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Thursday, February 03, 2022

Friday: Employment Report

by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2022 10:37:00 PM

My January Employment Preview

Goldman January Payrolls Preview

• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for January.   The consensus is for 155 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%.  There were 199 thousand jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.9%.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Percent fully Vaccinated63.9%---≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)212.1---≥2321
New Cases per Day3415,552636,024≤5,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩2,3692,286≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases and hospitalizations are now declining.

Unfortunately, deaths are still rising, but well below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.