Thursday, January 29, 2015

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in December

by Bill McBride on 1/29/2015 03:15:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for November were released Tuesday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - now including the National Index - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Expect Recent Trend of Sub-5% Annual Growth in Case-Shiller to Continue into 2015

The November S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data released [Tuesday] showed a slight uptick in the pace of national home value appreciation in the housing market, with annual growth in the U.S. National Index rising to 4.7 percent, from 4.6 percent in October.

Despite the modestly faster pace of growth, annual appreciation in home values as measured by SPCS has been less than 5 percent for the past three months. We anticipate this trend to continue as annual growth in home prices slows to more normal levels between 3 percent and 5 percent. Zillow predicts the U.S. National Index to rise 4.5 percent on an annual basis in December.

The 10- and 20-City Indices saw annual growth rates decline in November; the 10-City index rose 4.2 percent and the 20-City Index rose 4.4 percent – down from rates of 4.4 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, in October.

The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City index fell 0.2 percent from October to November, and we expect it to decrease 0.4 percent in December from November. We expect the same monthly decline in the 10-City Composite Index next month, falling 0.4 percent from November to December (NSA).

All forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on the November SPCS data release and the December 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released Jan. 22. Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for December will not be released until Tuesday, Feb. 24.
So the year-over-year change in the Case-Shiller index will probably slow in December.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
  Case-Shiller
Composite 10
Case-Shiller
Composite 20
Case-Shiller
National
NSASANSASANSASA
November
Actual YoY
4.2%4.2%4.3%4.3%4.7%4.7%
December
Forecast
YoY
3.8%3.8%4.0%4.0%4.5%4.5%
December
Forecast
MoM
-0.4%0.2%-0.4%0.3%0.0%0.5%