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Friday, April 03, 2015

Update: Private Job Creation during Presidential Terms

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2015 07:33:00 PM

In February, I mentioned that private job creation was on pace for the best ever during a presidential term. I received a few emails asking if that was correct.  The answer was "yes".  After the report this morning, the current presidential term is on pace for 2nd.

Note: We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, or any other marker.

Here is a table of the top three presidential terms for private job creation (they also happen to be the three best terms for total non-farm job creation).

Note: Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the '80s.  The prime working age labor force was growing more than 3% per year in the '80s with a surge in younger workers and women joining the labor force. Now, the overall population is larger, but the prime working age population has declined this decade and the participation rate is generally declining now.

Clinton's two terms were the best for both private and total non-farm job creation, followed by Reagan's 2nd term.  Public sector job creation increased the most during Reagan's 2nd term.

Currently Obama's 2nd term is on pace to be the 2nd best ever for private job creation.  However, with very few public sector jobs added, Obama's 2nd term is only on pace to be the third best for total job creation.

Note: Only 21 thousand public sector jobs have been added during the first twenty six months of Obama's 2nd term (following a record loss of 702 thousand public sector jobs during Obama's 1st term).  This is less than 2% of the public sector jobs added during Reagan's 2nd term!

Top Employment Gains per Presidential Terms (000s)
RankTermPrivatePublic Total Non-Farm
1Clinton 110,88569211,577
2Clinton 210,0701,24211,312
3Reagan 29,3571,43810,795
  Obama 215,869215,890
126 Months into 2nd Term
2Current Pace for Obama's 2nd Term

The second table shows the jobs need per month for Obama's 2nd term to be in the top three presidential terms.

Average Jobs needed per month (000s)
for Obama's 2nd Term
to RankPrivateTotal