Sunday, January 03, 2021

Sunday Night Futures

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2021 07:22:00 PM

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of January 3, 2021

Question #1 for 2021: How much will the economy grow in 2021?

Question #2 for 2021: Will all the jobs lost in 2020 return in 2021, or will job growth be sluggish?

Question #3 for 2021: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2021?

Question #4 for 2021: Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020) , or will it will only partially recover in 2021?

Question #5 for 2021: Will the core inflation rate increase in 2021? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2021?

Question #6 for 2021: Will the Fed raise rates in 2021? What about the asset purchase program?

Question #7 for 2021: How much will RI increase in 2021? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2021?

Question #8 for 2021: What will happen with house prices in 2021?

Question #9 for 2021: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021?

Question #10 for 2021: How much damage did the pandemic do to certain sectors?

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in construction spending.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for December. Sales were at 15.55 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $48.42 per barrel and Brent at $51.73 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $63, and Brent was at $69 - so WTI oil prices are down over 20% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.25 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.57 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.32 per gallon year-over-year.