by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2011 11:40:00 AM

Still talking ...

From the WaPo: Banks to meet with state, federal officials over foreclosure deal

State and federal officials on Friday were again to meet with representatives of the nation’s largest banks, trying to finalize a much-anticipated settlement over shoddy foreclosure practices ... the session in Washington would center around how broad a release from future liability banks should receive in exchange for agreeing to overhaul their mortgage servicing practices and paying billions of dollars in penalties.
...
State and federal officials are hoping to extract about $20 billion in collective penalties from the banks involved, with Bank of America footing the largest share, followed by J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo. The final amount, however, likely will depend on the scope of the legal release.

There are a large number of seriously delinquent mortgage loans in limbo waiting for this settlement. According to LPS, at the end of August there were about 1.87 million loans seriously delinquent and another 2.15 million loans in the foreclosure process. This is only down slightly from a year ago when 4.4 million loans were seriously delinquent or in-foreclosure. Once the settlement is reached, the pace of foreclosures will pick up sharply.

The key issue is the release from future liabilities. Obviously the banks would like the release to be very broad, and the State AGs would like the release to be very narrow.

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2011 08:29:00 AM

Just another day ...

From the NY Times: With a Joint Statement, the Leading Economies Try to Reassure World Markets

The world’s major economies released an unexpected joint statement Thursday night ...

“We are committed to supporting growth, implementing credible fiscal consolidation plans, and ensuring strong sustainable growth,” said the communiqué from the Group of 20 nations. “This will require a collective and bold action plan with everyone doing their part.”

From the WSJ: Moody's Downgrades 8 Greek Banks

Moody's Investors Service Inc. downgraded eight Greek banks by two notches Friday, citing expected losses due to their holdings of Greek government bonds, increasing concerns about the impact of a recession as well as fragile liquidity and funding positions.

"The government faces significant solvency challenges and historical experience shows that small sovereign debt restructurings have often been followed by larger sovereign defaults," Moody's warned.

From Reuters: Greek default talk gathers pace

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos was quoted by two newspapers as saying an orderly default with a 50 percent haircut for bondholders was one of three possible scenarios for resolving the heavily indebted euro zone nation's fiscal woes.

And the denial: Greece Denies Reports on Default Scenarios

Given the history of the European financial crisis, denials are frequently taken as confirmation ...

The Greek 2 year yield was up to 67%. The Greek 1 year yield is at 134%.

The Portuguese 2 year yield is up to 17.6% (rising quickly) and the Irish 2 year yield was down to 9.05%.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2011 08:19:00 PM

Here is a new study released today of mortgage originations in 2010. From the Federal Reserve: The Mortgage Market in 2010: Highlights from the Data Reported under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act

Back in 2003, about 35.5% of all homeowners refinanced. In 2010 only 10.7% of homeowners refinanced. On page 62, the study provides a table by FICO score, year of origination, and states with steep house price declines compared to all other states ("Steepest declines" consists of the five states with the steepest declines in house prices from 2006 to 2009: Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan, and Nevada; "other" consists of all remaining states.) Only a few borrowers with low FICO scores refinanced in 2010, and the rates for refinancing were lower in the five states than in the other states.

This is important - although we may see sub 4% conforming 30 year fixed rate mortgages soon, many borrowers will not be able to refinance.

I've excerpted a few key findings with highlights.

• Mortgage originations declined between 2009 and 2010 in the HMDA data from just under 9 million loans to fewer than 8 million loans. Most significant was the decline in the number of refinance loans despite historically low baseline mortgage interest rates throughout the year. Home-purchase loans also declined, but less so than the decline in refinance lending.

• We draw on data from a national credit bureau to highlight the importance of house price declines and changes in underwriting relative to earlier in the decade for refinance activity during 2010. We estimate that, in the absence of home equity problems and underwriting changes, roughly 2.3 million first-lien owner-occupant refinance loans would have been made during 2010 on top of the 4.5 million such loans that were actually originated.

• A sharp drop in home-purchase lending activity occurred in the middle of 2010, right alongside the June closing deadline (although the deadline was retroactively extended to September). The ending of this program during 2010 may help explain the decline in the incidence of home-purchase lending to lower-income borrowers between the first and second halves of the year.

• Home-purchase lending in highly distressed census tracts identified by the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) was 75 percent lower in 2010 than it had been in these same tracts in 2005. This decline was notably larger than that experienced in other tracts, and appears to primarily reflect a much sharper decrease in lending to higher-income borrowers in the highly distressed neighborhoods.

• National single-family home loan limits on both FHA loans and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae purchases are scheduled to fall on October 1, 2011. Analysis of the 2010 HMDA data suggests that the number of loans affected by these limit changes is likely to be small. For example, about 1.3 percent of both the 2010 home-purchase and refinance loans fell into a size range affected by the proposed limit changes for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Although the affected number of loans is small relative to the total number of loans, the analysis also shows that the number is large relative to the current jumbo loan market. How easily the private market would be able to absorb this potentially large increase in the market for jumbo loans is unclear.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2011 04:55:00 PM

The Case-Shiller House Price index for July will be released Tuesday. Here are a few other indexes:

• FNC: Home Prices Begin to Lose Momentum; Up 0.1% in July

Based on the latest data on non-distressed home sales (existing and new homes), FNC’s Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that single-family home prices were up slightly in July to a seasonally unadjusted rate of 0.1%, following a strong performance in June that saw a 1.1% increase in a single month. As a gauge of underlying home value, the RPI excludes sales of foreclosed homes, which are often sold with large price discounts due to poor property conditions.

The FNC index tables for three composite indexes and 30 cities are here.

• CoreLogic reported earlier this month for July: Home Price Index increased 0.8% in July

July Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. increased for the fourth consecutive month, inching up 0.8 percent on a month-over-month basis.

• The FHFA reported this morning: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.8 Percent in July

• From RadarLogic today As We Pass the Seasonal Peak in Home Prices, Signs Point to Trouble Ahead

In July, the 25-MSA RPX Composite price remained essentially unchanged on a month-over-month basis, but declined year over year for the 13th month in a row.
...
Last month, we predicted that the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City composite for June 2011 would be about 156 and the 20-City composite would be roughly 142. In fact, the 10-City composite was 154.88 and the 20-City composite was 141.30.

This month, we expect the S&P/Case-Shiller composite indices to increase about one percent month over month, but to remain about three percent below their July 2010 levels. The July 2011 10-City composite index will be about 156, and the 20-City index will be roughly 143.

The consensus is that prices increased in July, but that prices will start falling again soon.

And there was another big move in the stock market today.

Here is a graph (click on graph for larger image) from Doug Short.

Pretty wild swings over the last couple of months!

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2011 03:09:00 PM

Update: from Bloomberg: Europe Officials Weigh Forming Crisis ‘Firewall’

European officials said governments may leverage the region’s bailout program to erect a “firewall” around the sovereign debt crisis once a revamp of the fund is completed.

From the Financial Times: EU set to speed recapitalisation of 16 banks

European officials look set to speed up plans to recapitalise the 16 banks that came close to failing last summer’s pan-EU stress tests as part of a co-ordinated effort to reassure the markets about the strength of the 27-nation bloc’s banking sector.

A senior French official said the 16 banks regarded to be close to the threshold would now have to seek new funds immediately. Although there has been widespread speculation that French banks are seeking more capital, none is on the list.
excerpt with permission

From Bloomberg: Greece Speeds Budget Cuts to Ensure Aid

Measures announced yesterday following two rounds of talks with the European Union and the IMF include: a 20 percent cut in pensions of more than 1,200 euros ($1,650) a month, according to a government statement; pensions paid to those younger than 55 will be shaved by 40 percent for the amount exceeding 1,000 euros and wages will be lowered for 30,000 state employees.

With an 8 billion-euro aid payment in the balance, Greek creditors are also in the final stages of negotiating a bond exchange intended to reduce the country’s debt load of about 350 billion euros.

The Greek 2 year yield was up to 66.5%. The Greek 1 year yield is at 135%.

The Portuguese 2 year yield is up to 17.5% (rising quickly) and the Irish 2 year yield was down to 9.1%.

The Italian 10 year yield was down slightly to 5.7%.

Here are the links for bond yields for several countries (source: Bloomberg):

Greece	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Portugal	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Ireland	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Spain	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Italy	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Belgium	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
France	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Germany	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2011 11:52:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Commercial Real Estate Prices in U.S. Increased 5% in July, Moody’s Says

The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index advanced 5 percent from June. It’s up 1.2 percent from a year earlier and almost 13 percent from its post-peak low in April, the New York- based company said in a report today.

Demand was driven by middle-market properties that aren’t considered major assets.
...
“This month’s gain is more a continuation of the bottoming process than a harbinger of recovery,” the company said in the report. “Slow job growth will crimp expectations for the absorption of vacant space and for rent increases, which in turn will constrain near term price increases.”

Below is a comparison of the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite 20 index. Beware of the "Real" in the title - this index is not inflation adjusted.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

CRE prices only go back to December 2000. The Case-Shiller Composite 20 residential index is in blue (with Dec 2000 set to 1.0 to line up the indexes).

According to Moody's, CRE prices are up 1.2% from a year ago and down about 42% from the peak in 2007. Some of this increase was probably seasonal - also this index is very volatile because there are relatively few transactions. Also, this report was for July, and the index will probably be weaker in August after the debt ceiling debate and the renewed fears about Europe.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2011 10:21:00 AM

• From Freddie Mac: Fixed-Rate Mortgages Hold Steady, Remain Near Record Lows

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing fixed-rate mortgages changing little amid sluggish economic, mixed housing data, and ongoing concerns over the European debt markets. The 30-year fixed remained unchanged at 4.09 percent, while the 15-year fixed dropped a single basis point to 3.29 percent, marking a new record low.

There will be new record low mortgage rates reported next week.

• From MarketWatch: August economic indicators signal weak growth

The economy should exhibit "continued weak growth" through the fall and winter, the Conference Board said Thursday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators grew 0.3% in August, compared with a 0.1% gain expected by economists polled by MarketWatch. "There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could put downward pressure on demand and business activity, causing the economy to potentially dip into recession," said Ken Goldstein, a Conference Board economist ...

• From the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.8 Percent in July

U.S. house prices rose 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from June to July, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 0.9 percent increase in June was revised to a 0.7 percent increase. For the 12 months ending in July, U.S. prices fell 3.3 percent.

This is the GSE only index. The FHFA “expanded-data” House Price Index (HPI) that covers all homes is only released Quarterly. There will be more house price data released soon - and Case-Shiller next Tuesday.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2011 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending September 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 423,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 432,000. The 4-week moving average was 421,000, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 420,500.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000 (there is a longer term graph in graph gallery).

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week to 421,000.

The 4-week average has been increasing recently and this is the highest level since early July.

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2011 08:46:00 PM

• From reader Soylent Green is People (mortgage broker):

"Refinance boom will be much larger than 2009 when the Feds remove the 125% LTV cap on HARP loans. There are so many whispers about it I can hardly hear myself think."

• From Tom Petruno at the LA Times: Mortgage rates expected to slide on new Fed move

The shift back to mortgage bonds could bring $20 billion or more a month of Fed buying power into that market, said Walter Schmidt, a bond market analyst at FTN Financial in Chicago.
...
“It’s absolutely clear they’re targeting mortgages,” Keith Gumbinger, a principal at mortgage data firm HSH Associates in Pompton Plains, N.Y., said of the Fed.
...
The 4% level is a psychological barrier for the market, but “I think we can breach that” soon, Schmidt said.

• An update to the widely quoted Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff paper from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis: This Time is Different, An Update

I have recreated and updated some of Ms Reinhart and Mr Rogoff’s work. Specifically, what follows (PDF – full version) is based on their draft paper for an American Economic Association presentation in January 2009 “The Aftermath of Financial Crises.“

In order to not bury the lede, first up is a quick summary of the U.S.’ current experience relative to historical financial crises, followed later by graphs for each individual measure.

All told, the recent U.S. financial crisis looks very similar to the historical crises as detailed by Reinhart and Rogoff – just your “garden variety, severe financial crisis” if you will. Across each of the five measures discussed in the Aftermath paper, the current U.S. experience is of the same magnitude

See the post for several tables and graphs.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in August: 5.0 million SAAR, 8.5 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales: Comments and NSA Graph
• Will there be another Refinance Boom?
• AIA: Architecture Billings Index Turns Positive
• Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2011 04:55:00 PM

First, one of the changes in the FOMC statement was the assessment of "downside risks". The August phrase "downside risks to the economic outlook have increased" was changed to "there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets." (emphasis added). Now the risks are "significant".

The Ten year Treasury yield declined following the FOMC announcement today to 1.875% - another record low. The Fed will not extend maturities, but the Fed will also "reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities", and that will probably push mortgage rates down.

A 3 handle for a conforming 30 year fixed rate mortgage is very possible. As of Sept 15, the 30 year fixed rate was at 4.09% for conforming loans according to the Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.

Here are a couple of graphs - the first comparing 30 year conforming mortgage rates to the MBA Refinance index (on a monthly basis), and the 2nd graph is weekly comparing the Refinance index to the Ten Year yield.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the MBA's refinance index (monthly average) and the the 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.

The Freddie Mac survey started in 1971. Mortgage rates are currently at a record low for the last 40 years and will probably fall further.

It usually takes around a 50 bps decline from the previous mortgage rate low to get a huge refinance boom - and rates might not fall that far - but there should be an increase in refinance activity over the next few weeks. Note: 30 year conforming mortgage rates were at 4.23% in October 2010.

The second graph compares refinance activity to the ten year yield.

The ten year yield is below the level during the financial crisis.

My guess is we see 30 year mortgage rates under 4% and a significant pickup in mortgage refinance activity - although probably not the level of refinance activity that happened in 2003 or 2009.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in August: 5.0 million SAAR, 8.5 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales: Comments and NSA Graph
• Existing Home Sales graphs