Friday, November 16, 2012

Lawler: Early Read on October Existing Home Sales

by Bill McBride on 11/16/2012 07:48:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Based on what I've seen, I expect the NAR's existing home sales number will come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.84 million.

The unadjusted YOY change will be a boatload higher in October than in September, but October this year had two more business days than last October, so...

Closed sales were only slightly impacted by Sandy; a bigger impact in some hit markets is more likely to show up in November.

Best guess on inventories is a monthly decline of 3.4%.

CR Notes: The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.74 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis on Monday. Based on Lawler's estimates, the NAR will report inventory around 2.3 million units for October, and months-of-supply will be around 5.7 months. This will be the lowest level of inventory for October since 2001 or 2002, and the lowest months-of-supply since early 2006.

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