by Bill McBride on 11/15/2012 10:00:00 AM
Thursday, November 15, 2012
The MBA reported that 11.47 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q3 2012 (delinquencies seasonally adjusted). This is down from 11.85 percent in Q2 2012.
From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Decreased During Third Quarter
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.40 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2012, a decrease of 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2012, and a decrease of 59 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.Note: 7.40% (SA) and 4.07% equals 11.47%.
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. ... The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.07 percent, down 20 basis points from the second quarter and 36 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 7.03 percent, a decrease of 28 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 86 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
“Mortgage delinquencies decreased compared to last quarter overall, driven mainly by a decline in loans that are 90 days or more delinquent,” observed Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “The 90 day delinquency rate is at its lowest level since 2008, and together with the decline in the percentage of loans in foreclosure, this indicates a significant drop in the shadow inventory of distressed loans-a real positive for the housing market. The 30 day delinquency rate increased slightly, but remains close to the long-term average for this metric. Given the weak economic and job growth in third quarter, it is not surprising that this metric has not improved. ”
“The improvement in total delinquency rates was accompanied by a further drop in the foreclosure starts rate, which hit its lowest level since 2007. Moreover, the foreclosure inventory rate decreased by 20 basis points over the quarter, the largest quarterly drop in the history of the survey. The level however, is still roughly four times the long-run average for this series as we continue to see back logs of loans in the foreclosure process in states with a judicial foreclosure system. The foreclosure rate for judicial states decreased slightly to 6.6 percent and the foreclosure rate for non-judicial states showed a steeper drop to 2.4 percent. The difference in the foreclosure rates of the two regimes is at its widest since we started tracking this metric in 2006."
I'll have more (and graphs) later after the conference call this morning.