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Thursday, July 30, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 1,434,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2020 08:46:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,434,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 1,416,000 to 1,422,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,368,500, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,750 from 1,360,250 to 1,362,000
emphasis added
The previous week was revised up.

This does not include the 829,697 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA).

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 1,368,500.

Initial weekly claims was slightly below the consensus forecast of 1.5 million initial claims and the previous week was revised up.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims increased to 17,018,000 (SA) from 16,151,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates. Note that continued claims are released with a one week lag, but this increase (during the BLS reference week for the employment report) suggests weakness in the labor market.

Note: There are an additional 12,413,322 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.