by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2010 02:06:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Notices of Default (NOD) by year through 2009, and for Q1 2010, in California from DataQuick.

Although the pace of filings has slowed, it is still very high by historical standards.

From Alejandro Lazo at the LA Times: California foreclosures drop 4.2% as lenders work with troubled borrowers

Across California, a total of 81,054 homes received a notice of default in the first quarter compared with 84,568 in the fourth quarter of 2009 and a record 135,431 in the first quarter of 2009.

In terms of new NOD filings, the peak was probably in 2009. A few key points:

There are a record number of homes in the foreclosure process and the timeline from the filing of the initial NOD to REO has been extended significantly. There are so many homes in the pipeline the number of distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) will probably increase sharply throughout 2010 - even if NODs decline.

Many of these NODs are probably in mid-to-high end areas (as opposed to the flood of low end foreclosures in 2008). As I've been noting for over a year, prices have probably bottomed in some low end areas, but we will probably see further price declines in many mid-to-high end areas.

Although NODs will probably decline in 2010, the number will still be very high. The number of filings in Q1 alone would be a normal year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2010 03:06:00 PM

From DataQuick: More Incremental Gains for Southland Real Estate Market

A total of 20,476 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 33.3 percent from 15,359 in February, and up 5.0 percent from 19,506 in March 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
...
“It’s a reflection of just how grim things got, that we’ve now had almost two years of sales gains and we’re still 18 percent below the sales average. ...” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
...
Foreclosure resales accounted for 38.4 percent of the resale market last month, down from 42.3 percent in February, and down from 54.8 percent a year ago. The all-time high was in February 2009 at 56.7 percent.
...
Meanwhile, Uncle Sam continues to prop up lending for many low-to mid-priced homes. Government-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 38.6 percent of all mortgages used to purchase Southland homes in March.

Absentee buyers – mostly investors and some second-home purchasers – bought 21.3 percent of the homes sold in March.

Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no indication that a corresponding purchase loan was recorded – accounted for 27.1 percent of March sales. In February it was a revised 30.0 percent – an all-time high. The 22-year monthly average for Southland homes purchased with cash is 13.8 percent.

The SoCal market is mostly first time homebuyers using FHA-insured loans, and investors paying cash. Note that foreclosure resales don't include short sales - so the 38.4% foreclosures is not all of the distressed sales (probably over 50% in SoCal).

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2010 03:28:00 PM

Note: since the mix is changing, the median price is not useful. The repeat sales indexes - like FirstAmerican CoreLogic and Case-Shiller - have problems too, but they probably are better for actual price changes.

From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales down slightly from last year, median sale price rises

Bay Area home sales were subpar again in February, dipping below the year-ago level for the second straight month as some potential buyers worried about job security, some couldn’t get financing and others found a thin inventory of homes for sale. ...

Last month’s sales fell 22.2 percent short of the February average of 6,413 sales since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.

February’s sales were the second-lowest for that month since 1995, behind the record-low 3,989 homes sold in February 2008. January and February this year are the only two months since August 2008 in which sales have fallen year-over-year.

“The sales and price data remain choppy, with more ups and downs and inconsistencies than we’d typically see. It’s partly the season – January and February are often atypical and don’t serve as good barometers. But it’s more than that. The market remains fundamentally off kilter. There’s still relatively little lending going on in the upper price ranges, and little adjustable-rate financing, which had been vital to the Bay Area. Investor and cash-only deals remain well above normal, as does the level of sales involving distressed property,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

“Despite the widening stability seen in the housing market in recent months, the outlook remains murky,” he said. “Whether prices will firm, or remain firm, will depend largely on three factors: The market’s response as the government reduces its housing stimulus, the economy’s ability to gain traction, and the decisions that lenders and borrowers will make in countless distress cases. The key question is how much more distressed inventory is coming, and when.”

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose to 36.6 percent of all homes resold last month, marking the fourth consecutive month in which foreclosure resales edged higher. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52 percent of resales in February 2009, then gradually fell and, in the fall, leveled off near 32 percent before starting to rise modestly.

... Federally-insured, low-down-payment FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 26.9 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was up from 23.3 percent a year ago and 1.4 percent two years ago.

Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 19.4 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, the same as in January and up from 18.4 percent a year ago. The monthly absentee buyer average over the past decade is 13.0 percent. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no corresponding purchase loan found in the public record – accounted for a record 27.1 percent of sales in February, up from 25.7 percent in January and 24.4 percent a year ago.

This is definitely a market "off kilter". Almost 27% of the buyers used FHA insured loans, and another 27% paid cash (mostly investors). This is a long way from normal ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2010 03:58:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southern California median price and sales volume up

Note: Ignore the median price. The repeat sales indexes from Case-Shiller and LoanPerformance are better measures. The median is impacted by the mix.

Southern California home sales in February were above year-ago levels for the 20th month in a row as buyers continued to snap up bargain properties with government-backed mortgages and tax incentives. ....

A total of 15,359 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was virtually unchanged from 15,361 in January, and up 0.8 percent from 15,231 in February 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

[CR Note: this is the second month in a row the YoY increase was razor thin.]

The February sales average is 17,983 going back to 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. The sales distribution remains tilted toward lower-cost distressed homes, although not as steeply as most of last year.
...
Foreclosure resales accounted for 42.3 percent of the resale market last month, up from 42.1 percent in January, and down from 56.7 percent a year ago, which was the all-time high.

Government-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 38.5 percent of all home purchase loans in February.

Absentee buyers – mostly investors and some second-home purchasers – bought 18.9 percent of the homes sold in February. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash – meaning there was no indication that a corresponding purchase loan was recorded – accounted for 29.3 percent of February sales. In January it was a revised 29.7 percent – an all-time high. The 22-year monthly average for Southland homes purchased with cash is 13.8 percent.

DataQuick doesn't list the percentage of short sales, but the total distressed sales is probably over 50%. Also the 38.5% of buyers using FHA insured loans is way above normal levels.

When the first time homebuyer tax credit ends, I expect the percent of FHA insured loans to decline sharply - and probably for total sales to decline. The tax credit associated buying will end in April, but the sales are counted when escrow closes - and that could be in May or June.

by Calculated Risk on 1/27/2010 03:54:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Notices of Default (NOD) by year through 2009 in California from DataQuick.

There were a record number of NODs filed in California last year, however the pace slowed in the 2nd half.

From DataQuick: Another Drop in California Mortgage Defaults

The number of California homes entering the foreclosure process declined again during fourth quarter 2009 amid signs that the worst may be over in hard-hit entry-level markets, while slowly spreading to more expensive neighborhoods. There are mixed signals for 2010: It's unclear how much of the drop in mortgage defaults is due to shifting market conditions, and how much is the result of changing foreclosure policies among lenders and loan servicers, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 84,568 Notices of Default ("NODs") were recorded at county recorder offices during the October-to-December period. That was down 24.3 percent from 111,689 for the prior quarter, and up 12.4 percent from 75,230 in fourth-quarter 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

NODs reached an all-time high in first-quarter 2009 of 135,431, a number that was inflated by activity put off from the prior four months. In the second quarter of last year, NODs totaled 124,562. The low of recent years was in the third quarter of 2004 at 12,417, when housing market annual appreciation rates were around 20 percent.

"Clearly, many lenders and servicers have concluded that the traditional foreclosure process isn't necessarily the best way to process market distress, and that losses may be mitigated with so-called short sales or when loan terms are renegotiated with homeowners," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

While many of the loans that went into default during fourth quarter 2009 were originated in early 2007, the median origination month for last quarter's defaulted loans was July 2006, the same month as during the prior three quarters. The median origination month during the last quarter of 2008 was June 2006. This means the foreclosure process has moved forward through one month of bad loans during the past 12 months.

"Mid 2006 was clearly the worst of the 'loans gone wild' period and it's taking a long time to work through them. We're also watching foreclosure activity start to move into more established mid-level and high-end neighborhoods. Homeowners there were able to make their payments longer than homeowners in entry-level neighborhoods, but because of the recession and job losses, that's changing. Foreclosure activity is a lagging indicator of distress," Walsh said.

The state's most affordable sub-markets, which represent 25 percent of the state's housing stock, accounted for 52.0 percent of all default activity a year ago. In fourth-quarter 2009 that fell to 34.9 percent. ...
emphasis added

In terms of units, the peak of the foreclosure crisis may be over, but the mid-to-high end foreclosures are increasing - and the values of these properties is much higher than the low end starter properties. This suggests that prices may have bottomed in some low end areas, but we will see further price declines in many mid-to-high end areas.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2009 02:36:00 PM

This is no surprise - existing home sales will be through the roof nationwide in November as buyers rushed to beat the initial deadline for the homebuyer tax credit. Also ignore the median price - it is skewed by the mix of properties sold.

A few key points:

A large portion of market activity is from first time homebuyers using FHA loans and investors. This is not a healthy market.

The percentage of foreclosure resales has decline to 39.1 percent - still very high historically.

The number of NODs (Notice of Default) has "flattened out or trended lower in many areas". This could be a positive, although I think the foreclosure activity is moving up the price chain - and these NODs are for more expensive properties.

From DataQuick: Southland home sales and prices up

A total of 19,181 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 13.3 percent from October’s 22,132, and up 14.7 percent from 16,720 for November 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

Sales almost always decline from October to November. The year-over-year increase was the 17th in a row. In DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988, the average November had 22,312 sales. ...

Sales have been stoked in recent months by several factors: A federal tax credit for first-time buyers, which had been set to expire last month before it was extended and expanded; robust investor activity, especially inland; super-low mortgage rates; the availability of government-insured, low-down-payment mortgages for first-time buyers; and the allure of a potential “deal” on a distressed property.

“This market is still really lopsided. Foreclosures and short sales are huge factors. There’s still not a lot of discretionary buying and selling outside the more affordable markets....” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
...
Foreclosure resales – houses and condos sold in November that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 39.1 percent of all Southland resales. That was the lowest since May 2008 when it was also 39.1 percent. It hit a high of 56.7 percent last February.

... Last month 38.1 percent of all purchase loans were FHA-insured mortgages, the same as in October and up from 34.5 percent a year ago. Two years ago FHA accounted for just 2.5 percent of purchase loans.

Absentee buyers purchased 19.1 percent of all homes sold last month ...

Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards, although mortgage default notices have flattened out or trended lower in many areas.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2009 02:11:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales up again, drop in median price smallest in 2 years

Southern California home sales rose in October as prices showed more signs of firming. The median sale price fell by the smallest amount in two years, the result of a shrinking inventory of homes for sale and government and industry efforts to stoke demand and curtail foreclosures ...
...
Last month 22,132 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. That was up 2.8 percent from 21,539 in September and also up 2.8 percent from 21,532 a year earlier, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

October marked the 16th month in a row with a year-over-year sales gain, although last month’s was the smallest of those increases. ...

Sales increases over the last two months can be partially attributed to the recent increase in short sales, which take longer to close escrow. The result is that some summer deals that might normally have closed earlier instead closed in September and October. ...

[also] A rush by some to take advantage of the federal tax credit for first-time buyers ...

FHA mortgages accounted for 38.3 percent of all Southland purchase loans last month, compared with 32.5 percent a year ago and just 2 percent two years ago. ...

“The government is playing a huge role in stabilizing and, to some extent, reinvigorating the housing market,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president. “Its actions have triggered ultra-low mortgage rates, plentiful low-down-payment (FHA) financing, an extended and expanded tax credit for home buyers, and programs and political pressure aimed at reducing foreclosures.”

“The real question now is how well can the market perform next year as some of the government stimulus disappears,” he continued. “The more upbeat outlooks suggest a strengthening economy and job market will help pick up the slack, and that demand for lower-cost foreclosures will remain robust. The more negative forecasts assume, among other things, a much slower economic recovery, more foreclosures than the market can readily digest, and more turbulence in the credit markets.”

The latter outlook suggests today’s market stability is contrived and will prove short-lived – nothing more than a temporary price plateau – while the former suggests home prices are currently at or near bottom.
...
Recent month-to-month and year-over-year gains in the median sale price reflect, in large part, a shift of late toward foreclosures representing a lower percentage of sales. It’s mainly the result of lenders and loan servicers increasingly steering distressed borrowers into either an attempted short sale or loan modification. This reduction in foreclosures is key because over the past two years foreclosed properties were often the most aggressively priced on the market.

Last month, foreclosure resales – houses and condos sold in October that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 40.6 percent of all Southland resales. That was up insignificantly from 40.4 percent in September and down from a high of 56.7 percent in February this year.

As sales of lower-cost foreclosures began to wane earlier this year, sales in higher-cost neighborhoods picked up. High-end homes began to account for a greater share of all sales and helped reverse the steep slide in the median price. Over the past few months, however, the high-end’s share of total sales has flattened out.
...
Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards, although mortgage default notices have flattened out or trended lower in many areas lately.
emphasis added

DataQuick does a good job of describing the uncertainties concerning the housing market.

The increase in FHA insured loans is amazing: from 2% in 2007 to 39.3% last month.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2009 01:30:00 PM

There is a lot of interesting data in the DataQuick report. A few key points:

2009 will be another record year for NODs.

Lenders have change policies and are trying to modify more mortgages.

2006 was a toxic lending year (probably because that was when house prices peaked or were starting to fall).

Defaults are movin' on up into the mid and high priced areas.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Notices of Default (NOD) by year through 2009¹ in California from DataQuick.

¹ 2009 estimated as total NODs to date, plus Q3 NODs (as estimate for Q4).

Clearly 2009 is on pace to break the record of 2008. I'd expect something close to 500 thousand NODs for the entire year.

From DataQuick: California Mortgage Defaults Trend Down Again

The number of mortgage default notices filed against California homeowners fell last quarter compared with the prior three-month period, the result of lenders' evolving foreclosure policies, an uncertain legislative environment and an uptick in the number of mortgages being renegotiated, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 111,689 default notices were sent out during the July-through-September period. That was down 10.3 percent from 124,562 for the prior quarter, and up 18.5 percent from 94,240 in third quarter 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

The number of recorded default notices peaked in the first quarter of this year at 135,431, although that number was inflated by deferred activity from the prior four months.

"It may well be that lenders have intentionally slowed down the pace of formal foreclosure proceedings. If so, it's not out of the goodness of their hearts. It's because they've concluded that flooding the market with cheap foreclosures in this economic environment may not be in their best financial interest. Trying to keep motivated, employed homeowners in their homes might be the most cost-efficient way to stem losses," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
...
While most foreclosure activity was still concentrated in affordable inland communities, the foreclosure problem continued to slowly migrate into more expensive areas. The state's most affordable sub-markets, which represent 25 percent of the state's housing stock, accounted for 52.2 percent of all default activity a year ago. In third-quarter 2009 it fell to 42.9 percent.
...
Although 111,689 default notices were filed last quarter, they involved 108,372 homes because some borrowers were in default on multiple loans (e.g. a primary mortgage and a line of credit). Multiple default recordings on the same home are trending down, DataQuick reported.
...
Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 50,013 during the third quarter. That was up 9.5 percent from 45,667 for the prior quarter, and down 37.1 percent from 79,511 for third-quarter 2008, which was the all-time peak.

In the last real estate cycle, Trustees Deeds peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996. The state's all-time low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005, MDA DataQuick reported.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2009 01:23:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southern California home sales inch up; median price steady

Last month 21,539 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. That was up 0.2 percent from 21,502 in August and up 5.1 percent from 20,497 a year earlier, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

September marked the 15th month in a row with a year-over-year sales gain, although last month’s was the smallest of those increases. ... The small uptick in September sales from August was atypical. On average, sales have fallen 9.5 percent between those two months.
...
“There were more than just normal, seasonal forces at work in these September sales numbers. More attempts at short sales, which typically take longer, and new appraisal rules no doubt delayed some deals this summer, causing them to close in September rather than August. September probably also got a boost from people opting to buy sooner rather than later to take advantage of the federal tax credit for first-time buyers, which is set to expire next month,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
...
Foreclosure resales – houses and condos sold in September that had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months – made up 40.4 percent of all Southland homes resold last month. That was down slightly from a revised 41.7 percent foreclosure resales in August and down from a high of 56.7 percent in February this year.
...
A common form of financing used by first-time buyers in more affordable neighborhoods remained near record levels. Government-insured FHA mortgages made up 36.4 percent of all home purchase loans last month ...

Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards.
emphasis added

Although DataQuick doesn't track short sales, we can estimate from the Sacramento data that another 15% or so of sales in SoCal were short sales - so probably over half the sales are distressed.

This report suggests sales were strong in September - similar to other regional reports.

We will probably see a decrease in year-over-year sales soon, as the first-time homebuyer tax credit buying frenzy subsides later this year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2009 03:20:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area August home sales and median price fall

Bay Area home sales bucked the seasonal norm and fell last month from July, though they remained higher than a year ago for the 12th consecutive month. The region’s overall median sale price also declined as a greater portion of sales occurred in more affordable areas ...

A total of 7,518 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was down 14.3 percent from 8,771 in July and up 4.0 percent from 7,232 in August 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
...
“Part of the mid-summer pause in the market could have been caused by home shoppers becoming frustrated by market conditions they didn’t anticipate. In many areas there were fewer homes, especially cheap foreclosures, to choose from, and lots of talk about multiple offers and all-cash deals. It might have driven some back to the sidelines,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

“At the same time, people are still concerned about job security, and about how many foreclosures might yet hit the market,” he said. “There are ongoing reports of mortgage delinquencies rising, yet the number of homes being foreclosed on has trended down lately. It’s bred a lot of uncertainty among the pundits and the public about how many more foreclosures are coming, when they’ll hit, and what impact they’ll have on prices.”

The 14.3 percent drop in sales between July and August was atypical, given the average change between those two months is a gain of 3.4 percent. ...

The median’s $35,000 drop between July and August was mainly the result of a shift toward a higher percentage of sales occurring in lower-cost inland areas. Although sales fell across the region and home price spectrum, some costlier areas saw the biggest declines. Sales fell the most – 21.1 percent – between July and August in Santa Clara County. Its share of total Bay Area sales fell to 23.1 percent in August, down from 25.1 percent in July.
...
Foreclosure resales made up 32.5 percent of total August resales, up from 31.2 percent in July but down from 36.0 percent a year ago. The August percentage was higher than July’s, despite fewer foreclosed homes selling last month, because of the sharp drop in non-foreclosure resales in August.
...
Foreclosures are off their recent peak but remain high historically ... and non-owner occupied buying is above-average in some markets, MDA DataQuick reported.

This sales decline in August is being reported in many areas.

And the shift back to more low end homes - even with the lower foreclosure inventory in the low end areas - is a bad sign for the mid-to-high end of the housing market. This suggest prices will fall further in those areas.

It appears the first-time homebuyer frenzy is started to fade, although investors are still buying in the low end areas.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2009 01:39:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales rise again as higher-cost areas awaken

Southern California homes sold last month at the fastest clip for a July in three years and the fastest pace for any month since December 2006. ...

A total of 24,104 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties last month. That was up 3.6 percent from 23,262 in June and up 18.6 percent from 20,329 a year ago, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

July’s sales total was 8.7 percent lower than the average number sold in July – 26,410 – since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. July home sales have ranged from a low of 16,225 in July 1995 to a peak of 38,996 in 2003.

Sales have increased year-over-year for 13 consecutive months. ...

Although sales of lower-cost foreclosures have tapered off, the high end of the housing market has awakened this summer from a long slumber, during which sales had been at or near record lows. July sales of existing single-family houses rose above a year ago in many coastal towns, including Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Carlsbad, Encinitas and La Jolla. Among the higher-cost Southland communities not posting such a gain were Malibu, Rancho Palos Verdes, Beverly Hills, Brentwood and Del Mar.
...
Last month 43.4 percent of the Southland houses and condos that resold had been foreclosed on in the prior year – the lowest level since June 2008. July’s foreclosure resales figure was down from 45.3 percent in June and from a peak 56.7 percent in February 2009.
...
“Have prices hit bottom? While some data continue to hint at that, it remains an especially risky call to make given the uncertainty over the magnitude of future job losses and foreclosures. The recent drop in foreclosure resales, coupled with the rise in high-end sales, has helped stabilize some of the regional home price measures. But there’s still quite a bit of distress out there, and plenty of unknowns with regard to how lenders and borrowers will choose to proceed,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
...
Investors and other absentee buyers, defined as those who will have their property tax bills sent to a different address, bought 19.4 percent of the Southland homes sold last month. That’s up from 15.5 percent a year ago and a monthly average since 2000 of about 15 percent. San Bernardino County had the highest share of absentee buyers in July: 27 percent.
...
Foreclosure activity remains near record levels ...
emphasis added

Last year sales were very low in the high end areas, so some year-over-year pickup isn't surprising. Unfortunately DataQuick didn't break out the actual numbers.

Close to 20% of properties are being bought by investors, and 43.4% are foreclosure resales. These numbers are still very high and will probably increase after the Summer.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2009 02:10:00 PM

Note: Ignore the median price, especially during periods when the mix is changing rapidly.

From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales and median price rise

Home sales in the Bay Area jumped to their highest level in almost three years, the result of improved mortgage availability and a perception among potential buyers that prices have bottomed out. ...

A total of 8,644 new and resale houses and condos sold across the nine-county Bay Area in June. That was up 16.1 percent from 7,447 in May and up 20.4 percent from 7,178 in June 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

Home sales have increased on a year-over-year basis the last ten months. June sales have varied from a low of 7,118 in 1993 to 15,735 in 2004 in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988. Last month was 16.1 percent below the 10,306 for an average June.
...
Financing with home loans above the old “jumbo” limit of $417,000 edged up to the highest level in almost a year. Last month 28.8 percent of all Bay Area mortgages were jumbos, the highest since 31.9 percent in August last year and well above the bottom of 17.1 percent last January. Two years ago jumbos accounted for more than 60 percent of all home purchase loans.
...
Last month 37.3 percent of all homes resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months, down from 40.5 percent in May and the lowest since 36.0 percent in August 2008. The peak was 52.0 percent in February this year. By county, foreclosure resales ranged last month from 6.3 percent of all resales in Marin to 62.7 percent in Solano.
...
Foreclosure activity remains near record levels ...

This is still far from a normal market with 37.3% of sales foreclosure resales. And prices will probably continue to fall for some time, especially in the higher priced areas since there are few move-up buyers.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2009 05:08:00 PM

Note: Ignore the median home price during periods of rapidly changing mix.

From DataQuick: Southland home sales highest since late ’06; median price up again

Southern California home sales rose in June to the highest level in 30 months as the number of deals above $500,000 continued to climb. ...

A total of 23,262 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties last month. That was up 12.0 percent from 20,775 in May and up 29.0 percent from a revised 18,032 a year ago, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

Sales have increased year-over-year for 12 consecutive months.

June’s sales were the highest for that month since 2006, when 31,602 homes sold, but were 17.7 percent below the average June sales total since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. June sales peaked at 40,156 in 2005 and hit a low last year.

Foreclosures remained a major force in June, but their impact on the resale market eased for the third consecutive month.

Foreclosure resales – homes sold in June that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – represented 45.3 percent of Southland resales last month, down from 49.7 percent in May and down from a peak 56.7 percent in February this year. Last month’s level was the lowest since foreclosure resales were 43.7 percent of resales in July 2008.
...
The recent shift toward higher-cost markets contributing more to overall sales has put upward pressure on the region’s median sale price – the point where half of the homes sold for more and half for less. The median dived sharply over the past year not just because of price depreciation but because of a shift toward an unusually large share of sales occurring in lower-cost, foreclosure-heavy areas.
...
“The rising median should still be viewed mainly as a sign the market’s moving back toward a more normal distribution of sales across the home price spectrum.” ... said John Walsh, DataQuick president.
...
Foreclosure activity remains near record levels ... Financing with multiple mortgages is low, down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, and non-owner occupied buying is above-average in some markets, MDA DataQuick reported.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2009 02:10:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland median sale price inches up for first time since ‘07

Southern California home sales rose for the 11th consecutive month in May as sales of $500,000-plus homes started to come back. The median price paid increased slightly from the prior month for the first time since July 2007, the result of a shift in market activity where sales of deeply discounted foreclosures waned and mid- to high-end purchases rose, a real estate information service reported.
emphasis added

Yesterday I noted that Cramer was fooled by the rise in median prices (as reported by NAR). DataQuick makes this clear that the increase was because of a slight change in mix. Prices are still falling.

A total of 20,775 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties last month. That was up 1.3 percent from 20,514 in April and up 22.8 percent from 16,917 a year ago, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

Sales have increased year-over-year for 11 consecutive months.

May’s sales were the highest for that month since May 2006, when 30,303 homes sold, but were 21.2 percent below the average May sales total since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.

Foreclosure resales – homes sold in May that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 50.2 percent of all Southland resales. That was down from 53.5 percent in April and from a peak of 56.7 percent in February. May’s figure was the lowest since foreclosure resales were 50.9 percent of all resales last October.

The remarkably sharp declines in the Southland’s median sale price over the past year have been exacerbated by a shift toward an above-average number of sales occurring in lower-cost inland markets rife with discounted foreclosures. However, the number of homes lost to foreclosure declined over the winter, leaving fewer for bargain hunters to scoop up this spring. Meantime, sales have begun to rise a bit in many mid- to high-end markets, which could be due at least in part to sellers dropping their asking prices.

Last month 83 percent of the existing Southland houses sold were purchased for less than $500,000, compared with 84.8 percent in April. Conversely, sales $500,000 and above rose from 15.2 percent of sales in April to 17 percent in May. The last time the $500,000-plus market made up more than 17 percent of all sales was last October, when they were 19.9 percent of sales.
...
“We appear to be in the early stages of the market gradually tilting back toward a more normal balance of sales across the home price spectrum. As more sellers get realistic, more buyers get off the fence and more lenders offer reasonable terms for high-end purchase financing, we’ll see a more normal share of sales in the more established, higher-cost areas that have been nearly comatose,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

...
Absentee buyers, including investors who will have their property tax bills sent to a different address, bought 19.4 percent of the Southland homes sold last month. That’s up from 16.9 percent a year ago and 18.6 percent in April. The monthly average since 2000: 15 percent.
...
Foreclosure activity remains near record levels ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2009 02:12:00 PM

The tale of two cities continues ...

From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales rise again; median price up slightly over March

Bay Area home sales posted a year-over-year gain for the eighth consecutive month in April, with robust sales in lower-cost inland areas once again compensating for anemic sales on the coast. ...

A total of 7,139 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 12.9 percent from 6,325 in March and up 13.1 percent from 6,310 in April 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

Last month’s sales were the second-lowest for an April since 1995 and were 23.2 percent below the average April sales total back to 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.

Foreclosure resales – homes sold in April that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 47.4 percent of Bay Area resales. That was down from 50.2 percent in March and 52.0 percent in February. Last month’s figure was the lowest since foreclosure resales were 46.8 percent of existing home sales last November.

A lower concentration of discounted foreclosure resales in the statistics is one reason the median sale price has recently begun to more or less flatten, or at least erode more slowly, in many markets.
...
Home sales in many high-end areas, especially on the coast, remain at record or near-record-low levels.

In lower-cost communities, first-time buyers have turned to government-insured FHA mortgages, which represented a record 26 percent of all Bay Area home purchase loans in April, up from 3.2 percent a year ago. The combination of FHA financing, steep home price declines and low mortgage rates have fueled record or near-record-high sales this spring in many of the Bay Area’s most affordable, foreclosure-heavy communities.
...
Foreclosure activity remains at historically high levels ...
emphasis added

Key points (worth repeating):

Ignore median price. The mix changes the median price too much.

Sales at the low end are "robust". Record or near record sales in the "affordable, foreclosure-heavy" communities.

Sales at the high end are "anemic". Record or near-record-low sales in the high end areas. Note: This will change once prices start to fall (See House Price Puzzle: Mid-to-High End)

Foreclosures are still at "historically high" levels - and will probably hit records again now that the moratorium is over. Foreclosure resales accounted for 47.4 percent of all resales last month. Remember the Distressing Gap!

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2009 02:46:00 PM

Note: I think California data provides an overview of the key dynamics in the housing market.

From DataQuick: Southland home sales hot inland, cool on coast; median price dips

Southern California homes sold at a faster pace than a year ago for the 10th consecutive month in April as first-time buyers and investors continued to target distressed inland properties. ...

A total of 20,514 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the six-county Southland last month. That was up 5.2 percent from 19,506 in March and up 31.4 percent from 15,615 a year ago ... Last month’s sales were the highest for that month since April 2006, when 27,114 homes sold, but were 18.2 percent below the average April sales total since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.

Foreclosure resales – homes sold in April that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 53.6 percent of all Southland resales last month. It was the seventh consecutive month in which post-foreclosure properties made up more than half of all resales.

The deep discounts associated with foreclosures have created stiff competition for builders, who last month sold the lowest number of newly constructed homes for an April since at least 1988.

At the same time, the number of single-family houses that resold last month was at record or near-record-high levels for an April in many of the more affordable, foreclosure-heavy inland markets. They included Palmdale, Lancaster, Moreno Valley, Perris, Indio, San Jacinto, Lake Elsinore and Victorville.

The sales picture was dramatically different in many older, high-end communities closer to the coast, where foreclosures and deep discounts are less common. Sales of existing houses remained at or near record lows for an April in markets such as Beverly Hills, Malibu, Palos Verdes Peninsula, Manhattan Beach and Pacific Palisades.

Key points:

Ignore median price. The mix changes the median price too much.

The low end is hot. Record or near record sales in the "affordable, foreclosure-heavy" communities.

The high end is cool. This will change once prices start to fall (See House Price Puzzle: Mid-to-High End)

Foreclosures are still near record levels - and will probably hit records again now that the moratorium is over. Foreclosure resales accounted for 53.6 percent of all resales last month. Remember the Distressing Gap!

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2009 01:38:00 PM

From DataQuick: Golden State Mortgage Defaults Jump to Record High

Lenders filed a record number of mortgage default notices against California homeowners during the first three months of this year, the result of the recession and of lenders playing catch-up after a temporary lull in foreclosure activity ...

A total of 135,431 default notices were sent out during the January- to-March period. That was up 80.0 percent from 75,230 for the prior quarter and up 19.0 percent from 113,809 in first quarter 2008, according to MDA DataQuick.

Last quarter's total was an all-time high for any quarter in DataQuick's statistics, which for defaults go back to 1992. There were 121,673 default notices filed in second quarter 2008 and 94,240 in third quarter 2008, during which a new state law took effect requiring lenders to take added steps aimed at keeping troubled borrowers in their homes.

"The nastiest batch of California home loans appears to have been made in mid to late 2006 and the foreclosure process is working its way through those. Back then different risk factors were getting piled on top of each other. Adjustable-rate mortgages can be good loans. So can low- down-payment loans, interest-only loans, stated-income loans, etcetera. But if you combine these elements into one loan, it's toxic," said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

The median origination month for last quarter's defaulted loans was July 2006. That's only four months later than the median origination month for defaulted loans a year ago, in first quarter 2008. That suggests a period where underwriting criteria were particularly lax.

Of the 3.7 million home loans made in 2004, less than 1 percent have since resulted in a lender filing a default notice. Of the 3.7 million loans originated in 2005, 4.9 percent have triggered a default notice so far. Of the 3 million in 2006, 8.5 percent have so far resulted in default. A particularly toxic period appears to have been August through November 2006 which had more than a 9 percent default rate. Of the 2.1 million loans made in 2007, it's 4.6 percent - a percentage that's likely to rise significantly during the rest of this year.

The lending institutions with the highest default rates for loans originated in August to November 2006 include ResMAE Mortgage (69.9 percent of loans resulting in a default notice), Master Financial (64.6 percent) and Ownit Mortgage Solutions (63.6 percent). Of the major lenders, IndyMac has a default rate on those loans of 18.9 percent, World Savings 8.0 percent, Countrywide 7.7 percent, Washington Mutual 6.3 percent and Wells Fargo 3.4 percent. Less than 1 percent of the home loans originated in late 2006 by Citibank and Bank of America have since gone into default.
...
While most first quarter 2009 foreclosure activity was still concentrated in affordable inland communities, there are signs that the problem is slowly migrating into other areas. The affordable sub-markets, which represent 25 percent of the state's housing stock, accounted for more than 52.0 percent of all default activity in 2008. Last quarter it fell to 47.5 percent.
emphasis added

There is a lot of interesting data in this report. A few key points:

2009 will probably be another record year for NODs (although the lenders were playing catch-up in Q1)

2006 was a toxic year (probably because that was when house prices peaked or were starting to fall).

Defaults are movin' on up into the mid and high priced areas.

About two-thirds of the loans that ResMAE and Ownit made in 2006 are in default.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Notices of Default (NOD) by year through 2008 in California from DataQuick.

With 135,431 default notices filed in Q1 2009 (even with the lenders playing catch-up), 2009 is clearly on pace to break the 2008 record of 424 thousand NODs.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2009 01:26:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales up; median levels off

Home sales in Southern California increased again last month, led by strong foreclosure resale activity in the Inland Empire. ...

A total of 19,486 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 27.9 percent from 15,231 for the prior month, and up 52.1 percent from 12,808 for March 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

An increase from February to March is normal for the season. Last month was the ninth in a row with a year-over-year sales increase. March last year was the slowest March in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The March average is 25,138.

"We're still waiting for the upper half of the mortgage market to open up. We know that sales of lower-cost housing, especially foreclosure resales in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, are driving today's market. What we don't know is how the recession has affected the more expensive neighborhoods," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

... a common form of financing used by first-time home buyers in more affordable neighborhoods is near record levels. Government- insured, FHA mortgages made up 37.8 percent of all purchase loans in March, up slightly from a revised 37.5% in February and up from 10.1% in March last year.

Regionwide, foreclosure resales accounted for 55.4 percent of March's resales activity, down from a revised 56.7 percent in February and up from 35.7 percent in March 2008.
...
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is nearing its 2008 peak ...
emphasis added

Sales are being driven by foreclosure resales (55.4% of all sales) in the less expensive areas. There are two problems for the mid-to-high end: limited financing with jumbo loans, and prices haven't fallen enough (but foreclosure activity is now increasing in the higher priced areas and that will push down prices).

As always, ignore the median price. Note that foreclosure activity is picking up again (after the moratorium).

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2009 01:04:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area home sales climb above last year as median falls below $300K

Note: Beware of the median price. That is skewed by the change in mix towards the low end.

Bay Area home sales beat the year-ago mark for the sixth straight month in February as the winter market sizzled in many foreclosure-heavy inland areas offering the deepest discounts. The median price dipped below $300,000 for the first time since late 1999, pushed lower by an abundance of inland distressed sales and a dearth of coastal high-end activity ...

A total of 5,032 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was essentially unchanged from 5,050 in January but up 26.1 percent from 3,989 in February 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
...
The allure of such discounted foreclosures helped lift sales of existing single-family houses to record levels for a February in Vallejo, Brentwood, Antioch, Pittsburg, Oakley and Gilroy.

The use of government-insured, FHA loans – a common choice among first-time buyers – represented a record 24.9 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans last month.

Conversely, use of so-called jumbo loans to finance high-end property remained at abnormally low levels. Before the credit crunch hit in August 2007, jumbo loans, then defined as over $417,000, represented 62 percent of Bay Area purchase loans, compared with just 17.5 percent last month.
...
Last month 52 percent of all homes that resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, up from a revised 51.9 percent in January and 22.3 percent a year ago.

At the county level, foreclosure resales last month ranged from 12.1 percent of resales in San Francisco to 69.5 percent in Solano County. In the other seven counties, foreclosure resales were as follows: Alameda, 46.2 percent; Contra Costa, 65.1 percent; Marin, 18.9 percent; Napa, 63.1 percent; Santa Clara, 42.9 percent; San Mateo, 31.3 percent; and Sonoma, 57.1 percent.
emphasis added

And there is this interesting comment:

Only 321 newly constructed homes sold last month, down 55 percent from 713 a year ago, the lowest on record for a February, and the second-lowest for any month back to 1988. Many builders have had a difficult time competing with falling resale prices – especially foreclosures.

Only 321 new homes in the entire Bay Area? Wow.

This really shows what is happening. Volumes have all but disappeared for high end homes (and jumbo loans), and the low end is dominated by foreclosure resales (and more FHA loans). The builders can't compete with the foreclosure resales, so new home sales have declined sharply.

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2009 01:18:00 PM

Note: I ignore the median price data because it is skewed by the mix of homes sold. A repeat sales index like Case-Shiller is a better indicator of price changes.

From DataQuick: Southland home sales outpace last year again; median price steady

Southland home sales stayed above year-ago levels for the eighth consecutive month in February ... Market activity was dominated by bargain-hunting in affordable neighborhoods while buying and selling in more expensive established areas remained largely on hold ...

A total of 15,231 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was essentially unchanged from 15,227 for January, and up 41.3 percent from 10,777 for February 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
...
Regionwide, foreclosure resales accounted for 56.4 percent of February’s resales activity, which was the same as the revised January figure and up from 36.2 percent in February 2008.

Sales are up because of foreclosure resales in less expensive neighborhoods. Meanwhile, sales in "more expensive established areas" have slowed to a trickle. This build up in supply will eventually lead to more price declines in the expensive areas ...