units, up 5.0% from January, but down 9.8% from one year ago (1.63 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, equal to the supply recorded in January and down from the 3.6-month figure recorded in February 2019.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in February (5.77 million SAAR) were up 6.5% from last month, and were 7.2% above the February 2019 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.47 million in February from 1.40 million in January.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was down 9.8% year-over-year in February compared to February 2019.

Months of supply was unchanged at 3.1 months in February.

This was above the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later …

Note: These number are pre-crisis, and everything will change in the March and April numbers.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2020 07:45:00 PM

This report is for February, and sales were probably solid. However sales will slow down in March, and are likely to really collapse in April.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.50 million SAAR, up from 5.46 million.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR will report sales of 5.58 million.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2020 04:36:00 PM

Tests per day is a key number to track (along with actual cases and, sadly, deaths). But total tests were a key for South Korea slowing the spread of COVID-19. South Korea has been conducting 15,000 tests per day with about one-fifth of the US population, so the US needs to test 70,000 to 100,000 per day.

The US conducted 27,450 tests in the last 24 hours.  That is progress.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.   Some states could do a better job of reporting the number of tests - so this is probably low.

Testing it getting better, but needs to at least triple from here.

Hopefully I'll be changing the y-axis scale soon.

Test. Test. Test.

Stay Healthy!

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2020 01:11:00 PM

There are some sectors that will be hit hard over the next several months: hotels, airlines, restaurants, movie theaters, sporting events, and convention centers.   People will probably avoid these places as part of social distancing.

Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US, the states of Washington and New York, and a few impacted cities (Seattle, San Francisco, and Boston).

This data is updated through March 18, 2020.

The US was off 91% YoY as of yesterday.

San Francisco, Boston and Seattle are off 100%. Going forward, restaurants have close in most states (except take out and pick up)

The laggards are Oklahoma (off 70%), Hawaii (off 71%) and Alabama (off 78%).

When the crisis is ending, I'll post this data again.