by Bill McBride on 2/21/2015 01:11:00 PM
Saturday, February 21, 2015
The key economic reports this week are January new home sales on Wednesday, existing home sales on Monday, the second estimate of Q4 GDP on Friday, and Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide testimony to the Senate and House on Tuesday and Wednesday.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The consensus is for sales of 5.00 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in December were at a 5.04 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.90 million SAAR.
A key will be the reported year-over-year increase in inventory of homes for sale.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for February.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. Although this is the December report, it is really a 3 month average of October, November and December prices.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the November 2014 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 4.7% year-over-year increase in the National Index for December. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.7% year-over-year in December, and for prices to increase 0.5% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.
10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for February. The consensus is for the index to decrease to 99.1 from 102.9.
10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, Washington, D.C.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for January from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the December sales rate.
The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 471 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in January from 481 thousand in December.
10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the House Financial Services Committee, Washington, D.C.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 290 thousand from 283 thousand.
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for January. The consensus is for a 0.6% decrease in CPI, and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for December 2014. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.7% increase in durable goods orders.
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for February.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2014 (second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q4, down from the advance estimate of 2.6%.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February. The consensus is for a reading of 58.3, down from 59.4 in January.
9:55 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for February). The consensus is for a reading of 94.0, up from the preliminary reading of 93.6, but down from the December reading of 98.1.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in the index.
1:30 PM: Speech, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet, At the 2015 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, New York