Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Lawler on New Home Sales and Revisions

by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2012 02:23:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

The US Census Bureau estimated that new SF home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 350,000 in June, down 8.4% from May’s upwardly-revised (to 382,000 from 350,000) pace. March and April sales were also revised upward. Current seasonally adjusted sales estimates are higher than the originally-reported estimates for each of the last eight months (October 2011 – May 2012). In the past, turning points in housing/home sales have often been accompanied by strings of either upward (when sales are rising) or downward (when sales are falling) revisions in Census’ new SF home sales estimates.

Long String of Upward Revisions in New SF Sales (SAAR, 000's)
First ReportedLatest Estimate
Oct-11307314
Nov-11315327
Dec-11307339
Jan-12311339
Feb-12313366
Mar-12328352
Apr-12343358
May-12369382
Jun-12350

According to today’s report, seasonally adjusted sales in the Northeast plunged by 60% in June, fell by 8.6% in the South, increased by 2.1% in the West, and jumped by 14.6% in the Midwest. Census does not report sales estimates for individual states, noting that its sample size is too small to produce reliable state estimates. Bad weather at the end of the month possibly impacted sales in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic part of the South.

Census also estimated that the number of new SF homes for sale at the end of June was 144,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 0.7% from May’s downwardly-revised estimate but down 13.3% from a year ago.

Tomorrow three publicly-traded home builders -- Pulte Group (#2), Standard Pacific (#13), and M/I Homes report operating results for the quarter ending in June, while D.R. Horton (#1) reports on Friday.

Earlier:
New Home Sales declined in June to 350,000 Annual Rate
Some comments on New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
New Home Sales graphs