by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2025 10:00:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July and a Comment on July Sales from Tom Lawler

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in July.

There were several key stories for July:

• Sales NSA are down YoY through July, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 2 1/2 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for July since 2016).

• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026)

Sales at 4.01 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were slightly above the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of July in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In July, sales in these markets were down 0.6% YoY NSA. Last month, in June, these same markets were also up 4.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in July were down 0.5% YoY NSA, so this sample is very close.

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the NSA data.
...
More local data coming in September for activity in August!

There is much more in the article.