In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Comments on November Existing Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2019 12:24:00 PM

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.35 million in November

A few key points:

1) Existing home sales were up 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in November. This was the fifth consecutive month with a YoY increase - following 16 consecutive months with a YoY decrease in sales

2) Inventory is still low, and was down 5.7% year-over-year (YoY) in November.

Existing Home Sales YoY Click on graph for larger image.

3) Year-to-date sales are down about 1.1% compared to the same period in 2018.   On an annual basis, that would put sales around 5.28 million in 2019, down from 5.34 million in 2018.

Sales slumped at the end of 2018 and in January 2019 due to higher mortgage rates, the stock market selloff, and fears of an economic slowdown.

The comparisons will be easy in December of this year, and with lower mortgage rates, sales will probably finish the year mostly unchanged from 2018.

Existing Home Sales NSAThe second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Sales NSA in November (404,000, red column) were slightly below sales in November 2018 (406,000, NSA).   Note: There were fewer selling days in November 2019 compared to 2018.

Overall this was a solid report.