by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2012 02:23:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

The US Census Bureau estimated that new SF home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 350,000 in June, down 8.4% from May’s upwardly-revised (to 382,000 from 350,000) pace. March and April sales were also revised upward. Current seasonally adjusted sales estimates are higher than the originally-reported estimates for each of the last eight months (October 2011 – May 2012). In the past, turning points in housing/home sales have often been accompanied by strings of either upward (when sales are rising) or downward (when sales are falling) revisions in Census’ new SF home sales estimates.

Long String of Upward Revisions in New SF Sales (SAAR, 000's)
	First Reported	Latest Estimate
Oct-11	307	314
Nov-11	315	327
Dec-11	307	339
Jan-12	311	339
Feb-12	313	366
Mar-12	328	352
Apr-12	343	358
May-12	369	382
Jun-12	350

According to today’s report, seasonally adjusted sales in the Northeast plunged by 60% in June, fell by 8.6% in the South, increased by 2.1% in the West, and jumped by 14.6% in the Midwest. Census does not report sales estimates for individual states, noting that its sample size is too small to produce reliable state estimates. Bad weather at the end of the month possibly impacted sales in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic part of the South.

Census also estimated that the number of new SF homes for sale at the end of June was 144,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 0.7% from May’s downwardly-revised estimate but down 13.3% from a year ago.

Tomorrow three publicly-traded home builders -- Pulte Group (#2), Standard Pacific (#13), and M/I Homes report operating results for the quarter ending in June, while D.R. Horton (#1) reports on Friday.

Earlier:
• New Home Sales declined in June to 350,000 Annual Rate
• Some comments on New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
• New Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2012 12:51:00 PM

Think about this ... if new home sales had been at expectations of 370,000 SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate), and there had been no revisions to the previous months sales, sales would have averaged 356,000 SAAR for the first six months of the year.

Instead sales came in below expectations for June, but all the revisions to previous months were up, and sales averaged 358,000 SAAR in the first half of 2012.

Of course the reporting focused on the most recent month, but that is misleading. With the upward revisions, sales are a little higher than expected over the first half of 2012. And it is important to note that sales are being revised up every month, and based on the recent trend, June will probably be revised up too. The report this morning was below expectations, it was still fairly solid.

Note: Long term readers will remember that every revision was down in 2006, and each "upside surprise" in the new home sales report was revised away. Now the opposite is happening.

Another thought: In 2011, there were 306,000 new home sales. At the first half 2012 sales rate of 358,000, sales will be up 17% in 2012. A recovery is NOT the level of sales, but the change from the previous period. Clearly new home sales have bottomed and are starting to recover.

Here is a very unfortunate headline from CNBC: Home Sales Disappoint Twice

Sales of newly built homes fell hard in June, despite newfound optimism in the housing recovery, especially among the home builders themselves.
...
This is the second miss for housing in the same month. Sales of existing homes fell as well, despite expectations for a gain.

Actually both reports were fairly solid.

As I've pointed out before, the key number in the existing home sales report is not sales, but inventory. It is visible inventory that impacts prices (although the "shadow" inventory will keep prices from rising). Since existing home inventory was down again in June, this was a positive report (the number of existing home sales is related to commissions, but otherwise existing home sales barely impact GDP).

For the new home sales report, the key number is sales. As I noted earlier, sales for June were below expectations, but sales for the first six months were slightly above expectations. So I wasn't disappointed in other report - and I think the CNBC headline was wrong - twice!

Here is an update to the distressing gap graph.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This "distressing gap" graph that shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through June. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship has been fairly steady back to the '60s.

Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales. The flood of distressed sales has kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders haven't been able to compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

Flat or declining existing home sales is likely (as the number of distressed sales decline), while new home sales will sluggishly increase. That will eventually close this gap, but it will probably take a number of years.

Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.

Earlier:
• New Home Sales declined in June to 350,000 Annual Rate
• New Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2012 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 350 thousand. This was down from a revised 382 thousand SAAR in May (revised up from 369 thousand). Sales in March and April were revised up too.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales of new single-family houses in June 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 350,000 ... This is 8.4 percent below the revised May rate of 382,000, but is 15.1 percent above the June 2011 estimate of 304,000.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

Months of supply increased to 4.9 in June from 4.5 in May.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 144,000. This represents a supply of 4.9 months at the current sales rate.

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale was at a record low 41,000 units in June. The combined total of completed and under construction is at the lowest level since this series started.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In June 2012 (red column), 33 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year only 28 thousand homes were sold in June. This was the third weakest June since this data has been tracked. The high for June was 115 thousand in 2005.

Even though sales are still very low, new home sales have clearly bottomed. New home sales have averaged 358 thousand SAAR over the first 6 months of 2012, after averaging under 300 thousand for the previous 18 months. All of the recent revisions have been up too.

So even though sales in June were below the consensus forecast of 370,000, this was still a fairly solid report given the upward revisions to previous months. Based on recent revisions, sales in June will probably be revised up too.
New Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2012 07:01:00 AM

From the MBA: As Low Rate Environment Persists, Refinance Applications Reach Highest Level Since 2009 in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week to its highest level since April 19, 2009. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier to its lowest level since June 22, 2012.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) remained unchanged at 3.74 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, with points decreasing to 0.43 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. The purchase index has been mostly moving sideways over the last two years.

Note: Yesterday Zillow reported record low mortgage rates in their survey: "30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow(R) Mortgage Marketplace is currently 3.35 percent, down seven basis points from 3.42 percent at the same time last week."

The second graph shows the refinance index.

The refinance index is at the highest level since 2009.

This increase in refinance activity is probably a result of both record low mortgage rates and HARP activity.

by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2012 09:28:00 PM

Perhaps a little good housing news on Wednesday, but first, on Europe from Tim Duy: Is There Even a Panic Button in Europe?

I didn't think it was possible, but my confidence in the ability of European policymakers to pull the Continent out of crisis continues to fall. This is saying a lot because I had virtually no confidence to begin with.
...
The Greeks were never given a bailout plan that had any hope of success.
...
Whether or not Greece can be forced from the Euro with little impact elsewhere remains to be seen. I doubt we will need to wait much longer to learn the outcome of Grexit. But the devastating train that is the debt crisis keeps rolling right along, currently crashing through Spain's economy.

And make no mistake, European policymakers have learned nothing from the Greek experience. One gets the sense that policymakers think the prescription was correct, but that the patient was simply unwilling to take the medicine. Where Greece failed, Spain will succeed ...

Europe is still getting "Schäuble'd" as policymakers continue to repeat the same mistakes. Oh well, the beatings will continue until morale improves.

On Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications and refinance indexes. I expect record low mortgage rates and more refinance activity.


• At 10:00 AM, the New Home Sales report for June is scheduled to be released by the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 370 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in June from 369 thousand in May.

by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2012 04:34:00 PM

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Sees Action if Growth Doesn't Pick Up Soon

Federal Reserve officials, impatient with the economy's sluggish growth and high unemployment, are moving closer to taking new steps to spur activity and hiring.

Since their June policy meeting, officials have made clear—in interviews, speeches and testimony to Congress—that they find the current state of the economy unacceptable. Many officials appear increasingly inclined to move unless they see evidence soon that activity is picking up on its own.

Amid the recent wave of disappointing economic news, conversation inside the Fed has turned more intensely toward the questions of how and when to move. Central-bank officials could take new steps at their meeting next week, July 31 and Aug. 1, though they might wait until their September meeting to accumulate more information on the pace of growth and job gains before deciding whether to act. ... There are several reasons why Fed officials might wait for their September meeting to decide whether to proceed. By then they will have seen two more monthly unemployment reports and two more months of data on output, spending and investment. Fed officials update their economic projections at the September meeting and Mr. Bernanke holds his a quarterly news conference after, which would give him an opportunity to publicly explain the Fed's thinking.
...
A new round of bond-buying would be politically controversial so close to the November presidential election. ... Another option is a change in the Fed's public communication about its plans.

There are arguments for waiting until September (more data, updated projections), but I think there is a reasonable chance they will move on August 1st since their current projections are already unacceptable - and the data has been mostly disappointing since their last meeting.

The Q2 GDP report to be released on Friday will be an important piece of data - not just the Q2 growth rate, but the annual revisions. If GDP is revised down, then that would suggest a larger "output gap" - and that would probably influence many FOMC members to vote for more accommodation now.

by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2012 01:14:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for June 2012. In the past month, the indexes increased in 30 states, decreased in nine states, and remained stable in 11 states, for a one-month diffusion index of 42. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in nine states, and remained stable in two states, for a three-month diffusion index of 60.

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In June, 35 states had increasing activity, unchanged from May. The last two months have been weak following eight months of widespread growth geographically. The number of states with increasing activity is at the lowest level since June of last year.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession.

And the map was all green just just a couple of months ago.

Now there are a number of red states.

by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2012 10:14:00 AM

• From the FHFA: House Price Index Up 0.8 Percent in May

U.S. house prices rose 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from April to May, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. ... For the 12 months ending in May of 2012, U.S. prices rose 3.7 percent. The U.S. index is 17.0 percent below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the May 2004 index level.

The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses with mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

This is GSE loans only, and these loans have performed better than the non-GSE loans.

• From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Contracted in July; Manufacturers' Optimism Waned

The pullback in manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region deepened in July, after edging lower in June, according to the Richmond Fed's latest seasonally adjusted survey. The index of overall activity was pushed lower as shipments and new orders declined further into negative territory. Employment remained in positive territory, but grew at a pace below June's rate. Other indicators also suggested additional softness.
...
In July, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — fell sixteen points to −17 from June's reading of −1. Among the index's components, shipments declined twenty-three points to −23, new orders dropped eighteen points to end at −25, and the jobs index moved down seven points to 1.

• Comments from UPS (ht Brian):

Global trade is lagging GDP growth currently. Only 2nd time in last 10 years that this has happened. Think this is temporary.

They see US GDP growth at 1% in 2nd half ... ”we think current 2H econ forecasts are too high”

Non-US domestic volumes down 3.2%. Southern Europe had double digit declines

US outlook see rev up 1-2%, see B2B deteriorating further – weaker US outlook is primary driver behind reduced outlook “sees concerning trends in US”

by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2012 09:07:00 AM

From Markit: PMI signals slowest manufacturing expansion since December 2010

The July Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) indicated the weakest improvement in U.S. manufacturing sector business conditions in 19 months, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading which is based on around 85% of usual monthly replies. At 51.8, down from 52.5 in June, the headline index was the second-lowest since the manufacturing recovery was first signalled by the PMI in late-2009 (only December 2010 saw a weaker PMI reading).

PMI index readings above 50.0 signal an increase or improvement on the prior month, while readings below 50.0 indicate a decrease.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:

“The U.S. manufacturing sector is clearly struggling under the pressure from falling exports ... Reassuringly, domestic demand appears to be showing ongoing signs of resilience, encouraging firms to take on more staff.

“Overall, the third quarter is so far shaping up to be worse than the second quarter in terms of growth, which is a growing concern for policymakers. Some comfort can be drawn from the fall in prices, which should help keep inflation at bay and increase the scope for further stimulus. However, falling prices are also a worrying sign of just how much demand has weakened in recent weeks.”

This suggests another weak ISM PMI (due next week).

by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2012 12:14:00 AM

From Zillow: U.S. Home Values Post First Annual Increase In Nearly Five Years

Home values in the United States have reached a bottom. The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose on an annual basis for the first time since 2007, increasing 0.2 percent year-over-year to $149,300, according to Zillow’s second quarter Real Estate Market Reports. Values have risen for four consecutive months.
...
“After four months with rising home values and increasingly positive forecast data, it seems clear that the country has hit a bottom in home values,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “The housing recovery is holding together despite lower-than-expected job growth, indicating that it has some organic strength of its own.

“Of course, there is still some risk as we look down the foreclosure pipeline and see foreclosure starts picking up. This will translate into more homes on the market by the end of the year, but we think demand will rise to absorb that, particularly in markets where there are acute inventory shortages now. Looking forward, we expect home values to remain relatively flat as the market works through a backlog of foreclosures and high rates of negative equity.”