by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2025 10:17:00 AM

The BEA reported this morning that light vehicle sales were at 16.07 million in August on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

This was down 2.9% from the sales rate in July, and up 6.2% from August 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through July (red).

Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".

Then sales were depressed in May and June. 

Sales were boosted in August due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in August were at the consensus forecast of 16.1 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.0%, up from 50.1% last month. The employment index increased to 46.5%, from 46.4%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52% August 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector grew in August for the third consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 52 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 13th time in the last 14 months.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In August, the Services PMI® registered 52 percent, 1.9 percentage points higher than the July figure of 50.1 percent and in expansion territory for the third month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in August, registering 55 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 52.6 percent recorded in July. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in August, with a reading of 56 percent, up 5.7 percent from July’s figure of 50.3 percent. The Employment Index was in contraction territory for the third month in a row and the fifth time in the last six months; the reading of 46.5 percent is 0.1 percentage point higher than the 46.4 percent recorded in July.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.3 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the 51 percent recorded in July and matching the June reading. This is the ninth consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 69.2 percent in August, a 0.7-percentage point decrease from July’s reading of 69.9 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for nine straight months, its longest such streak since 30 consecutive readings above 60 percent from October 2020 to March 2023.
emphasis added

Employment was very weak for the 3rd consecutive month, and prices paid was high.

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2025 08:35:00 AM

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.3 billion in July, up $19.2 billion from $59.1 billion in June, revised.

July exports were $280.5 billion, $0.8 billion more than June exports. July imports were $358.8 billion, $20.0 billion more than June imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports and imports increased in July.

Exports were up 3.4% year-over-year; imports were up 2.6% year-over-year.

Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs.  

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $17.1 billion from $30.0 billion a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 237,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 228,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 231,000.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2025 08:15:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 54,000 Jobs in August; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%

“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.”
emphasis added

This was below the consensus forecast of 72,000 jobs added. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 78,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August.

by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2025 07:58:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:15 AM ET, The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 72,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from 104,000 in July.

• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 232 thousand from 229 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $64.2 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $60.2 Billion the previous month.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for August.

by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2025 02:00:00 PM

Beige Book - August 2025

Most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period—the four Districts that differed reported modest growth. Across Districts, contacts reported flat to declining consumer spending because, for many households, wages were failing to keep up with rising prices. Contacts frequently cited economic uncertainty and tariffs as negative factors. New York reported that "consumers were being squeezed by rising costs of insurance, utilities, and other expenses." Contacts observed the following responses to the consumer pullback. Retail and hospitality sectors offered deals and promotions to help price-sensitive consumers stretch their dollars—supporting steady demand from domestic leisure tourists but not offsetting falling demand from international visitors. The auto sector noted flat to slightly higher sales, while consumer demand increased for parts and services to repair older vehicles. Manufacturing firms reported shifting to local supply chains where feasible and often using automation to cut costs. The push to deploy AI partly explains the surge of data center construction—a rare strength in commercial real estate noted by the Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago Districts. Atlanta and Kansas City reported that data centers had increased energy demand in their Districts. Overall, sentiment was mixed among the Districts. Most firms either reported little to no change in optimism or expressed differing expectations about the direction of change from their contacts.

Labor Markets

Eleven Districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, while one District described a modest decline. Seven Districts noted that firms were hesitant to hire workers because of weaker demand or uncertainty. Moreover, contacts in two Districts reported an increase in layoffs, while contacts in multiple Districts reported reducing headcounts through attrition—encouraged, at times, by return-to-office policies and facilitated, at times, by greater automation, including new AI tools. In turn, most Districts mentioned an increase in the number of people looking for jobs. However, half of the Districts noted that contacts reported a reduction in the availability of immigrant labor, with New York, Richmond, St. Louis, and San Francisco highlighting its impact on the construction industry. Half of the Districts described modest growth in wages, while most of the others reported moderate growth. Two Districts noted little or no change in wages.

Prices

Ten Districts characterized price growth as moderate or modest. The other two Districts described strong input price growth that outpaced moderate or modest selling price growth. Nearly all Districts noted tariff-related price increases, with contacts from many Districts reporting that tariffs were especially impactful on the prices of inputs. Contacts in multiple Districts also reported rising prices for insurance, utilities, and technology services. While some firms reported passing through their entire cost increases to customers, some firms in nearly all Districts described at least some hesitancy in raising prices, citing customer price sensitivity, lack of pricing power, and fear of losing business. In some cases, as highlighted by Cleveland and Minneapolis, firms reported being under pressure to lower prices because of competition, despite facing increased input costs. Most Districts reported that their firms were expecting price increases to continue in the months ahead, with three of those Districts noting that the pace of price increases was expected to rise further.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2025 11:53:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:

Even with the recent weakness in house prices, it is important to note that there will NOT be a surge in foreclosures that could lead to cascading house price declines (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.

But it is still important to track delinquencies and foreclosures.
...
This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions based on the Q2 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile released last week. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.

The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) was up 15% YOY from $766 million in Q2 2024 to $852 million in Q2 2025. This is still historically extremely low.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for July; the employment report this Friday will be for August.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in July to 7.18 million from 7.36 million in June.

The number of job openings (black) were down 4% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 5% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 29, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates declined last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to its lowest level since April to 6.64 percent. However, that was not enough to spark more application activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance applications saw a small increase from the previous week, driven by FHA and VA refinance applications, but conventional refinances declined. The FHA rate is averaging about 30 basis points lower than the conventional rate in 2025, which has made those loans relatively more appealing to eligible borrowers. Purchase activity pulled back, after a four week run of increases, as slower homebuying activity led to declines in applications across the various loan types.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.64 percent from 6.69 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 17% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom, but remains very low.