by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2011 11:31:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in August. Twenty-six states and the District of Columbia reported unemployment rate increases, 12 states recorded rate decreases, and 12 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Nevada continued to report the highest unemployment rate among the states, 13.4 percent in August. California posted the next highest rate, 12.1 percent. North Dakota registered the lowest jobless rate, 3.5 percent, followed by Nebraska, 4.2 percent. ...

New Mexico registered the largest jobless rate decrease from August 2010 (-1.9 percentage points). Four additional states reported smaller but also statistically significant decreases over the year: Oklahoma (-1.4 percentage points), Indiana (-1.3 points), Oregon (-1.1 points), and Florida (-0.9 point). ... Forty-five states recorded unemployment rates that were not appreciably different from those of a year earlier.

The following graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). If there is no blue, the state is currently at the maximum during the recession.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate.

Three states and D.C. are at new 2007 recession highs: Arkansas (8.3%), D.C. (11.1%), Texas (8.5%) and Montana (7.8%).

The fact that 45 states and the District of Columbia have seen little or no improvement over the last year is a reminder that the unemployment crisis is ongoing.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2011 09:55:00 AM

The preliminary September Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased slightly to 57.8 from 55.7 in July.


Click on graph for larger image in graphic gallery.

In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices. In August, sentiment was probably negatively impacted by the debt ceiling debate.

Note: It usually takes 2 to 4 months to bounce back from an event driven decline in sentiment (if the August decline was event driven) - and any bounce back from the debt ceiling debate would be to an already weak reading.

This was slightly above the consensus forecast of 56.0.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2011 08:44:00 AM

Not much news yet ...

From Reuters: Geithner Presses EU to Act Decisively, Speak as One

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told EU finance ministers on Friday they should end loose talk about a euro zone break-up and work more closely with the European Central Bank to tackle the debt crisis.
...
"What is very damaging (in Europe) from the outside is not the divisiveness about the broader debate, about strategy, but about the ongoing conflict between governments and the central bank, and you need both to work together to do what is essential to the resolution of any crisis," he said.

"Governments and central banks have to take out the catastrophic risks from markets ...(and avoid) loose talk about dismantling the institutions of the euro."

And from the WSJ: Finance Chiefs Meet to Resolve Splits on Crisis

Euro-zone finance ministers gathering for two days of talks said they would strive to ease market tensions caused by the region's escalating sovereign-debt problems but didn't appear ready to overcome divisions that have marred efforts to resolve the crisis.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2011 11:34:00 PM

A couple of articles from earlier:
• From Freddie Mac: Fixed-Rate Mortgages Continue To Find New Record Lows

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing fixed-rate mortgages remaining near their 60-year lows as ongoing investor concerns over the European debt market kept Treasury bond yields low. The 30-year fixed averaged 4.09 percent, a new all-time low. The 15-year fixed, a popular refinancing option, also reached a new record low for the week averaging 3.30 percent.

• From RealtyTrac: U.S. Foreclosure Activity Increases 7 Percent in August, Defaults Surge 33 Percent

RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com) ... today released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for August 2011, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 228,098 U.S. properties in August, a 7 percent increase from the previous month, but still down nearly 33 percent from August 2010.

Default notices (NOD, LIS) were filed for the first time on a total of 78,880 U.S. properties in August, a nine-month high and a 33 percent increase from July — the biggest month-over-month increase since August 2007. Despite the monthly increase, default notices were still down 18 percent from August 2010 and were 44 percent below the monthly peak of 142,064 default notices in April 2009.

Default notices increased more than 40 percent on a month-over-month basis in several states, including New Jersey (42 percent), Indiana (46 percent) and California (55 percent), but were still down from a year ago in all of those states.

“The big increase in new foreclosure actions may be a signal that lenders are starting to push through some of the foreclosures delayed by robo-signing and other documentation problems,” said James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “It also foreshadows more bank repossessions in the coming months as these new foreclosures make their way through the process.”

According to LPS, in July there were about 1.9 million loans 90+ delinquent but not in the foreclosure process (another 2.2 million already in the foreclosure process). In more normal times lenders would have filed a default notice on the majority of the 90+ day delinquent loans. Maybe they are now getting the process started.

Jim the Realtor mentioned today that it seems the lenders are "being proactive in identifying defaulters who have already bailed, so they know they can quit worrying about the stinkin' loan mod and get on with the foreclosure."

Earlier:
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 428,000
• Industrial Production increased 0.2% in August, Capacity Utilization increases slightly
• NY and Philly Fed Manufacturing surveys show contraction
• Key Measures of Inflation increase in August
• Early Look: 2012 Social Security Cost-Of-Living Adjustment on track for 3.5% increase

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2011 07:39:00 PM

On Friday, the European finance ministers will meet, and Timothy Geithner will make an appearance and probably propose using the EFSF like the TALF - from Reuters: Geithner Is Likely to Suggest Europe Leverage Bailout Fund (ht jb)

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is likely to suggest to European finance ministers on Friday that they leverage their bailout fund along the lines of the U.S. TALF program, EU officials said.
...
Under TALF, the New York Fed would lend out up to $200 billion, taking ABS as collateral with a haircut and the Treasury offered $20 billion credit protection for the Fed.

In this way, a little bit of public money leveraged a much larger central bank contribution and the same idea could work for the European Financial Stability Facility, which has 440 billion euros at its disposal, to offer credit protection to, for example, the ECB to buy euro zone sovereign bonds.

This might work, but the sovereign debt collateral haircuts have to be appropriate.

Note: Earlier today, the ECB announced three U.S. dollar liquidity-providing operations in coordination with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank.

The Greek 2 year yield declined sharply to 61%. The Greek 1 year yield is down to 129%!

The Portuguese 2 year yield declined slightly to 15.9% and the Irish 2 year yield was down to 9.1%.

Earlier:
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 428,000
• Industrial Production increased 0.2% in August, Capacity Utilization increases slightly
• NY and Philly Fed Manufacturing surveys show contraction
• Key Measures of Inflation increase in August
• Early Look: 2012 Social Security Cost-Of-Living Adjustment on track for 3.5% increase