Friday, December 21, 2018

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s

by Bill McBride on 12/21/2018 03:14:00 PM

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent on December 21, down from 2.9 percent on December 18. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 4.1 percent to 3.7 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [Dec 21 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for 2018:Q4 and 2.1% for 2019:Q1. [Dec 21 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.