by Calculated Risk on 8/31/2025 09:21:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Aug. 23

• Active inventory climbed 20.3% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 20.3% year over year, easing slightly compared to the previous week for the 10th consecutive week. Nevertheless, last week was the 94th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were roughly 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 17th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 2.7% year over year

New listings rose 2.7% last week compared with the same period last year, a lower rate compared to the previous week, as the number of new listings remains below the spring and early summer norm. Homeowners are showing less urgency to list, as rising inventory and cautious buyer activity continue to temper the market.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price has been flat compared to the same week in 2024 for three weeks in a row. Meanwhile, the median list price per square foot, which accounts for changes in home size, also remained flat year over year, pausing its nearly two-year growth streak. The flattened trends in both price measurements suggest that we are entering a period of pricing stability, as buyers are squeezed by high mortgage rates and sellers are slow to adjust expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 8/30/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June

• New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in July

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.5% Below 2022 Peak

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July and a Comment on July Sales from Tom Lawler

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/30/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing index, August auto sales, and Trade Deficit for July.

----- Monday, September 1st -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

----- Tuesday, September 2nd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.6, up from 48.0 in July.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending.

All Day: Light vehicle sales for August.

The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.1 million SAAR in July, down from 16.4 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

----- Wednesday, September 3rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in June to 7.44 million from 7.71 million in May.

The number of job openings (black) were unchanged year-over-year and Quits were down 4% year-over-year.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, September 4th -----
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 72,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from 104,000 in July.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 232 thousand from 229 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $64.2 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $60.2 Billion the previous month.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for August.

----- Friday, September 5th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for 78,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.3%.

There were 73,000 jobs added in July, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 02:20:00 PM

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting the wider-than-expected goods trade deficit. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.6%. [August 29th estimate]
emphasis added

And from the Atlanta Fed:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.2 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 6.1 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.36 percentage points to 0.59 percentage points. [August 29th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 11:13:00 AM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 23 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 August. ...

17-23 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.4% (-1.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$155.09 (-0.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$101.38 (-1.3%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until the Fall travel period.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 09:24:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through July 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 3.7% year-over-year in July, down from 3.8% in June, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 4.0% YoY in July, down from 4.1% in June and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. 

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 2.6%
Core PCE Prices: 3.0%
Core minus Housing: 2.9%

by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025

Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $108.9 billion (0.5 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $110.9 billion in July. Personal saving was $985.6 billion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.4 percent.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for July increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for July increased 2.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The July PCE price index increased 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 2.6 percent YoY in June.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.9 percent YoY, up from 2.8 percent in June.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income and PCE were at expectations.

Inflation was at expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 07:47:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.9% YoY.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August).

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 04:48:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in July

Excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in July was 0.55%, unchanged from 0.55% June. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.51% in July 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in July was 0.53%, unchanged from 0.53% in June. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.49% in July 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 12:20:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.5% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the June Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10.0% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.4% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $443,000 today adjusted for inflation (48% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.5% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 2.7% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in June.

It has now been 37 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 0.4% Decrease in July

Pending home sales decreased by 0.4% in July from the prior month and rose 0.7% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report. ...

Month-Over-Month
0.4% decrease in pending home sales
Declines in the Midwest and Northeast; essentially flat in the South; gains in the West

Year-Over-Year
0.7% increase in pending home sales
Increase in Midwest and South; decline in Northeast and West
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in August and September.

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 08:35:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.

Real GDP was revised up 0.3 percentage point from the advance estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and an upward revision to imports.
emphasis added

Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 1.4% to 1.6%. Residential investment was revised down from -4.6% to -4.7%.

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 235,000 to 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 226,250 to 226,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 228,500.

The previous week was revised down.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2025 07:53:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 236 thousand from 235 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the advance estimate.

• At 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for July.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in this index.

• At 11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for August. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August.

by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2025 01:16:00 PM

Two weeks ago I wrote The Next Financial Crisis. I noted:

The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system.

Currently the most obvious non-regulated area of finance is cryptocurrency. And that leaves us with two choices to prevent this "financial rat poison" from leading to another financial crisis:

1. Keep crypto out of the financial system, or

2. Regulate crypto.

Keeping crypto out of the financial system could range from banning it outright, to just prohibiting financial institutions from holding or lending against crypto holdings (including mortgage lending). Unfortunately, the current administration has embraced crypto.

Regulation is the alternative. If crypto is an "asset", then it should be registered with the SEC (with quarterly filings). If it is a currency, the issuer should also be required to register with the SEC and provide quarterly updates on the amount in circulation, the mechanics of the scheme, and list all the backing assets. Then lenders could be allowed to the lend up to a percent of the backing assets.

For example, for Bitcoin, the original issuer should file quarterly with the SEC. If the backing assets amount to $0.01 per coin (just a guess), then lenders could lend up to a percentage of $0.01 for each Bitcoin.

These are the two choices to avoid a financial crisis.  

by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2025 10:00:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July and a Comment on July Sales from Tom Lawler

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in July.

There were several key stories for July:

• Sales NSA are down YoY through July, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 2 1/2 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for July since 2016).

• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026)

Sales at 4.01 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were slightly above the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of July in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In July, sales in these markets were down 0.6% YoY NSA. Last month, in June, these same markets were also up 4.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in July were down 0.5% YoY NSA, so this sample is very close.

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the NSA data.
...
More local data coming in September for activity in August!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 22, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 19 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates inched higher for the second straight week, with the 30-year fixed-rate up to 6.69 percent. While this was not a significant increase, it was enough to cause a pullback in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in over a month, up 2 percent, and the average loan size increased to its highest level in two months at $433,400. Prospective buyers appear to be less sensitive to rates at these levels and are more active, bolstered by more inventory and cooling home-price growth in many parts of the country.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.69 percent from 6.68 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 25% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased after picking up a little recently with lower mortgage rates.

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2025 07:54:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2025 02:01:00 PM

Another update ... a few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.  This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.

3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through June 2025). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.  

The peak MoM increase in NSA prices this year was the smallest since 2008!

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.   

The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2025 09:53:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices). April closing prices include some contracts signed in February, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.26% (a -3.1% annual rate). This was the fourth consecutive MoM decrease.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in just 3 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 9.0% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 4.4% from the peak, and Denver down 3.7%.

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in June 2025

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.9% annual gain for June, down from a 2.3% rise in the previous month. The 10 City Composite increased 2.6%, down from a 3.4% rise in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 2.1%, down from a 2.8% increase in the previous month.

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a slight upward trend, rising 0.1%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted drops of -0.1% and -0.04%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite Index posted a -0.1% decrease and the 20-City Composite Index fell -0.3%.
...
"June's results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year—the slowest pace since the summer of 2023," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "What makes this deceleration particularly noteworthy is the underlying pattern: The modest 1.9% annual gain masks significant volatility, with the first half of the period showing declining prices (-0.6%) that were more than offset by a 2.5% surge in the most recent six months, suggesting the housing market experienced a meaningful inflection point around the start of 2025.

"The geographic divergence has become the story's defining characteristic. New York's 7.0% annual gain stands as a stark outlier, leading all markets by a wide margin, followed by Chicago (6.1%) and Cleveland (4.5%). This represents a complete reversal of pandemic-era patterns, where traditional industrial centers now outpace former darlings like Phoenix (-0.1%), Tampa (-2.4%), and Dallas (-1.0%). Tampa's decline marks the worst performance among all tracked metros, while several Western markets including San Diego (-0.6%) and San Francisco (-2.0%) have joined the negative column—a remarkable transformation from their earlier boom years.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was down 0.1% in June (SA).  The Composite 20 index was down 0.3% (SA) in June.

The National index was down 0.3% (SA) in June.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.6% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 1.9% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 07:49:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher From Long-Term Lows

After last week's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, rates fell to their lowest levels since October 3rd, 2024, narrowly surpassing the recent long-term low seen on August 13th. Powell tacitly suggested a stronger possibility of a September Fed rate cut due to growing concerns about the labor market.

Now today, the market correctly mildly back in the other direction. The average lender's conventional 30yr fixed rates moved back up ever-so-slightly (roughly 0.02%), but remain essentially in line with 10-month lows. [30 year fixed 6.54%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for a 4.0% decrease in orders.

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June. The National index was up 2.3% in May and is expected to slower further in June.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for June. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 01:46:00 PM

From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ease in July as Foreclosure Activity Edges Higher

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released its July 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. The data shows that U.S. mortgage performance remains remarkably strong compared to pre-pandemic norms, marked by delinquencies declining on an annual basis.

“If you are looking for signs of a faltering economy, you won’t find them in July’s mortgage performance data,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “New delinquency inflows were down -13% from June and -5% from the same time last year, with the national delinquency rate improving on an annual basis for the second straight month, breaking what had been a 13-month streak of consecutive increases.”

Key takeaways from the ICE First Look include:

• National delinquency rate: The delinquency rate fell by eight basis points (bps) in July to 3.27%, a 9-basis-point improvement year over year (YoY) and still 58 basis points below its 2019 levels.

• Serious delinquencies: Loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure held steady overall. Also, while serious delinquencies are up 30,000 YoY, it is the smallest annual increase since November, as the impacts from recent wildfires and last year’s hurricanes continue to fade.

• FHA delinquencies: FHA loans remain the primary driver of stress in the market. While FHA delinquencies ticked down by 5 basis points in July, they are still 15 basis points above year-ago levels and now account for the majority (52%) of serious delinquencies nationwide.

• Foreclosure activity: Foreclosure inventory rose 10% YoY, with starts increasing annually for eight straight months and foreclosure sales up in each of the past five months. Even so, the national foreclosure rate remains 35% below pre-pandemic norms.

• Prepayment activity: Prepayments edged up slightly to 0.67% in July on a modest improvement in rates and are up more than 12% from a year ago.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 10:44:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July

Brief excerpt:

The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 652 thousand. The previous three months were revised up.
...
The next graph shows new home sales for 2024 and 2025 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in July 2025 were down 8.2% from July 2024.

New home sales, seasonally adjusted, have been down year-over-year for 7 consecutive months.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 652 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up.

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply was unchanged in July at 9.2 months from 9.2 months in June.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July 2025 was 499,000. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 estimate of 502,000, and is 7.3 percent above the July 2024 estimate of 465,000.

This represents a supply of 9.2 months at the current sales rate. The months' supply is virtually unchanged from the June 2025 estimate of 9.2 months, and is 16.5 percent above the July 2024 estimate of 7.9 months."

Sales were above expectations of 630 thousand SAAR and sales for the three previous months were revised up. I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.1% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 37.9% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 22% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 was a larger than normal increase in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 22.2% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 23.2%), and down 9.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.9%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, and it appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of August 22nd, inventory was at 861 thousand (7-day average), compared to 860 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2025 06:20:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 24, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 630 thousand SAAR, up from 627 thousand in June.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $63.74 per barrel and Brent at $67.77 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $76, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil prices are down about 16% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.13 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.31 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.18 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2025 08:21:00 AM

From J.D. Power: August New-Vehicle Sales Climb 8.2% as Consumer Spending Reaches Record $54.6 Billion; EV Share Hits All-Time High Brief excerpt:

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.1 million units, up 1.0 million units from August 2024.
...
“August new-vehicle sales are expected to climb 8.2% from a year ago, including a 7.8% increase in retail volume. A strong result, although the results should be viewed in the context of several unusual factors that are distorting typical monthly sales trends.

“First, federal credits of up to $7,500 on EVs will expire on Sept. 30, prompting many EV shoppers to accelerate purchases that otherwise would have occurred later this year. As a result, EV retail share in August is expected to reach an all-time high of 12.0%, compared with 9.5% a year ago.

“Second, Labor Day lands in the August sales reporting period this year. The Labor Day weekend is typically one of the highest sales volume weekends of the year, powered by elevated manufacturer promotional activity and elevated discounts. This year, manufacturers have kept incentives restrained due to tariffs. Normally, incentives as a percentage of MSRP increase by about half a point from January through late summer, but this year they’ve slipped to 6.2% in August from 6.3% in January, underscoring the effect of tariff-related cost pressures.

“Third, lease returns remain at historically low levels following the reduced leasing activity during the 2022 supply shortages. With fewer lease customers cycling back into the market, new-vehicle sales are facing added pressure compared with typical seasonal patterns.

“Finally, from a total sales perspective, fleet deliveries are expected to reach 199,854 units in August, up 11.2% primarily due to the low baseline recorded in August 2024. Fleet volume is forecast to represent 13.5% of total light-vehicle sales, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year over year.

“In sum, August’s retail sales results point to solid new vehicle demand. The results are unquestionably inflated by shoppers accelerating their electric vehicle purchases to take advantage of Federal EV credits—but the sales pace for non-EVs remains robust, especially given the modest discounts available on those vehicles.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and J.D. Power's forecast for August (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the J.D. Power forecast of 16.1 million SAAR would be down 1.9% from last month, and up 6.4% from a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 8/23/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.01 million SAAR in July; Up 0.8% YoY

• Housing Starts Increased to 1.428 million Annual Rate in July

• California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/23/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key indicators this week include July New Home Sales, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for July, and Case-Shiller house prices for June.

----- Monday, August 25th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 630 thousand SAAR, up from 627 thousand in June.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

----- Tuesday, August 26th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for a 4.0% decrease in orders.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 2.3% in May and is expected to slower further in June.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

----- Wednesday, August 27th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, August 28th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 236 thousand from 235 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the advance estimate.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for July.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in this index.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for August. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August.

----- Friday, August 29th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.9% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August).

by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2025 02:21:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for July 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in eight states, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 66. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in five states, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 66. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.5 percent over the past three months and 0.1 percent in July.
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. 

This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In July, 39 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2025 12:24:00 PM

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.3%. We left our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.1%. [August 21st estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on August 19, down from 2.5 percent on August 15. After this morning’s housing starts release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 1.1 percent to -5.9 percent. [August 19th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2025 10:00:00 AM

From Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole: Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review. Excerpts:

When I appeared at this podium one year ago, the economy was at an inflection point. Our policy rate had stood at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent for more than a year. That restrictive policy stance was appropriate to help bring down inflation and to foster a sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply. Inflation had moved much closer to our objective, and the labor market had cooled from its formerly overheated state. Upside risks to inflation had diminished. But the unemployment rate had increased by almost a full percentage point, a development that historically has not occurred outside of recessions.1 Over the subsequent three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, we recalibrated our policy stance, setting the stage for the labor market to remain in balance near maximum employment over the past year.

This year, the economy has faced new challenges. Significantly higher tariffs across our trading partners are remaking the global trading system. Tighter immigration policy has led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth. Over the longer run, changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies may also have important implications for economic growth and productivity. There is significant uncertainty about where all of these polices will eventually settle and what their lasting effects on the economy will be.

Changes in trade and immigration policies are affecting both demand and supply. In this environment, distinguishing cyclical developments from trend, or structural, developments is difficult. This distinction is critical because monetary policy can work to stabilize cyclical fluctuations but can do little to alter structural changes.

The labor market is a case in point. The July employment report released earlier this month showed that payroll job growth slowed to an average pace of only 35,000 per month over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month during 2024 (figure 2).2 This slowdown is much larger than assessed just a month ago, as the earlier figures for May and June were revised down substantially.3 But it does not appear that the slowdown in job growth has opened up a large margin of slack in the labor market—an outcome we want to avoid. The unemployment rate, while edging up in July, stands at a historically low level of 4.2 percent and has been broadly stable over the past year. Other indicators of labor market conditions are also little changed or have softened only modestly, including quits, layoffs, the ratio of vacancies to unemployment, and nominal wage growth. Labor supply has softened in line with demand, sharply lowering the "breakeven" rate of job creation needed to hold the unemployment rate constant. Indeed, labor force growth has slowed considerably this year with the sharp falloff in immigration, and the labor force participation rate has edged down in recent months.

Overall, while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.

At the same time, GDP growth has slowed notably in the first half of this year to a pace of 1.2 percent, roughly half the 2.5 percent pace in 2024 (figure 3). The decline in growth has largely reflected a slowdown in consumer spending. As with the labor market, some of the slowing in GDP likely reflects slower growth of supply or potential output.

Turning to inflation, higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods. Estimates based on the latest available data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending in July. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.9 percent, above their level a year ago. Within core, prices of goods increased 1.1 percent over the past 12 months, a notable shift from the modest decline seen over the course of 2024. In contrast, housing services inflation remains on a downward trend, and nonhousing services inflation is still running at a level a bit above what has been historically consistent with 2 percent inflation (figure 4).

The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts. The question that matters for monetary policy is whether these price increases are likely to materially raise the risk of an ongoing inflation problem. A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level. Of course, "one-time" does not mean "all at once." It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks. Moreover, tariff rates continue to evolve, potentially prolonging the adjustment process.

It is also possible, however, that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation dynamic, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed. One possibility is that workers, who see their real incomes decline because of higher prices, demand and get higher wages from employers, setting off adverse wage–price dynamics. Given that the labor market is not particularly tight and faces increasing downside risks, that outcome does not seem likely.

Another possibility is that inflation expectations could move up, dragging actual inflation with them. Inflation has been above our target for more than four years and remains a prominent concern for households and businesses. Measures of longer-term inflation expectations, however, as reflected in market- and survey-based measures, appear to remain well anchored and consistent with our longer-run inflation objective of 2 percent.

Of course, we cannot take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Come what may, we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem.

Putting the pieces together, what are the implications for monetary policy? In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. When our goals are in tension like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate. Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago, and the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.

Monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC members will make these decisions, based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks. We will never deviate from that approach.

by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2025 08:29:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Aug. 16

• Active inventory climbed 20.9% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 20.9% year over year, easing slightly compared with the previous week for the ninth consecutive week. Nevertheless, last week was the 93rd consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were roughly 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 16th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 4.9% year over year

New listings rose 4.9% last week compared with the same period last year, a lower rate compared with the previous week, as the number of new listings remains below the spring and early summer norm. Homeowners are showing less urgency to list, as rising inventory and cautious buyer activity continue to temper the market.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price was flat compared with the same week in 2024. The median list price per square foot, which accounts for changes in home size, rose 0.1% year over year, extending its nearly two-year growth streak, though this represents the slowest growth rate over that period.

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 08:12:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook and Framework Review, At the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 02:11:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 August. ...

10-16 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 66.3% (-0.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$157.51 (+0.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$104.50 (-0.5%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until the Fall travel period.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 10:50:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.01 million SAAR in July; Up 0.8% YoY

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

• $422,400: Median existing-home price for all housing types, up 0.2% from one year ago ($421,400) – the 25th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% for this cycle in May 2021 and bottomed at -3.0% in May 2023. Prices are now up 0.2% YoY.

On a month-over-month basis, median prices decreased 2.4% from the peak in June. This is more than the normal seasonal decrease in the median price for July. Typically, the NAR median price increases in the Spring, and tends to peak seasonally in the June report. The median price will likely decline until early 2026.

The median price tends to lead the Case-Shiller index, and this suggests a lower YoY increase in the Case-Shiller index as in May over the next couple of months.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Increase in July

Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. ...

Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West. ...

• 2.0% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million in July.

• Year-over-year: 0.8% increase in existing-home sales

• 0.6% increase in unsold inventory – 1.55 million units equal to 4.6 months' supply.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in July (4.01 million SAAR) were up 2.0% from the previous month and were up 0.8% compared to the July 2024 sales rate.  

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.55 million in July from 1.54 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 15.7% year-over-year (blue) in July compared to July 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.6 months in July from 4.7 months the previous month.

I'll have more later.