by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2018 09:01:00 AM

In previous shutdowns, Government data from the BLS, BEA and Census Bureau were delayed. Data from the Federal Reserve was released on time.

As an example, if the government shuts down, I expect New Home sales - currently scheduled for next Thursday - to be delayed. Unemployment claims will probably be released on time.

The following week, the key report that will probably be delayed is the employment report for December.

If the shutdown continues, then data gathering will be impacted - and economic observers will be flying blind.

In addition, any shutdown will be expensive and impact Q1 GDP. Hopefully the shutdown will be avoided.