by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2025 10:00:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in July and a Comment on July Sales from Tom Lawler

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in July.

There were several key stories for July:

• Sales NSA are down YoY through July, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 2 1/2 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for July since 2016).

• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026)

Sales at 4.01 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were slightly above the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of July in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In July, sales in these markets were down 0.6% YoY NSA. Last month, in June, these same markets were also up 4.9% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in July were down 0.5% YoY NSA, so this sample is very close.

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was similar to the NSA data.
...
More local data coming in September for activity in August!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 22, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 19 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 25 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates inched higher for the second straight week, with the 30-year fixed-rate up to 6.69 percent. While this was not a significant increase, it was enough to cause a pullback in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in over a month, up 2 percent, and the average loan size increased to its highest level in two months at $433,400. Prospective buyers appear to be less sensitive to rates at these levels and are more active, bolstered by more inventory and cooling home-price growth in many parts of the country.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.69 percent from 6.68 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 25% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased after picking up a little recently with lower mortgage rates.

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2025 07:54:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2025 02:01:00 PM

Another update ... a few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.  This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.

3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through June 2025). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.  

The peak MoM increase in NSA prices this year was the smallest since 2008!

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.   

The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2025 09:53:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices). April closing prices include some contracts signed in February, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.26% (a -3.1% annual rate). This was the fourth consecutive MoM decrease.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in just 3 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 9.0% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 4.4% from the peak, and Denver down 3.7%.

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in June 2025

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.9% annual gain for June, down from a 2.3% rise in the previous month. The 10 City Composite increased 2.6%, down from a 3.4% rise in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 2.1%, down from a 2.8% increase in the previous month.

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a slight upward trend, rising 0.1%. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted drops of -0.1% and -0.04%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite Index posted a -0.1% decrease and the 20-City Composite Index fell -0.3%.
...
"June's results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year—the slowest pace since the summer of 2023," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "What makes this deceleration particularly noteworthy is the underlying pattern: The modest 1.9% annual gain masks significant volatility, with the first half of the period showing declining prices (-0.6%) that were more than offset by a 2.5% surge in the most recent six months, suggesting the housing market experienced a meaningful inflection point around the start of 2025.

"The geographic divergence has become the story's defining characteristic. New York's 7.0% annual gain stands as a stark outlier, leading all markets by a wide margin, followed by Chicago (6.1%) and Cleveland (4.5%). This represents a complete reversal of pandemic-era patterns, where traditional industrial centers now outpace former darlings like Phoenix (-0.1%), Tampa (-2.4%), and Dallas (-1.0%). Tampa's decline marks the worst performance among all tracked metros, while several Western markets including San Diego (-0.6%) and San Francisco (-2.0%) have joined the negative column—a remarkable transformation from their earlier boom years.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was down 0.1% in June (SA).  The Composite 20 index was down 0.3% (SA) in June.

The National index was down 0.3% (SA) in June.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.6% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 2.1% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 1.9% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 07:49:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher From Long-Term Lows

After last week's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, rates fell to their lowest levels since October 3rd, 2024, narrowly surpassing the recent long-term low seen on August 13th. Powell tacitly suggested a stronger possibility of a September Fed rate cut due to growing concerns about the labor market.

Now today, the market correctly mildly back in the other direction. The average lender's conventional 30yr fixed rates moved back up ever-so-slightly (roughly 0.02%), but remain essentially in line with 10-month lows. [30 year fixed 6.54%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for a 4.0% decrease in orders.

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June. The National index was up 2.3% in May and is expected to slower further in June.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for June. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 01:46:00 PM

From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Ease in July as Foreclosure Activity Edges Higher

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released its July 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. The data shows that U.S. mortgage performance remains remarkably strong compared to pre-pandemic norms, marked by delinquencies declining on an annual basis.

“If you are looking for signs of a faltering economy, you won’t find them in July’s mortgage performance data,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “New delinquency inflows were down -13% from June and -5% from the same time last year, with the national delinquency rate improving on an annual basis for the second straight month, breaking what had been a 13-month streak of consecutive increases.”

Key takeaways from the ICE First Look include:

• National delinquency rate: The delinquency rate fell by eight basis points (bps) in July to 3.27%, a 9-basis-point improvement year over year (YoY) and still 58 basis points below its 2019 levels.

• Serious delinquencies: Loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure held steady overall. Also, while serious delinquencies are up 30,000 YoY, it is the smallest annual increase since November, as the impacts from recent wildfires and last year’s hurricanes continue to fade.

• FHA delinquencies: FHA loans remain the primary driver of stress in the market. While FHA delinquencies ticked down by 5 basis points in July, they are still 15 basis points above year-ago levels and now account for the majority (52%) of serious delinquencies nationwide.

• Foreclosure activity: Foreclosure inventory rose 10% YoY, with starts increasing annually for eight straight months and foreclosure sales up in each of the past five months. Even so, the national foreclosure rate remains 35% below pre-pandemic norms.

• Prepayment activity: Prepayments edged up slightly to 0.67% in July on a modest improvement in rates and are up more than 12% from a year ago.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 10:44:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July

Brief excerpt:

The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 652 thousand. The previous three months were revised up.
...
The next graph shows new home sales for 2024 and 2025 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in July 2025 were down 8.2% from July 2024.

New home sales, seasonally adjusted, have been down year-over-year for 7 consecutive months.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2025 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 652 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up.

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 rate of 656,000, and is 8.2 percent below the July 2024 rate of 710,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply was unchanged in July at 9.2 months from 9.2 months in June.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July 2025 was 499,000. This is 0.6 percent below the June 2025 estimate of 502,000, and is 7.3 percent above the July 2024 estimate of 465,000.

This represents a supply of 9.2 months at the current sales rate. The months' supply is virtually unchanged from the June 2025 estimate of 9.2 months, and is 16.5 percent above the July 2024 estimate of 7.9 months."

Sales were above expectations of 630 thousand SAAR and sales for the three previous months were revised up. I'll have more later today.