by Bill McBride on 11/17/2012 01:11:00 PM
Saturday, November 17, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending Nov 16th
This is a short week (Happy Thanksgiving!), but there are several key releases early in the week.
On Monday, the NAR will release existing home sales for October, and the NAHB will release their homebuilder confidence survey. On Tuesday, Housing Starts for October will be released. Housing has been the bright spot for the U.S. economy recently.
Also on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak on "The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy".
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The consensus is for sales of 4.74 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in September 2012 were 4.75 million SAAR.
Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales at 4.84 million SAAR. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a decline in sales to 4.67 million, and Merrill Lynch is forecasting 4.60 million.
A key will be inventory and months-of-supply.
10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 41, unchanged from October. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for October.
Total housing starts were at 872 thousand (SAAR) in September, up 15.0% from the revised August rate of 758 thousand (SAAR). Single-family starts increased 11.0% to 603 thousand in September.
The consensus is for total housing starts to decline to 840,000 (SAAR) in October, down from 872,000 in September.
Goldman Sachs is forecasting a decline in starts to 840,000, and Merrill Lynch is forecasting 815,000.
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2012
12:15 PM: Speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy, At the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 400 thousand from 439 thousand. Note: Claims increased sharply last week due to Hurricane Sandy.
9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash. This is a new release and might provide hints about the ISM PMI for November. This index was at 51.5 in October.
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for November). The consensus is for no change from the preliminary reading of 84.9. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a decline in confidence to 81.0, and Merrill Lynch is forecasting a decline to 83.
10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for October. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in this index.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.
Europe: Two day EU Leaders Summit Meeting
SIFMA recommends US markets close at 2:00 PM ET following the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. The NYSE will close at 1:00 PM ET.