by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2011 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings in December was 3.1 million, which was little changed from 3.2 million in November. Since the most recent series trough in July 2009, the level of job openings has risen by 0.7 million, or 31 percent.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Unfortunately this is a new series and only started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for December, the most recent employment report was for January.

Click on graph for larger image in graphics gallery.

Notice that hires (purple) and total separations (red and blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. When the purple line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Note: The temporary decennial Census hiring and layoffs distorted this series last summer.

In December, about 4.162 million people lost (or left) their jobs, and 4.184 million were hired (this is the labor turnover in the economy) adding 20 thousand total jobs.

Even with the decline in December, job openings (yellow) are up significantly over the last year.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2011 08:02:00 AM

From National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - Up Modestly

The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism rose 1.5 points in January, a modest increase, opening the new year with a reading of 94.1. The slight overall uptick in optimism might have been higher, but was blunted by small business owners’ skepticism about the future and continued hesitancy to spend and hire. Weak sales is still the most frequently cited top business problem.
...
“Manufacturing and exporting are leading the recovery—industries and activities that are not labor intensive—while construction, an industry historically dominated by small firms, remains depressed,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 94.1 in January from 92.6 in December.

Although still fairly low, this is the highest level for the index since December 2007.

The second graph shows the net hiring plans over the next three months.

Hiring plans decreased slightly in January but are still positive. According to NFIB: "Over the next three months, 12 percent plan to increase employment (up 2 points), and 8 percent plan to reduce their workforce (down 1 point), yielding a seasonally adjusted net 3 percent of owners planning to create new jobs—a 3 point loss from December."

Weak sales is still the top business problem:

Only 3 percent reported financing as their top business problem, down 2 points from December. Twenty-seven percent of the owners reported that weak sales continued to be their top business problem (down 6 points) in the last month, followed by 19 percent citing taxes and 17 percent government regulations and red tape (taxes that consume capital and entrepreneurial time).

The recovery is sluggish for this index (probably because of the high concentration of real estate related companies), but this is the highest level for the optimism index since December 2007.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2011 09:27:00 PM

From Mitra Kalita at the WSJ: Cash Buyers Lift Housing

Cash buyers represented more than half of all transactions in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area last year ... In the fourth quarter of 2006, they represented just 13% of deals.
...
The percentage of buyers in Phoenix paying cash hit 42% in 2010—more than triple the rate in 2008 ... Nationally, 28% of sales were all-cash transactions last year, according to the National Association of Realtors. The rate was 14% in October 2008 ...

This is a quite an increase in cash buyers. Most of the cash transactions are at the low end - and are frequently investors - although the article mentioned one buyer paying cash for $1+ million properties.

The good news is these buyers won't ever have negative equity!

Note: The MBA mortgage index is suggesting weak home sales over the next couple of months, but obviously that index doesn't capture this increase in cash buyers.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2011 06:10:00 PM

This morning I posted some data and analysis from economist Tom Lawler based on the 2010 Census: Lawler: Housing Vacancy Survey appears to massively overstate number of vacant housing units.

Lawler's key point was that when compared to the Census 2010 data, the Housing Vacancy Survey (that most analysts use) "massively overstates" the number of vacant housing units in these four states (and probably nationally).

Note: The Census bureau has released data for only four states so far, and will release data for all 50 states by April 1st.

Here is another question: At the current rate of population growth, how long will it take to lower the vacancy rate back to the Census 2000 level?

	Louisiana	Mississippi	New Jersey	Virginia
Percent Excess Housing Units compared to Census 2000	1.7%	2.6%	2.1%	2.1%
Excess Housing Units	33,405	33,143	74,625	70,664
Population Needed to Absorb at current people per household ratio	87,618	88,140	204,113	185,004
Years to absorb at current rate of population growth	13.6	7.2	5.4	2.0

The above table provides the calculation. Note: This assumes that the people per household in each state will remain the same.

Of course Louisiana, and to some extent Mississippi, are special cases because of hurricane Katrina. The population in both states increased slowly over the last decade - and at that rate of population growth it will take many years to absorb the excess vacant units.

In New Jersey it will take 5.4 years to absorb the excess, and in Virginia (a fast growing state over the last decade) it will still take 2.0 years.

Of course the number of people per household could decline or the population could grow quicker over the next few years - but this suggests there is still a large excess inventory of vacant housing units in these states. This is one of the calculations I'll be looking at as the Census 2010 data is released.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2011 03:00:00 PM

The Federal Reserve reports:

Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter. Revolving credit declined at an annual rate of 2-3/4 percent,
and nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent. In December, consumer credit increased 3 percent at an annual rate.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows consumer credit since 1978. The amounts are nominal (not inflation adjusted).

Revolving credit (credit card debt) is off 17.8% from the peak. Non-revolving debt (auto, furniture, and other loans) is now slightly above the old peak. Note: Consumer credit does not include real estate debt.

Both revolving and non-revolving credit were up slightly in December. This was the first increase in revolving credit since August 2008 following 27 consecutive months of declines. This fits with the recent Senior Loan Officer survey that showed:

Banks again reported an increased willingness to make consumer installment loans, and a small net fraction of respondents reported easing standards for approving consumer credit card applications.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2011 11:48:00 AM

LPS Applied Analytics released their December Mortgage Performance data. According to LPS:

• The average loan in foreclosure has been delinquent a record 507 days. This is up from 406 days at the end of 2009, and up from 499 days at the end of November.
• Overall, mortgage delinquencies dropped nearly 18% in 2010.
• On the other hand, foreclosure inventories were up almost 10% in 2010, and are now at nearly 8x historical averages
• “First-time” foreclosures are on the decline, with over 30% of new foreclosure starts having been in foreclosure before

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph provided by LPS Applied Analytics shows the percent delinquent, percent in foreclosure, and total non-current mortgages.

The percent in the foreclosure process is trending up because of the foreclosure moratoriums.

According to LPS, 8.83% of mortgages are delinquent (down from 9.02% in November), and another 4.15% are in the foreclosure process (up from 4.08% in November) for a total of 12.98%. It breaks down as:

• 2.56 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 2.12 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2.2 million loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 6.87 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure.

The second graph shows the break down of serious deliquencies.

LPS reported "the share of seriously delinquent loans that have not made payments in over a year continues to increase.".

Note: I've seen some people include these 7 million delinquent loans as "shadow inventory". This is not correct because 1) some of these loans will cure, and 2) some of these homes are already listed for sale (so they are included in the visible inventory).

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2011 08:30:00 AM

CR Note: Many analysts use the quarterly Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey from the Census Bureau to estimate the number of vacant housing units in the United States. This survey probably overstates the number of vacant units.

From economist Tom Lawler ...

Early Look at a Few States’ Housing Stock Numbers from Census 2010 Suggests that Housing Vacancy Survey Massively Overstates Number of Vacant Housing Units

The Census Bureau has starting releasing Census 2010 data for selected states, with the first “batch” being Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. On its website, the data shown include not just population counts, but housing counts as well – occupied as well as vacant. I don’t know if these are the “final, official” housing count totals, but here are the data shown on the website for these states. Also shown are the counts from Census 2000 (NOT adjusted for subsequent “overcounts/undercounts,” as well as the gross vacancy rates (total vacant units – including seasonal – divided by total housing units) for Census 2010, Census 2000, and the gross vacancy rates from the Housing Vacancy Survey HVS) and the ACS for 2009 (2010 data have not yet been released).

	Louisiana	Mississippi	New Jersey	Virginia
Census 2010 (4/1/10)
Population	4,533,372	2,967,297	8,791,894	8,001,024
Housing Units	1,964,981	1,274,719	3,553,562	3,364,939
Occupied	1,728,360	1,115,768	3,214,360	3,056,058
Vacant	236,621	158,951	339,202	308,881
Census 2000 (4/1/00)
Population	4,468,976	2,844,658	8,414,350	7,078,515
Housing Units	1,847,181	1,161,953	3,310,275	2,904,192
Occupied	1,656,053	1,046,434	3,064,645	2,699,173
Vacant	191,128	115,519	245,630	205,019
Gross Vacancy Rate
	Louisiana	Mississippi	New Jersey	Virginia
Census 2010	12.00%	12.50%	9.50%	9.20%
Census 2000	10.30%	9.90%	7.40%	7.10%
HVS 2009	14.00%	16.40%	12.10%	12.20%
ACS 2009	14.00%	14.60%	10.50%	10.80%

What is, of course, especially noteworthy is that the “gross” vacancy rates from the HVS for 2009 (which are yearly average estimates) are massively higher than the Census 2010 estimates for April 1, 2010, as well as being materially higher than those from the ACS for 2009. As I have noted numerous times, the HVS has for at least a decade “found” materially higher gross vacancy rates for most areas (Louisiana being an exception) than the ACS, and “found” materially higher gross vacancy rates for 2000 than was the case for Census 2000. I’ve talked to folks about this, but no one seems to know why.

What is also interesting is that the gross vacancy rate from Census 2010 for the above states is substantially lower than those shown in the ACS for 2009. While given the low level of housing production it would not be surprising that the gross vacancy rate on April 1, 2010 would be lower than the average for 2009, it’s hard to believe that the “actual” gross vacancy rate in these states declined by as much as that suggested by assuming that the ACS 2009 GVR and the Census 2010 GVR were both “correct.”

Not surprisingly, the gross vacancy rates in the above states from Census 2010 were all up significantly from Census 2000. However, it would appear as the GVRs did not increase by as much as suggested either in the HVS (state data are only available back to 2005) or the ACS, and it seems clear that the HVS’ estimates for TOTAL vacant housing units is a boatload higher than the “actuals.”

Next week the Census is scheduled to release Census 2010 data for Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, and Vermont, and the deadline for data releases for all states is, intriguingly, April Fools’ Day.

by Calculated Risk on 2/06/2011 06:15:00 PM

I'm watching some sporting event with friends. I posted most of this list yesterday, and there were quite a few comments and emails - so while I'm distracted, here is a repeat for those who missed it - enjoy!

Earlier today:
• Summary for Week ending February 5th
• Schedule for Week of Feb 6th

Commentary this week:
• Monday: QE2 Speculation and Summary
• Tuesday: Economic Outlook and Daily Summary
• Wednesday: Daily Color: D-List Data
• Thursday: Employment Situation: A Lighter Shade of Gray
• Friday: Daily Color: Two Employment Surveys, Different Results

Click on graph for larger image.

A repeat from Friday ...

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - aligned at maximum job losses.

In terms of lost payroll jobs, the 2007 recession is by far the worst since WWII, and the "recovery" for payroll jobs is one of the slowest.

Here are the employment posts from Friday (with graphs):
• January Employment Report: 36,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Diffusion Indexes
• Employment Graph Gallery

by Calculated Risk on 2/06/2011 02:28:00 PM

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDP is now slightly above the pre-recession peak. Real GDP (in 2005 dollars) was at $13,382.6 billion in Q4, just 0.14% above the $13,363.5 billion in Q4 2007.

Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed - and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph is for real GDP through Q4 2010. This shows real GDP is back to the pre-recession peak. However there are really two measures of GDP: 1) real GDP, and 2) real Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The BEA will release GDI with the 2nd GDP estimate, and I expect GDI will not be above the pre-recession peak until this quarter (Q1 2011).

And real GDP has performed better than other indicators ...

This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments as a percent of the previous peak.

This has been slow to recover - and is still 4.3% below the previous peak.

Much of the growth in PCE over the last year has come from transfer payments - this includes people taking Social Security early, extended unemployment benefits, and other assistance programs - and it will be some time before this indicator returns to pre-recession levels.

And two more graphs to show two key monthly indicators:

This graph is for industrial production through December.

Industrial production has been one of the stronger performing sectors because of inventory restocking and some growth in exports.

However industrial production is still 5.8% below the pre-recession peak, and it will probably be some time before industrial production returns to pre-recession levels.

The final graph is for employment. This is similar to the graph I post every month comparing percent payroll jobs lost in several recessions.

Payroll employment is still 5.6% below the pre-recession peak. And even with slightly above trend GDP growth in 2011, payroll employment growth will probably only recover slowly.

Payroll employment is still 7.7 million below the pre-recession peak, and if the the U.S. adds 2.5 million payroll jobs per year over the next 3 years (my current forecast is 2.4 million private sector jobs this year), it would take 3+ years to return to the pre-recession peak. And that doesn't include population growth!

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending February 5th
• Schedule for Week of Feb 6th

by Calculated Risk on 2/06/2011 08:50:00 AM

Note: here is the economic schedule for the coming week.

Two ongoing stories ...
• Egypt: From the NY Times: Muslim Brotherhood Join Egypt Talks

As Western powers backed the Egyptian vice president’s [Omar Suleiman] attempt to defuse a popular uprising, the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood joined other groups meeting with him on Sunday in what seemed a significant departure in the nation’s uprising and political history.

• Europe: From the WSJ: European Leaders Clash at Summit

Sharp disagreements opened up among European Union leaders at a summit here over a German-led plan to boost the competitiveness of weaker euro-zone economies, threatening to unsettle recently calm European financial markets.

Below is a summary of the previous week, mostly in graphs.

• January Employment Report: 36,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate

The Employment Situation report contained mixed signals with a sharp drop in the unemployment, but few payroll jobs added. The BLS mentioned that severe weather impacted the payroll report. The following graph shows the employment population ratio, the participation rate, and the unemployment rate.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The unemployment rate decreased to 9.0% (red line).

The Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 64.2% in January (blue line). This is the lowest level since the early '80s. (This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years.)

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.4% in January (black line).

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms from the start of the recession. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

For the current employment recession, the graph starts in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only the early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) declined to 8.407 million in January.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that declined sharply to 16.1% in January from 16.7% in December. Still very high, but improving.

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 6.21 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down from 6.44 million in December. This is still very high.

Summary

This was a decent report with two obvious exceptions: the few payroll jobs added, and the slight decline in the average workweek - both potentially weather related.

The best news was the decline in the unemployment rate to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. However this was partially because the participation rate declined to 64.2% - a new cycle low, and the lowest level since the early '80s.

The 36,000 payroll jobs added was far below expectations of 150,000 jobs, however this was probably impacted by bad weather during the survey reference period. If so, there should be a strong bounce back in the February report.

• Q4 2010: Homeownership Rate Falls to 1998 Levels

The Census Bureau reported the homeownership and vacancy rates for Q4 2010 this week.

The homeownership rate was at 66.5%, down from 66.9% in Q3. This is at about the level as 1998.

The homeownership rate increased in the '90s and early '00s because of changes in demographics and "innovations" in mortgage lending. Some of the increase due to demographics (older population) will probably stick, so I've been expecting the rate to decline to around 66%, and probably not all the way back to 64%.

The homeowner vacancy rate increased to 2.7% in Q4 2010 from 2.5% in Q3 2010.

This has been bouncing around in the 2.5% to 2.7% range for two years, and is slightly below the peak of 2.9% in 2008.

A normal rate for recent years appears to be about 1.7%.

The rental vacancy rate declined sharply to 9.4% in Q4 2010, from 10.3% in Q3 2010.

This fits with the recent Reis data showing apartment vacancy rates fell in Q4 2010 to 6.6%, down from 7.1% in Q3 2010, and 8% in the Q4 2009.

This also fits with the NMHC apartment market tightness index that has indicated tighter market conditions for the last four quarters.

• ISM Manufacturing Index increased in January

PMI at 60.8% in January, up from 58.5% in December. The consensus was for a reading of 57.9%. ISM's New Orders Index registered 67.8 percent in January, and ISM's Employment Index registered 61.7 percent. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

This was a strong report and above expectations. The new orders and employment indexes were especially strong.

• Private Construction Spending decreased in December

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Both private residential and non-residential construction spending decreased in December.

Residential spending is 66.5% below the peak in early 2006, and non-residential spending is 37% below the peak in January 2008.

Sometime this year (in 2011), residential construction spending will probably pass non-residential spending. Although I expect the recovery in residential spending to be sluggish, residential investment will probably make a positive contribution to GDP and employment growth in 2011 for the first time since 2005. And that is one of the reasons I think growth (both GDP and employment) will be better in 2011 than in 2010.

• U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increased in January to 12.62 million SAAR

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 12.62 million SAAR in January. That is up 17.5% from January 2010, and up 1.0% from the sales rate last month (Dec 2010). This is the highest sales rate since August 2008, excluding Cash-for-clunkers in August 2009. This was at the consensus estimate of 12.6 million SAAR.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate. The current sales rate is still near the bottom of the '90/'91 recession - when there were fewer registered drivers and a smaller population.

• ISM Non-Manufacturing Index showed expansion in January

The January ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 59.4%, up from 57.1% in December. The employment index showed faster expansion in December at 54.5%, up from 52.6% in December. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

• Other Economic Stories ...
• Chicago PMI Strong
• Fed: Little Change in Lending Standards in January Loan Officer Survey, Outlook "more upbeat"
• Personal Income and Outlays Report for December
• Restaurant Performance Index Shows Expansion in December
• ADP: Private Employment increased by 187,000 in January
• Fed Chairman Bernanke: The Economic Outlook and Macroeconomic Policies
• Unofficial Problem Bank list at 946 Institutions

Best wishes to all!