Saturday, January 02, 2021

Schedule for Week of January 3, 2021

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the December ISM manufacturing and services indexes, December vehicle sales, and the November trade deficit.

----- Monday, Jan 4th -----

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for December. Sales were at 15.55 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

----- Tuesday, Jan 5th -----

8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for November.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 56.5, down from 57.5 in November.

----- Wednesday, Jan 6th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The report showed 307,000 jobs added in November.

----- Thursday, Jan 7st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. 

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $64.5 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $63.1 billion in October.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for December.

----- Friday, Jan 8th -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   There were 245 thousand jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 6.7%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.