by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2025 08:46:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 3.3% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through April 2025.

Services were up 3.7% YoY as of April 2025, unchanged from 3.7% YoY in March.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.3% YoY in April, unchanged from 3.3% YoY in March.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.4% YoY as of April 2025, down from -1.0% YoY in March.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.2% YoY in April, up from 0.0% YoY in March.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through April) and housing from the PCE report (through March)

Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in April, unchanged from 4.0% in March. Housing (PCE) was up 4.3% YoY in March, unchanged from 4.3% in February.

This is still catching up with private new lease data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.8% YoY in April.  This key measure has been at or below the Fed's target for 8 of the last 12 months.