by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2009 12:33:00 PM

Click on puzzle for larger image in new window.

I've linked to a few pieces of the puzzle below.

But this adds up to more supply (in the mid-to-high end) because of rising foreclosures - and limited demand because sellers at the low end are mostly banks or short sales (so there are no move up buyers), and tight financing.

To me, this suggests prices will fall much further in many mid-to-high end areas.

Surging prime delinquencies.

See: OCC: More Seriously Delinquent Prime Loans than Subprime

and Fannie, Freddie Report Surge in Prime Delinquencies

and S&P: Delinquencies Surge for HELOCs and Jumbo Prime Loans

Option ARM Loan Recasts are coming.

See: Loan Reset / Recast Schedule

Limited Jumbo Financing

See: More Jumbo Financing Coming

Few Move up buyers

See: Home Sales: One and Done

And even more shadow supply, see: High Percentage of Homeowners Waiting for a Market Turnaround