Monday, December 23, 2019

Chicago Fed "Index points to a rebound in economic growth in November"

by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2019 09:14:00 AM

From the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index points to a rebound in economic growth in November

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.56 in November from –0.76 in October. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.25 in November from –0.35 in October.
emphasis added
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in November (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
...
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.