Thursday, July 30, 2020

BEA: Real GDP Decreased at 32.9% Annualized Rate in Q2

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2020 08:35:00 AM

Note: This is the advance release. Most analysts expect downward revisions as more data become available.

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 27, 2020.
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The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The decrease in PCE reflected decreases in services (led by health care) and goods (led by clothing and footwear). The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in goods (led by capital goods). The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail (led by motor vehicle dealers). The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a decrease in equipment (led by transportation equipment), while the decrease in residential investment primarily reflected a decrease in new single-family housing.
emphasis added
The advance Q2 GDP report, at minus 32.9% annualized, was close to expectations.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased at 34.6% annualized rate in Q2, down from 6.9% decrease in Q1.  Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 38.7% rate in Q2. Equipment investment decreased at a 37.7% annualized rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 34.9% pace.

I'll have more later ...