by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2015 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Cool in January As Available Inventory Remains Subdued

Total existing-home sale1, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 4.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.82 million in January (lowest since last April at 4.75 million) from an upwardly-revised 5.07 million in December. Despite January’s decline, sales are higher by 3.2 percent than a year ago. ...

Total housing inventory at the end of January increased 0.5 percent to 1.87 million existing homes available for sale, but is 0.5 percent lower than a year ago (1.88 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace – up from 4.4 months in December.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in January (4.82 million SAAR) were 4.9% lower than last month, and were 3.2% above the January 2014 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.87 million in January from 1.86 million in December.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory decreased 0.5% year-over-year in January compared to January 2014.  

Months of supply was at 4.7 months in January.

This was below expectations of sales of 5.00 million.  For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low.    I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2015 08:36:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic growth picked up slightly in January

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to +0.13 in January from –0.07 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from December, and only one of the four categories made a negative contribution to the index in January.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to +0.33 in January from +0.34 in December. January’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests modest inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was above the historical trend in January (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2015 07:16:00 PM

There are ships everywhere at anchor outside of Long Beach and Los Angeles. It sounds like it will take a few months to clear the backlog (although this article says six to eight weeks). From Bloomberg: West Coast Ports Come Back to Life

The Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s busiest, handled 29 percent less cargo in January 2015 compared with January 2014, and volumes were down 19 percent in neighboring Long Beach, the second-busiest, according to statements from both ports.
...
It will take six to eight weeks for West Coast ports to recover from the cargo backlog, according to the Port of Oakland and the National Retail Federation, which represents stores that resorted to stockpiling seasonal merchandise in warehouses and shifting to East and Gulf coast ports.

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.00 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in December were at a 5.04 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.90 million SAAR.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for February.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of February 22, 2015

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are flat and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $50.39 per barrel and Brent at $60.22 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $103, and Brent was at $110 - so prices are down close to half year-over-year.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are up to $2.30 per gallon (down over $1.00 per gallon from a year ago).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2015 11:08:00 AM

The Port of Long Beach released container traffic statistics for January (the Port of Los Angeles hasn't released January data yet).

The Long Beach data showed a significant decline in port traffic due to the labor issues that were tentatively settled on Friday.

Note: There is usually a seasonal slowdown in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).  February traffic will be very slow this year, but March should be strong.

Click on graph for larger image.



Imports were down 23.5%  year-over-year in January, and exports were down 19.6% year-over-year.

This decline in traffic was primarily due to the ongoing labor negotiations.

by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2015 01:11:00 PM

The key economic reports this week are January new home sales on Wednesday, existing home sales on Monday, the second estimate of Q4 GDP on Friday, and Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide testimony to the Senate and House on Tuesday and Wednesday.

----- Monday, February 23rd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The consensus is for sales of 5.00 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in December were at a 5.04 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.90 million SAAR.

A key will be the reported year-over-year increase in inventory of homes for sale.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for February.

----- Tuesday, February 24th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. Although this is the December report, it is really a 3 month average of October, November and December prices.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the November 2014 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 4.7% year-over-year increase in the National Index for December. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.7% year-over-year in December, and for prices to increase 0.5% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for February. The consensus is for the index to decrease to 99.1 from 102.9.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, Washington, D.C.

----- Wednesday, February 25th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 471 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in January from 481 thousand in December.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the House Financial Services Committee, Washington, D.C.

----- Thursday, February 26th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 290 thousand from 283 thousand.

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for January. The consensus is for a 0.6% decrease in CPI, and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for December 2014. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.7% increase in durable goods orders.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for February.

----- Friday, February 27th -----
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2014 (second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q4, down from the advance estimate of 2.6%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February. The consensus is for a reading of 58.3, down from 59.4 in January.

9:55 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for February). The consensus is for a reading of 94.0, up from the preliminary reading of 93.6, but down from the December reading of 98.1.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in the index.

1:30 PM: Speech, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet, At the 2015 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, New York

by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2015 08:01:00 AM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Feb 21, 2015.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The OCC released its latest enforcement actions leading to eight removals from the Unofficial Problem Bank List. After the removals, the list stands at 378 institutions with assets of $117.9 billion. We updated asset figures with 2014q4 financials, which accounted for a $812 million of the $3.2 billion decline in assets this week. A year ago, the list held 578 institutions with assets of $193.0 billion.

The OCC terminated actions against Armed Forces Bank, National Association, Fort Leavenworth, KS ($1.7 billion); Academy Bank, National Association, Colorado Springs, CO ($325 million); Mission National Bank, San Francisco, CA ($177 million); Southern Commerce Bank, National Association, Tampa, FL ($70.2 million); The First National Bank of Sullivan, Sullivan, IL ($60 million); Olmsted National Bank, Rochester, MN ($54 million); SunBank, National Association, Phoenix, AZ ($32 million); and Armed Forces Bank of California, National Association, San Diego, CA ($17 million).

Next week, we anticipate the FDIC will provide an update on its enforcement action activity, industry results for the third quarter, and updated aggregate figures for their official problem bank list.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 10:15:00 PM

Some good news from the LA Times: Shipping lines and dockworkers reach deal, port shutdown averted

Shipping companies and the dockworkers union have reached a tentative deal on a new labor contract, union officials said Friday night, staving off a shutdown of 29 ports that would have choked off trade through the West Coast.
...
It will take weeks, if not months, just to clear the current backlog, port officials said.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 05:11:00 PM

There was an agreement today (pending some proposals on Monday) to extend the Greek bailout for four months.

My first reaction is that there seem to be two possible outcomes in four months:

1) The technocrats at the ECB / EU / IMF agree to change the target for the primary budget surplus. The current plan is for Greece to run a primary surplus of 3.0% in 2015 and 4.5% in 2016, however that assumed that the unemployment rate would peak at 14.8% (instead the unemployment rate increased to close to 28%), and that GDP would start increasing in 2012 - instead GDP kept falling - and Greece is now in a Great Depression size contraction.

Contractionary policy has been very contractionary!

It is amazing that Greece is even running a primary budget surplus with a collapsing economy. If the primary target isn't change, the depression will continue.  A little growth would help everyone, so easing the primary budget target is critical.

2) The Greeks will take the four months and ready the drachma printing presses.

Point 1 is possible, but the technocrats are the only hope for Greece, not the politicians.  See the following quote from German Finance minister Wolfgang Schauble in 2013:

"Nobody in Europe sees this contradiction between fiscal policy consolidation and growth,” Schauble said. “We have a growth-friendly process of consolidation, and we have sustainable growth, however you want to word it.”

Not everyone is blind to the obvious - some people in Europe see the obvious contradiction (just look at the data for Europe as a whole and Greece in particular).  Too many politicians can't (or won't) look at the data and change their minds.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 03:52:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the summary tables below for selected publicly-traded home builders.

The first table is for Q4.

This second and third tables are for Calendar Years 2014, 2013, and 2012.

	Net Orders			Settlements			Average Closing Price
Qtr. Ended:	12/14	12/13	% Chg	12/14	12/13	% Chg	12/14	12/13	% Chg
D.R. Horton	7,370	5,454	35.1%	7,973	6,188	28.8%	$281,036	263,542	6.6%
PulteGroup	3,232	3,214	0.6%	5,316	4,964	7.1%	$334,000	325,000	2.8%
NVR	2,713	2,631	3.1%	3,469	3,342	3.8%	$375,500	365,300	2.8%
The Ryland Group	1,547	1,428	8.3%	2,489	2,178	14.3%	$338,000	314,000	7.6%
Beazer Homes	966	895	7.9%	885	1,038	-14.7%	$295,600	279,300	5.8%
Standard Pacific	978	878	11.4%	1,475	1,343	9.8%	$491,000	446,000	10.1%
Meritage Homes	1,272	1,131	12.5%	1,863	1,468	26.9%	$369,000	363,000	1.7%
MDC Holdings	887	752	18.0%	1,242	1,252	-0.8%	$397,000	368,200	7.8%
M/I Homes	773	793	-2.5%	1,105	1,120	-1.3%	$322,000	292,000	10.3%
Total	19,738	17,176	14.9%	25,817	22,893	12.8%	$336,302	$321,436	4.6%

	Net Orders			Settlements			Average Closing Price $
Calendar Year	2014	2013	2012	2014	2013	2012	2014	2013	2012
D.R. Horton	31,625	25,315	22,513	30,455	25,161	19,954	276,296	255,646	228,395
PulteGroup	16,652	17,080	19,039	17,196	17,766	16,505	329,000	305,000	276,000
NVR	12,389	11,800	10,954	11,859	11,834	9,843	368,500	349,100	317,073
The Ryland Group	7,668	7,263	5,781	7,677	7,035	4,897	333,000	296,000	262,000
Beazer Homes	4,819	4,989	5,111	4,798	5,056	4,603	287,960	262,004	229,126
Standard Pacific	4,967	4,898	4,014	4,956	4,602	3,291	478,000	413,000	362,000
Meritage Homes	5,944	5,615	4,795	5,862	5,259	4,238	365,000	339,000	279,000
MDC Holdings	4,623	4,327	4,342	4,366	4,710	3,740	377,300	345,400	307,800
M/I Homes	3,663	3,787	3,020	3,721	3,472	2,765	313,000	286,000	264,000
Total	92,350	85,074	79,569	90,890	84,895	69,836	326,777	302,631	269,578

	Net Orders (% Change)		Settlements (% Change)		Average Closing Price (% Change)
Calendar Year	2014 vs. 2013	2013 vs. 2012	2014 vs 2013	2013 vs. 2012	2014 vs 2013	2013 vs. 2012
D.R. Horton	24.9%	12.4%	21.0%	26.1%	8.1%	11.9%
PulteGroup	-2.5%	-10.3%	-3.2%	7.6%	7.9%	10.5%
NVR	5.0%	7.7%	0.2%	20.2%	5.6%	10.1%
The Ryland Group	5.6%	25.6%	9.1%	43.7%	12.5%	13.0%
Beazer Homes	-3.4%	-2.4%	-5.1%	9.8%	9.9%	14.3%
Standard Pacific	1.4%	22.0%	7.7%	39.8%	15.7%	14.1%
Meritage Homes	5.9%	17.1%	11.5%	24.1%	7.7%	21.5%
MDC Holdings	6.8%	-0.3%	-7.3%	25.9%	9.2%	12.2%
M/I Homes	-3.3%	25.4%	7.2%	25.6%	9.4%	8.3%
Total	8.6%	6.9%	7.1%	21.6%	8.0%	12.3%

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 01:52:00 PM

Just an update: Some details have leaked out, although the text is not available yet. It appears there will be a four month extension of the loan agreement - not the program - and the Greek government will standstill for four months - with no additional austerity, and no new spending programs. This is all tentative and the details could be wrong.

Press conference here, possibly as soon as 2 PM ET.