by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2022 10:37:00 PM

My January Employment Preview

Goldman January Payrolls Preview

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for January.   The consensus is for 155 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%.  There were 199 thousand jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.9%.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	63.9%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	212.1	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	415,552	636,024	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	124,134	142,482	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	2,369	2,286	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases and hospitalizations are now declining.

Unfortunately, deaths are still rising, but well below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.