Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in November

by Bill McBride on 1/27/2015 09:05:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3 month average of September, October and November prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Price Gains Continue to Slow According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data released today for November 2014 shows a continued slowdown in home prices nationwide, but with price increases in nine cities. ... Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year growth rates decline in November compared to October. The 10-City Composite gained 4.2% year-over-year, down from 4.4% in October. The 20-City Composite gained 4.3% year-over-year, compared to 4.5% in October. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 4.7% annual gain in November 2014 versus 4.6% in October 2014.
The National and Composite Indices were both marginally negative in November. The 10 and 20-City Composites reported declines of -0.3% and -0.2%, while the National Index posted a decline of -0.1% for the month. Tampa led all cities in November with an increase of 0.8%. Chicago and Detroit offset those gains by reporting decreases of -1.1% and -0.9% respectively.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 17.4% from the peak, and up 0.7% in November (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 16.4% from the peak, and up 0.7% (SA) in November.

The National index is off 9.1% from the peak, and up 0.8% (SA) in November.  The National index is up 22.8% from the post-bubble low set in Dec 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.2% compared to November 2013.

The Composite 20 SA is up 4.3% year-over-year..

The National index SA is up 4.7% year-over-year.

Prices increased (SA) in all 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in November seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 11 of the 20 cities NSA)  Prices in Las Vegas are off 41.7% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs (SA).

This was close to the consensus forecast for a 4.6% YoY increase for the National index, and suggests a slight further slowdown in price increases. I'll have more on house prices later.