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Friday, February 04, 2022

January Employment Report: 467 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2022 08:47:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.
emphasis added
Year-over-year change employmentClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In January, the year-over-year change was 6.61 million jobs.  This was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 467 thousand in January.  Private payrolls increased by 444 thousand, and public payrolls increased 23 thousand.

Payrolls for November and December were revised up 709 thousand, combined.

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 23 months after the onset, is now significantly better than the worst of the "Great Recession".

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.2% in January, from 61.9% in December. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 59.7% from 59.5% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate increased in January to 4.0% from 3.9% in December.

This was well above consensus expectations; and November and December payrolls were revised up by 709,000 combined.  

On the annual benchmark revision:
The total nonfarm employment level for March 2021 was revised upward by 374,000. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, total nonfarm employment for March 2021 was revised downward by 7,000, or less than -0.05 percent.
I'll have more later ...