Sunday, November 18, 2012

Monday: Existing Home Sales, Homebuilder Confidence

by Bill McBride on 11/18/2012 09:00:00 PM

First on the recession in the Euro Zone from Jim Hamilton: Europe in recession

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (the European counterpart of the U.S. NBER) last week issued a declaration that Europe entered a new recession a year ago, dating the business cycle peak at 2011:Q3.
This was pretty obvious a year ago.

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.74 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in September 2012 were 4.75 million SAAR.  Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales at 4.84 million SAAR. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a decline in sales to 4.67 million, and Merrill Lynch is forecasting 4.60 million.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the NAHB will release their November homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 41, unchanged from October. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

The Asian markets are green tonight, with the Nikkei up 1.5%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are up 6 and DOW futures are up 46.

Oil prices are up slightly with WTI futures at $87.48 per barrel and Brent at $109.46 per barrel. Gasoline prices are still falling a little.

Weekend:
Summary for Week Ending Nov 16th
Schedule for Week of Nov 18th

And on mortgage delinquencies:
• Press Release: Q3 National Delinquency Survey
Q3 MBA National Delinquency Survey Graph and Comments
Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type in Q3
Serious Mortgage Delinquencies and In-Foreclosure by State
Percent of Mortgage Seriously Delinquent over time, Selected States

Two more questions this week for the November economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).


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