Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Thursday: Q2 GDP, Unemployment Claims

by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2020 08:39:00 PM

Note that GDP is reported on an annual rate basis. So a 34% decline in GDP doesn't mean that the economy shrunk by one-third. This will mean the economy declined close to 10% in Q2 from Q1.

The largest quarterly decline (since date reported in 1947), reported on an annual rate basis, was -10% in Q1 1958. The worst quarter during the financial crisis, on an annual rate basis, was -8.4%. The decline in Q2 will dwarf those previous declines.

The worst annual decline was in 1932 during the Great Depression (12.9%), but the quarterly data isn't available for that period.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2020 (advance estimate), and annual update. The consensus is that real GDP decreased 34.0% annualized in Q2, down from -5.0% in Q1.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The early consensus is for a 1.550 million initial claims, up from 1.416 million the previous week.