by Bill McBride on 11/15/2012 11:13:00 AM
Thursday, November 15, 2012
A few comments from Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics, on the Q3 MBA National Delinquency Survey conference call.
• Significant drop in "shadow inventory" with the declines in the 90+ day delinquency and in foreclosure categories.
• This was the largest decline in foreclosure inventory ever recorded.
• Significant difference between judicial and non-judicial states. The judicial foreclosure inventory was at 6.61%, and the non-judicial inventory was at 2.42%. Both are now declining.
• There has been "dramatic" improvement in California and Arizona. Overall there is continued improvement, "perhaps more quickly than expected".
• There has been some improvement in FHA delinquencies because of the strong credit quality of recent originations. Most of the delinquent loans are from the 2008 and 2009 vintages.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph is from the MBA and shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state. Posted with permission.
The top states are Florida (13.04% in foreclosure down from 13.70% in Q2), New Jersey (8.87% up from 7.65%), Illinois (6.83% down from 7.11%), New York (6.46% down from 6.47%) and Nevada (the only non-judicial state in the top 13 at 5.93% down from 6.09%).
As Fratantoni noted, California (2.63% down from 3.07%) and Arizona (2.51% down from 3.24%) are now well below the national average.
The second graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.
Loans 30 days delinquent increased to 3.25% from 3.18% in Q2. This is just above 2007 levels and around the long term average.
Delinquent loans in the 60 day bucket decreased to 1.19% in Q3, from 1.22% in Q2.
The 90 day bucket decreased to 2.96% from 3.19%. This is still way above normal (around 0.8% would be normal according to the MBA).
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased to 4.07% from 4.27% and is now at the lowest level since Q1 2009.
Note: "MBA’s National Delinquency Survey covers 41.8 million loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties, representing approximately 88 percent of all “first-lien” residential mortgage loans outstanding in the United States. This quarter’s loan count saw a decrease of about 733,000 loans from the previous quarter, and a decrease of 1,752,000 loans from one year ago. Loans surveyed were reported by approximately 120 lenders, including mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts."