Sunday, November 04, 2012

Monday: ISM Service Index

by Bill McBride on 11/04/2012 08:40:00 PM

A couple of earlier posts that might interest some readers:
Retail: Seasonal Hiring vs. Retail Sales
Update: Further Discussion on Labor Force Participation Rate

A few scary articles on Europe:
• From the WSJ: Europe's Bank Reviews Collateral

The European Central Bank is looking into whether it is treating Spanish government Treasury bills too generously when commercial banks present them as collateral for loans, potentially reviving concerns over the safety of the central bank's €3 trillion ($3.85 trillion) balance sheet.

An ECB spokeswoman confirmed the collateral examination Sunday after Germany's Welt am Sonntag newspaper reported, based on its own research, that the ECB hasn't followed its own rules when banks presented some Spanish government securities.
• From the WSJ: Greece's Siren Call
Voting in the Greek parliament on the passage of €13.5 billion ($17.33 billion) of austerity measures, labor reforms and the 2013 budget will also be a focus for financial markets. ... The immediate risk is that Greece fails to approve the new austerity measures. ... The next vote is needed to unlock €31.5 billion of bailout funding, much of which will go to recapitalize Greece's banks. Again, PASOK's behavior will be key.

If Greece jumps that hurdle, it still needs an extension of two years from the rest of Europe on its budget targets, as its economy has suffered far more than forecast.
• From the Telegraph: Angela Merkel: eurozone crisis will last at least another five years
“We need a long breath of five years and more,” [Merkel] told a conference in Sternberg, Germany
Five more years?

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 54.9 from 55.1 in September. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Trulia Price Rent Monitors for October will be released. This is the new index from Trulia that uses asking prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors and seems like a decent leading indicator for house prices.

The Asian markets are mostly red tonight, with the Nikkei down 0.3%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 2 and DOW futures are down 8.

Oil prices are falling with WTI futures at $84.78 per barrel and Brent down to $105.44 per barrel. This is the lowest level since July. And gasoline prices are falling too!

Weekend:
Summary for Week Ending Nov 2nd
Schedule for Week of Nov 4th

Two more questions this week for the November economic prediction contest and four question for the November contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).


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