Friday, March 01, 2013

Personal Income declined 3.6% in January, Spending increased 0.2%

by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2013 08:48:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for January:

Personal income decreased $505.5 billion, or 3.6 percent ... in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $18.2 billion, or 0.2 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.1 percent in January, the same increase as in December. ... PCE price index -- the price index for PCE increased less than 0.1 percent in January, in contrast to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent in December. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $283.9 billion in January, compared with $797.4 billion in December. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 2.4 percent in January, compared with 6.4 percent in December.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through January (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal spending increased about as expected in January.

Ignore the sharp decline in income and decline in the saving rate - that decline was because some people took income in December to avoid higher taxes in 2013.