In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Thursday, February 03, 2022

Goldman January Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2022 03:57:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls declined by 250k, 400k below consensus of +150k. Our forecast reflects a large and temporary drag from Omicron on the order of 500-1000k, as survey data indicate a surge in absenteeism during the month ... We estimate an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.9%—in line with consensus—reflecting likely declines in both household employment and labor force participation due to the virus wave.
emphasis added
CR Note: The consensus is for 155 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%.