by Bill McBride on 9/21/2011 10:00:00 AM
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million in August from an upwardly revised 4.67 million in July, and are 18.6 percent higher than the 4.24 million unit level in August 2010.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply4 at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in July
This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.
Sales in August 2011 (5.03 million SAAR) were 7.7% higher than last month, and were 18.6% above the August 2010 rate (depressed in Aug 2010 following expiration of tax credit).
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.
According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.58 million in August from 3.69 million in July.
The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Inventory decreased 13.1% year-over-year in August from August 2010. This is the seventh consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory.
Months of supply decreased to 8.5 months in August, down from 9.5 months in July. This is much higher than normal. These sales numbers were well above the consensus, but just slightly above Lawler's forecast using the NAR method.
I'll have more soon ...
Posted by Bill McBride on 9/21/2011 10:00:00 AM