Friday, December 21, 2018

Q3 GDP Revised Down to 3.4% Annual Rate

by Bill McBride on 12/21/2018 08:34:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2018 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2018 (revised estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent. With this third estimate for the third quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports were revised down, and private inventory investment was revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same
emphasis added
PCE growth was revised down from 3.6% to 3.5%. Residential investment was revised down from -2.6% to -3.6%. This was slightly below the consensus forecast.

Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates.